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Joe Biden: polls of approval and favorability
#1
I suppose that it is time to see how different things are with Joe Biden than with Donald Trump. 

A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.

Quote:First Reuters/Ipsos poll on Biden-

Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 32%

Trump's first poll had him at 43%.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf

Assessment:

Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure. 

Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky. 

President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President  (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.  

With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement. 

At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024. 

Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.

We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states. 

I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election. 

It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#2
It was 55% approval among adults polled, and 57% among registered voters. Disapproval was the same for both groups.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#3
(01-23-2021, 01:58 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I suppose that it is time to see how different things are with Joe Biden than with Donald Trump. 

A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.

Quote:First Reuters/Ipsos poll on Biden-

Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 32%

Trump's first poll had him at 43%.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf

Assessment:

Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure. 

Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky. 

President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President  (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.  

With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement. 

At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024. 

Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.

We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states. 

I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election. 

It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
Biden is a one term President at best. I seriously doubt he'll be able to finish his term. You can't hide him forever. The government is on trail now and Biden is more or less a side show at this point. You better start paying attention to what the polls have to say about it instead of Biden.
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#4
(01-26-2021, 01:53 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Biden is a one term President at best. I seriously doubt he'll be able to finish his term. You can't hide him forever. The government is on trail now and Biden is more or less a side show at this point. You better start paying attention to what the polls have to say about it instead of Biden.

You can just ignore this thread then, and make your own if you want.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#5
(01-26-2021, 01:53 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(01-23-2021, 01:58 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I suppose that it is time to see how different things are with Joe Biden than with Donald Trump. 

A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.

Quote:First Reuters/Ipsos poll on Biden-

Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 32%

Trump's first poll had him at 43%.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf

Assessment:

Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure. 

Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky. 

President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President  (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.  

With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement. 

At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024. 

Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.

We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states. 

I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election. 

It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
Biden is a one term President at best. I seriously doubt he'll be able to finish his term. You can't hide him forever. The government is on trail now and Biden is more or less a side show at this point. You better start paying attention to what the polls have to say about it instead of Biden.

My only questions of Biden running for a second term are, as I assume a competent Presidency on his part, are of his health. Anyone 80 years old is living on luck even if he had good habits going into old age. I am reasonably certain that he has already contemplated this.  A try for a second term may be stopped by his perception of health.

He may see himself as a transition to something very different from what we now have... but not the person who will be around when that transformation goes beyond the initial stage. An America tied to the last completed Skowronek cycle in which nothing matters except elite power, indulgence, and gain will seek to bring America back to such. Reactionaries with the means have always done that, and American reactionaries with such means will be no different from those of other times and places.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#6
(01-26-2021, 02:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 01:53 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Biden is a one term President at best. I seriously doubt he'll be able to finish his term. You can't hide him forever. The government is on trail now and Biden is more or less a side show at this point. You better start paying attention to what the polls have to say about it instead of Biden.

You can just ignore this thread then, and make your own if you want.
Why would I ignore this thread? You have your own forum that I have no interest in joining with a group of people that I have no interest in defeating again. Why don't you post this stupid stuff there? I mean, you can all celebrate and pat each other on the back and tell each other how great you guys are and so forth.
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#7
(01-26-2021, 03:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 01:53 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(01-23-2021, 01:58 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I suppose that it is time to see how different things are with Joe Biden than with Donald Trump. 

A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.

Quote:First Reuters/Ipsos poll on Biden-

Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 32%

Trump's first poll had him at 43%.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf

Assessment:

Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure. 

Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky. 

President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President  (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.  

With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement. 

At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024. 

Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.

We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states. 

I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election. 

It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
Biden is a one term President at best. I seriously doubt he'll be able to finish his term. You can't hide him forever. The government is on trail now and Biden is more or less a side show at this point. You better start paying attention to what the polls have to say about it instead of Biden.

My only questions of Biden running for a second term are, as I assume a competent Presidency on his part, are of his health. Anyone 80 years old is living on luck even if he had good habits going into old age. I am reasonably certain that he has already contemplated this.  A try for a second term may be stopped by his perception of health.

He may see himself as a transition to something very different from what we now have... but not the person who will be around when that transformation goes beyond the initial stage. An America tied to the last completed Skowronek cycle in which nothing matters except elite power, indulgence, and gain will seek to bring America back to such. Reactionaries with the means have always done that, and American reactionaries with such means will be no different from those of other times and places.
Dude, he's a place marker for Kamala Harris and that's it. Once she's in power, the country will most likely begin parting ways because the government will have no integrity left at that point. You're completely blind/clueless dude. You are on the Reactionary side dude. I don't know what it's going to take to sink it into your head at this point. I guess you'll just have to accept it after the nation splits with the Democrats.
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#8
(01-26-2021, 03:58 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, he's a place marker for Kamala Harris and that's it. Once she's in power, the country will most likely begin parting ways because the government will have no integrity left at that point. You're completely blind/clueless dude. You are on the Reactionary side dude. I don't know what it's going to take to sink it into your head at this point. I guess you'll just have to accept it after the nation splits with the Democrats.

That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. He baited people for their religion or ethnicity. He put America in a trade war that at first seemed likely to lose the farm vote, and then he showered Rural America with crop subsidies as a salve. Using the Treasury as a cover for incompetence or perverse decisions is very bad practice.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#9
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.
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#10
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote: Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

Except the crisis pattern is for the progressive side to start solving problems. If the crisis problems are COVID, the economic fallout of COVID, the racial inequality, the red violence, with an honorable mention to global warming, that is all happening. That is all of the executive orders and the legislative agenda. If people are getting sick of all the problems, obstruction and arguments, we are more likely to advance to the high than drop back into the endless debate, to crush the obstruction and anti science.

Not too early at all unless you are in denial. A lot of red folk seem to be. They are projecting Biden as weak and the administration as doing nothing. I am expecting and seeing the crisis focus and drive.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#11
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

For now, he get's a bye-me, because he's not Trump and because it's typical for new Presidents to get a honeymoon.  Biden seems to know that he needs to get real things done quickly, so relief checks are a must-do, and an easy sanity check on the GOP willingness to go along (unlikely as that is).  And yes, the libertarians will not be happy. Assume more regulation, and god knows it's needed.  Raising taxes and similar things that the centrist Dems don't want will be much further down the road.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#12
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

The first priority is to undo the erratic and offensive deeds of the previous President. 


Quote:So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

Libertarianism is no less utopian than Marxism. It depends upon assumptions of human nature that either are never true or never stay so. So far as I can see, libertarians see no higher purpose in life than economic growth through profit, with indulgence following. Three key problems arise with this.  First, it fails to recognize that people are not all Homo oeconomicus, an entity with no purposes in life other than making an income and indulging upon the product. Like Marxism it denies any spiritual or aesthetic qualities, moral values (aside from acquiescence in soulless materialism and acceptance of severe inequality of economic result), or human solidarity and empathy. Like most utopias, Libertarianism morphs quickly into a nightmare... or people tire of something that gets stale and sordid as time passes.

Second, most people would find a position at which some super-prosperity at which people get deluged with 'stuff' and with the unwelcome solicitations for what one finds irrelevant. Solicitation becomes incredibly cheap, and you get a flood spam. Suppose that like perhaps the vast  majority of Americans you hate classical music and baroque architectural design. Maybe you will get  an appeal to do what would be your nightmare: a visit to Austria on a package tour that has multiple concerts of the music of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and tours of palaces and cathedrals full of baroque architecture and furnishings. Never mind that I would probably love it. (I'd ask the poster Taramarie what she thinks  about that. She might suggest that I have a stopover in beautiful Slovakia, which is somewhat similar except for using a Slavic language instead of German). For many people such a tour would be a nightmare! Freedom to do mass marketing is part of the freedom of libertarianism, and much of what gets marketed is unwelcome to many people. (I think I would far prefer Vienna to "Vegas", but plenty of people believe the opposite). But the indulgence that goes with a super-prosperity also comes at a price of the depletion of resources and the ravaging of the environment. Even if one relies upon solar power or nuclear energy to supplant petroleum and supplement hydroelectric power one still has the menace of waste heat.  

Third, all social orders have depended upon some system of command and control. Much unpleasant work, like cleaning, food-processing, construction work, and serving, can be done well only if done in a climate of fear. All societies ever known have depended upon an economic hierarchy of indulgence and deprivation to ensure that people who do the most unpleasant but unnecessary tasks face the brutality of the noose as swift death or hunger and cold as slow death... and that those who do such work be poor and dependent.  If the economic elites (who will remain such, only even more so) act without conscience, then they will come to resemble feudal lords.            


Quote:More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

The closest analogues in power to Presidents of the United States in command of the most imposing empire of the time are the Roman Emperors. The Roman political system even had some semblance of a two-party political system with a literal Senate. Roman emperors were usually elected at the end of the era of a predecessor, and typically the electors chose the son of the deceased Emperor unless that Emperor had been violently overthrown. I'm not going to say that our political system is derived from the Roman Empire (the Founding Fathers modeled our Constitutional system upon that of the Republic of Venice, which had existed for over 1300 years and had great internal stability and some semblance of representative government... and itself seemed an imitation of the Roman Republic that the Founding Fathers themselves also admired), but one of the greatest oversimplifications of history that holds involves the three Roman Empires most despised soon after the demise of each. The disdain of those who overthrew Caligula, Nero, and Commodus remains intact to this day to the extent that those three are warnings against Emperors better at diverting the masses than in stewardship of the finances, maintenance of public works, sound foreign policy, and overall integrity. In contrast we have the Antonine Emperors who had no sons by birth but adopted competent successors as sons, and those pleased the Roman Senate. 

The Antonine Emperors are generally seen to this day the best of the Roman Emperors... except for one, Commodus, who was the literal son of Marcus Aurelius, the most famous example of the ideal of the philosopher-king. Unfortunately for Rome, Commodus followed Aurelius... and acted far more like his predecessors Nero and Caligula, erratic rulers who wasted the razor-thin resources of Roman taxation on lavish expressions of personality cults complete with wild and costly celebrations of those personality cults that accentuated the claim that the Emperor was a god. The better emperors played down their official divinity, recognizing that they were mortal (after all, Julius Caesar had demonstrated the mortality of the flesh of a "divine" Emperor, a fair warning to one of the wiser Emperors). An aside on the pagan Emperors and Christianity: all of the persecution of Christianity was related to the denial of Christians of the possibility of a worldly Emperor, like any other entity worldly or supernatural, as a god as a rival, partner, or peer of their One God, something that the Romans considered a new and ominous superstition. Judaism was old and hence well- developed, and somehow avoided persecution. Pagan Emperors considered Judaism legitimate but Christianity not so legitimate. The better Roman Emperors didn't push the Imperial cult upon Christians as such blatant confrontation as did the bad ones like Nero, Caligula, and Commodus... who saw Christianity as an evil meriting extermination. As the late American comedian George Carlin put it in a spoof of Imperial Rome of the norms of American broadcasting "and now a score from the Colosseum: Lions ate (pun on the homophone "eight"), Saints eaten. The Romans also used bears and tigers for that purpose.

I'm not going to say that Donald Trump is quite as bad as Nero, Caligula, or Commodus; at the least he has not ramped up the activity of any gladiatorial contests, let alone used those as entertainment to divert people from their political and economic distress or to dispose of political and cultural enemies. Detractors of the most derided three bad Roman Emperors at least give them credit for being entertaining. To make a long story short with respect to both Roman pathology and contemporary politics in America, it is far better that people buy their own entertainment than that they rely upon the Government to supply it. We can all concede that Donald Trump has been more entertaining than such a political snooze as Barack Obama, but that Donald Trump hasn't resorted to televised performances of bears or big cats killing political or religious dissidents. It's up to us to seek and acquire our own entertainment, whether it is a piano concerto by Mozart or Roller Derby without Big Government paying for it. Ideally we all earn and take enough for fulfilling such a need instead of relying upon the government to dispose of people with some ghastly form of death. The sickness of disposing of inconvenient people in murderous entertainment, one must recall happened in Nazi concentration camps in which guards had half-starved dogs attack helpless inmates. Dogs have the power, speed, agility, strength, cunning, and voracity that one associates with bears and Big Cats, and a pack of dogs kills much like one large predator of similar size. If so provoked or perversely trained, four 100-pound dogs are effectively one 400-pound tiger. Good behavior is all that keeps even one 100-pound dogs from fitting neatly into the 'man-eater' category, and that good behavior is both human and canine. Be a burglar, mugger, or rapist and Canis lupus familiaris quickly becomes Canis tigris or Canis leo. Be a Nazi guard like Irma Grese and one can also transform Canis lupus familiaris into Canis tigris or Canis leo and transform inmates into dog food. 

It is not my power to determine that 'right' entertainment is spending a big chunk of disposable income on watching opera... or on watching  "Ultimate Fighting". It's a matter of taste, and such is not for rational discussion.  With a Caligula-like, Nero-like, or Commodus-like leader we might have sick entertainment in which people die of animal attack. A moose, which the Romans did not have at their disposal, would have served that sick purpose well. So would crocodiles and some sharks in a costly aquarium. 

Back to the derision that I have of Trump: he could entertain in his sick way. He was also far under the norms of conduct that one associates with Presidents. For example, he was far more corrupt than  Warren G. Harding and much more a fornicator than Bill Clinton. It is far better that we elect politicians who fit some norms of moral conduct and rely on our own abilities to entertain ourselves or having the means of buying entertainment that won't rot all our minds and souls than that we rely upon some political leader to entertain us with performances that rot the minds and souls of practically everyone.                     

Quote:Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

It is up to those on the conservative side of the political spectrum to rediscover conscience, caution, and kindness and allow rational processes to establish a distinction between truth and falsehood.  Then and only then might they serve as bars to the inevitable liberal perversions of the government role in the economy. With conservative politics of the 3T, political life was largely the frustration of any liberal efforts to shake anything up when the liberals had a trifecta in government control (Presidency and both Houses of Congress) and "my-way-or-the-highway" with economic and administrative power when the Right had control of the political trifecta. Remember that the cycle tends to go from the depraved 3T to a tumultuous 4T and in turn to a 1T that is more of a legitimate give-and-take.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#13
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 03:58 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, he's a place marker for Kamala Harris and that's it. Once she's in power, the country will most likely begin parting ways because the government will have no integrity left at that point. You're completely blind/clueless dude. You are on the Reactionary side dude. I don't know what it's going to take to sink it into your head at this point. I guess you'll just have to accept it after the nation splits with the Democrats.

That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. He baited people for their religion or ethnicity. He put America in a trade war that at first seemed likely to lose the farm vote, and then he showered Rural America with crop subsidies as a salve. Using the Treasury as a cover for incompetence or perverse decisions is very bad practice.
We'll see how much better you are off in four years and whether there's enough of the country left to continue supporting people like you. What's a group of butt hurt farmers worth when compared to the bulk of the American economy? I think America could either replace them with American minded farmers or politically steam roll them and deal with their petty beefs afterwards. If you think you're going change/fix the issues related to Chinese trade by being nice and bowing down and sucking up and using a white glove then you're being naive. Trump hurt them enough, scared them enough to force them to the table. BTW, taxing Chinese goods and using those funds to cover loses by American farmers was a brilliant move dude. It's to bad the mentally incompetent person that you elected isn't capable of doing that or anything else that takes more wit to figure out and accomplish these days. So, who is making all these lame brain decisions and goals for Biden these days? Who is/are the puppet master? The more you speak the more you deserve to live out your final days begging on some street corner and living in a tent.
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#14
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.
He took one hard question the other day and managed to mumble his way through it with only a few mistakes. So, plan on one depending on his day and don't expect anymore than one hard question every other day or possibly one a week depending on how well his handlers think he's doing. I think its pretty clear that the dude isn't thinking about anything and pretty much doing whatever he's told and whatever Democrats expect him to do at this point. One other thing, there aren't many go along to get along GOP believers left these days.
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#15
(01-26-2021, 03:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

For now, he get's a bye-me, because he's not Trump and because it's typical for new Presidents to get a honeymoon.  Biden seems to know that he needs to get real things done quickly, so relief checks are a must-do, and an easy sanity check on the GOP willingness to go along (unlikely as that is).  And yes, the libertarians will not be happy. Assume more regulation, and god knows it's needed.  Raising taxes and similar things that the centrist Dems don't want will be much further down the road.
I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating remains fixed. The Democratic side seems to be very self absorbed and high on itself as usual and uninterested in the advancement of any other groups than themselves which is why a major threat of some sort will be needed/used to pop their bubble and bring them back down to earth.
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#16
(01-26-2021, 01:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote: Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

Except the crisis pattern is for the progressive side to start solving problems.  If the crisis problems are COVID, the economic fallout of COVID, the racial inequality, the red violence, with an honorable mention to global warming, that is all happening.  That is all of the executive orders and the legislative agenda.  If people are getting sick of all the problems, obstruction and arguments, we are more likely to advance to the high than drop back into the endless debate, to crush the obstruction and anti science.

Not too early at all unless you are in denial.  A lot of red folk seem to be.  They are projecting Biden as weak and the administration as doing nothing.  I am expecting and seeing the crisis focus and drive.
You are going by what occurred in the previous cycle instead of going by where we are at as a nation today. How many Americans need Progressives to tell them the difference between right and wrong, good and bad or need to have them around to fix and sort the inequity associated with a particular race or gender and need them to determine the difference between men and women or boys and girls or determine what we will have to fund and shore up for them remain relevant and keep their power and acquire more power for themselves. Do you know what I think, I think most of America is smart enough, talented enough and advanced enough to get rid of the Progressives altogether and opt to move on together as a country. So, who is overreacting and causing more problems than any of them are worth today.

Biden is weak and thoughtless and pretty much already on his way out. Who is behind the curve and clinging to Biden and still clinging laurels and beliefs associated with a bygone age. It took one act of red related violence for Washington DC to cut itself off and isolate itself from the rest of the country. What kind of a government does that? It's not a confident government or a strong government or an American based government, its a Democratic government that knows that it has to cheat to win. So, how far are we away from tarring and feathering the Democrats and watching as Democratic cities are over run by millions of riff raff and seeing Democratic heads being removed by guillotines. So, how many years have the Democrats been preaching the blue gospel while lining their own pockets? Welcome to the 4T.
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#17
(01-26-2021, 06:30 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 01:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote: Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

Except the crisis pattern is for the progressive side to start solving problems.  If the crisis problems are COVID, the economic fallout of COVID, the racial inequality, the red violence, with an honorable mention to global warming, that is all happening.  That is all of the executive orders and the legislative agenda.  If people are getting sick of all the problems, obstruction and arguments, we are more likely to advance to the high than drop back into the endless debate, to crush the obstruction and anti science.

Not too early at all unless you are in denial.  A lot of red folk seem to be.  They are projecting Biden as weak and the administration as doing nothing.  I am expecting and seeing the crisis focus and drive.

You are going by what occurred in the previous cycle instead of going by where we are at as a nation today. How many Americans need Progressives to tell them the difference between right and wrong, good and bad  or need to have them around to fix and sort the inequity associated with a particular race or gender and need them to determine the difference between men and women or boys and girls or determine what we will have to fund and shore up for them remain relevant and keep their power and acquire more power for themselves. Do you know what I think, I think most of America is smart enough, talented enough  and advanced enough to get rid of the Progressives altogether and opt to move on together as a country. So, who is overreacting and causing more problems than any of them are worth today.

No, you are stuck in the idea that a 4T can reliably preserve highly-unpopular 3T trends despite their depravity. Donald Trump exemplified that, and he is rapidly becoming irrelevant. You may find it tolerable that people endure ever-increasing hardships on behalf or economic elites devoid of any responsibility except to themselves. The cycle turns, and it casts off the mud.

Quote:Biden is weak and thoughtless and pretty much already on his way out. Who is behind the curve and clinging to Biden and still clinging laurels and beliefs associated with a bygone age. It took one act of red related violence for Washington DC to cut itself off and isolate itself from the rest of the country. What kind of a government does that? It's not a confident government or a strong government or an American based government, its a Democratic government that knows that it has to cheat to win.  So, how far are we away from tarring and feathering the Democrats and watching as Democratic cities are over run by millions of riff raff and seeing Democratic heads being removed by guillotines. So, how many years have the Democrats been preaching the blue gospel while lining their own pockets? Welcome to the 4T.

It was Donald Trump who was so weak in character. Nobody expects an exact return to the New Deal era. That treacherous insurrection disrupted a predictable session of Congress, and did nothing more than to disgrace the participants. It had no precedent in American history. Americans have always accepted the definitive result of the Electoral College even when it decided (as in 2000 and 2016) that the second-place finisher in the popular vote won the votes that counted. We live in a federal system, and the states really elect the People.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
Polling on multiple issues:

[Image: wat_01252021.jpg]

I'm not saying that this will stick. President Biden has far more room with which to take necessary risks, but I would rather start with all approval ratings on all these issues  at or above 57% than with most well below 50%. Not every move will be popular.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#19
(01-26-2021, 04:32 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 03:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: For now, he get's a bye-me, because he's not Trump and because it's typical for new Presidents to get a honeymoon.  Biden seems to know that he needs to get real things done quickly, so relief checks are a must-do, and an easy sanity check on the GOP willingness to go along (unlikely as that is).  And yes, the libertarians will not be happy. Assume more regulation, and god knows it's needed.  Raising taxes and similar things that the centrist Dems don't want will be much further down the road.

I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating remains fixed. The Democratic side seems to be very self absorbed and high on itself as usual and uninterested in the advancement of any other groups than themselves which is why a major threat of some sort will be needed/used to pop their bubble and bring them back down to earth.

After 4 years of Trump and only Trump, there's no reason to look outside the long list of must-dos Biden already has.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#20
(01-26-2021, 04:32 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 03:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:35 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 06:33 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: That is far better than what we just had, someone who saw Big Government as one huge patronage scheme to enrich people like him and to enforce the will of such people. 

Ummm.... from where I sit, that looks exactly like the Biden presidency too.  Except, 'people like him' basically means establishment politicians and the sectors of the economy that have bought them.

So, from a libertarian perspective, politics as usual.  Isn't it great things are back to normal  Rolleyes

More seriously, though, from the EOs passed (over 30) and the bills on the agenda, it does feel as if Biden's role is to rubber stamp the wish list of the various parts of the DNC coalition.  It goes beyond just reversing what Trump had done and into sweeping changes that will affect the country for decades to come.  His approval rating now is mostly because he isn't Trump, not sure how long it will last once people realize there is more going on than that.  OTOH, the media is completely covering for him with such hard-hitting questions as 'will he redecorate Air Force One' and sighs of how wonderful it is that his tweets are 'boring.'

Too early to tell what any of this means in a 4T perspective except that it is clear the DNC is acting in full Crisis Mindset (us v. them, our agenda uber alles) while a good half of the GOP still thinks if they cave enough we can get back to a 3T give-and-take.  Bodes well for those who welcome the coming Utopia ™, I guess.

For now, he get's a bye-me, because he's not Trump and because it's typical for new Presidents to get a honeymoon.  Biden seems to know that he needs to get real things done quickly, so relief checks are a must-do, and an easy sanity check on the GOP willingness to go along (unlikely as that is).  And yes, the libertarians will not be happy. Assume more regulation, and god knows it's needed.  Raising taxes and similar things that the centrist Dems don't want will be much further down the road.

I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating remains fixed. The Democratic side seems to be very self absorbed and high on itself as usual and uninterested in the advancement of any other groups than themselves which is why a major threat of some sort will be needed/used to pop their bubble and bring them back down to earth.

Good reason existed for Trump support going as low as it did several times, and if it spiked just before the election (but not enough to get him re-elected) he destroyed what could have been whatever legacy he had as President. Most of us are going to remember the worst, and undoing that worst will be a huge achievement. 

President Biden treats COVID-19 with the seriousness of a military threat as if it were the Axis Powers. It may be generally awkward to have as President someone whose oldest members are turning 96 if still alive... yes, Paul Newman and Johnny Carson would both be turning 96 this year if still alive. Biden has good people around him, and good staffing is an essential part of solid leadership. Good staffing precludes surrounding oneself with yes-men. Getting America inoculated will put an end to the 2020 Plague.  Much more about Donald Trump is objectionable.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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