2022 midterm polls

[Eric the Green]

The polls are starting to see a turnaround after the latest supreme court disasters. Will it continue? Will Americans of the United States wake up to the enormous need for a true Democratic majority in our House and Senate?

You can see the latest polls are the most Democratic-leaning. We've a long way to go, and Biden remains way down.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...ic-ballot/

[pbrower2a]

I do not predict the direction of polling results, but something is extremely different about this midterm election than about any of the prior ones. Donald Trump casts a huge shadow that President Biden can erase only with the tiny flashlight that he has been granted.

This said, the GOP is still tied closely, in all but a few cases, to Donald Trump and increasingly to crimes of abuse of power that he committed in the name of the power of his Party. Add to this, Trump's Supreme Court acts in its majorities as if it is a cell of the John Birch Society in its decisions on reproductive rights and the responsibilities of police, and who knows what is next. It's going to take much more than a little perfume to remove the stench of Donald Trump.

[Eric the Green]

Raphael Warnock has a 1 or 2 point lead on Herschel Walker, former football player, also African-American, but there the similarity ends. If, thanks to Republican vote rigging, Herschel wins, he might theoretically replace Warnock as a potential presidential candidate. So I checked out his horoscope score, and it's 4-10. So if Warnock's almost-reverse positive score of 11-4 means something in the Georgia senate race, as it would in the US presidential race, Warnock will win, and thereby become a potential presidential candidate. Here is Warnock in a brilliant interview on PBS. "People who have no vision traffic in division".





If Warnock were to run in 2024, however, he would face a Saturn Return in 2028, which means that if elected he would be caught up in the emerging civil war scenario and would not likely be re-elected. So it might be worth the risk for him or for us, if he were to run against Trump or DeSantis. Given the indicator showing the challenging Party has an edge, he might not prevail over Tim Scott. Warnock's score is slightly better than Scott's, but other indicators show a possible win by the challenging Party, so a better margin in the score would be preferable; even Joe Biden's.

Herschel has a poor score, but he doesn't face the Saturn Return if he were to run in the future for president.

Remember, even if you don't believe astrology works, the scores are very consistent in showing which candidates have the best appeal as US presidential candidates. The scores are almost entirely based on actual history and the win and loss records of all viable presidential candidates from 1789 to 2020 compared to aspects in their charts.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

Another outside-shot Democratic presidential candidate, if the Republicans pick a likely loser, is Mark Kelly (score 13-7), another senator filling a vacated seat now running for re-election in a swing state, AZ. He has appeal as an astronaut and husband of a medal of freedom winner.

[pbrower2a]

(07-16-2022, 12:13 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Raphael Warnock has a 1 or 2 point lead on Herschel Walker, former football player, also African-American, but there the similarity ends. If, thanks to Republican vote rigging, Herschel wins, he might theoretically replace Warnock as a potential presidential candidate. So I checked out his horoscope score, and it's 4-10. So if Warnock's almost-reverse positive score of 11-4 means something in the Georgia senate race, as it would in the US presidential race, Warnock will win, and thereby become a potential presidential candidate. Here is Warnock in a brilliant interview on PBS. "People who have no vision traffic in division".





If Warnock were to run in 2024, however, he would face a Saturn Return in 2028, which means that if elected he would be caught up in the emerging civil war scenario and would not likely be re-elected. So it might be worth the risk for him or for us, if he were to run against Trump or DeSantis. Given the indicator showing the challenging Party has an edge, he might not prevail over Tim Scott. Warnock's score is slightly better than Scott's, but other indicators show a possible win by the challenging Party, so a better margin in the score would be preferable; even Joe Biden's.

Herschel has a poor score, but he doesn't face the Saturn Return if he were to run in the future for president.

Remember, even if you don't believe astrology works, the scores are very consistent in showing which candidates have the best appeal as US presidential candidates. The scores are almost entirely based on actual history and the win and loss records of all viable presidential candidates from 1789 to 2020 compared to aspects in their charts.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

Another outside-shot Democratic presidential candidate, if the Republicans pick a likely loser, is Mark Kelly (score 13-7), another senator filling a vacated seat now running for re-election in a swing state, AZ. He has appeal as an astronaut and husband of a medal of freedom winner.

Aside from an ideological token, the sort of African-American who creates the least trouble among southern whites may be the preacher. Much more than is so among white people, African-American intellectual talent ends up among clergy, which may explain why much of the top political talent among African-Americans has been clergy. OK, Barack Obama never preached, but he certainly learned from African-American preachers and such was a huge contributor to his rhetorical style. 

Except for the Wealth Cult preachers who might as well be white, these preachers do well at winning debates. They ill fit ugly stereotypes that whites (the marginal racists) often have against blacks. Contrast Herschel Walker, who is now practically an ugly stereotype of a semi-literate, amoral black man who pretends to be super-smart and does sleazy stuff. (One can only wonder how much Walker has played around, which is not a racial slur. This smear also applies to Donald Trump, one of the most egregious fornicators who has paid for his sex or conned people into non-marital sex).   You can easily trust me on this: it is far easier for a smart person to play dumb than for a dumb person to play smart and pull it off. Smart people in my experience may not like it, but they find it useful for relating to dumb people and avoiding resentments from dimwits.  

Senator Raphael Warnock, should he be elected President at some point to be President would be a pioneer for being the first slave-descended President (Obama is the son of an African immigrant, which is a huge cultural difference). Note well: what we Americans consider the Establishment is itself changing, and someone like Senator Raphael Warnock is part of it. 

Only rarely do I hear someone speak for 18 minutes and agree with everything that he says. I hardly knew what he is, but I can understand how he got elected. He appealed to the best in us, a clear contrast to someone who appealed to the moral and ideological gutter. He is not going to cut slack for people who choose ignorance and criminality.    

Would America be ready for him? Sure. It voted for Barack Obama in a near-landslide and re-elected  him  decisively.

[Classic-Xer]

(07-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I do not predict the direction of polling results, but something is extremely different about this midterm election than about any of the prior ones. Donald Trump casts a huge shadow that President Biden can erase only with the tiny flashlight that he has been granted.

This said, the GOP is still tied closely, in all but a few cases, to Donald Trump and increasingly to crimes of abuse of power that he committed in the name of the power of his Party. Add to this, Trump's Supreme Court acts in its majorities as if it is a cell of the John Birch Society in its decisions on reproductive rights and the responsibilities of police, and who knows what is next. It's going to take much more than a little perfume to remove the stench of Donald Trump.

Do you have any idea what a REAL example of "Abuse of Power" actually looks like PB? So, how are the Jan 6th Kangaroo Court ratings these days? Are they any higher than they were several months ago or has America pretty much moved on for the most part like I told you several months ago? Like I've mentioned to you before, you better pick the best Blue shit hole that you can think of now vs leaving the decision on what to do with all of you up to US.

[David Horn]

(07-28-2022, 07:50 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(07-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I do not predict the direction of polling results, but something is extremely different about this midterm election than about any of the prior ones. Donald Trump casts a huge shadow that President Biden can erase only with the tiny flashlight that he has been granted.

This said, the GOP is still tied closely, in all but a few cases, to Donald Trump and increasingly to crimes of abuse of power that he committed in the name of the power of his Party. Add to this, Trump's Supreme Court acts in its majorities as if it is a cell of the John Birch Society in its decisions on reproductive rights and the responsibilities of police, and who knows what is next. It's going to take much more than a little perfume to remove the stench of Donald Trump.

Do you have any idea what a REAL example of "Abuse of Power" actually looks like PB? So, how are the Jan 6th Kangaroo Court ratings these days? Are they any higher than they were several months ago or has America pretty much moved on for the most part like I told you several months ago? Like I've mentioned to you before, you better pick the best  Blue shit hole that you can think of now vs leaving the decision on what to do with all of you up to US.

Turn off  Fox and OANN.  Try anything not tied to the far right, and see if your arguments still hold.  The 1/6 commission has staged as solid a show based, not on lefty interviews, but solidly on Trump's own people.  Even hardcore Trumpists have been staggered -- assuming they taek the time ands trouble to be aware.  So on to November.

I can't claim to know the results of voting then, any more than anyone else, but enthusiam on the right is down (based on fund raising and polling), while enthusiasm on the left is up -- way up.  it's hard to know how that plays, but the women are seriously pissed about the SCOTUS steals leading to a loss of their rights.  It could be blood bath. 

2024 is vastly more important.  Prediction: Trump runs again, but the Dem is not Biden.  Look for a surprise, like Gretchen Whitmore or even a cross-over Republican as VP.

[Eric the Green]

(07-29-2022, 07:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-28-2022, 07:50 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(07-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I do not predict the direction of polling results, but something is extremely different about this midterm election than about any of the prior ones. Donald Trump casts a huge shadow that President Biden can erase only with the tiny flashlight that he has been granted.

This said, the GOP is still tied closely, in all but a few cases, to Donald Trump and increasingly to crimes of abuse of power that he committed in the name of the power of his Party. Add to this, Trump's Supreme Court acts in its majorities as if it is a cell of the John Birch Society in its decisions on reproductive rights and the responsibilities of police, and who knows what is next. It's going to take much more than a little perfume to remove the stench of Donald Trump.

Do you have any idea what a REAL example of "Abuse of Power" actually looks like PB? So, how are the Jan 6th Kangaroo Court ratings these days? Are they any higher than they were several months ago or has America pretty much moved on for the most part like I told you several months ago? Like I've mentioned to you before, you better pick the best  Blue shit hole that you can think of now vs leaving the decision on what to do with all of you up to US.

Turn off  Fox and OANN.  Try anything not tied to the far right, and see if your arguments still hold.  The 1/6 commission has staged as solid a show based, not on lefty interviews, but solidly on Trump's own people.  Even hardcore Trumpists have been staggered -- assuming they taek the time ands trouble to be aware.  So on to November.

I can't claim to know the results of voting then, any more than anyone else, but enthusiam on the right is down (based on fund raising and polling), while enthusiasm on the left is up -- way up.  it's hard to know how that plays, but the women are seriously pissed about the SCOTUS steals leading to a loss of their rights.  It could be blood bath. 

2024 is vastly more important.  Prediction: Trump runs again, but the Dem is not Biden.  Look for a surprise, like Gretchen Whitmore or even a cross-over Republican as VP.

I tend to think vice versa. Trump does not get the nomination, but Biden does-- because there's no-one else. A cross-over Republican VP? Obviously not a trumper. I don't know any such Republicans who are also not neoliberals, and a neoliberal is not compatible with a Democratic president. And such a Democratic nominee had better not cave in and compromise with neoliberalism. It needs to go!

Midterms are just as important as presidential elections. A surprise? We can't count on that. Obama: "you cannot sit back and wait for a savior..... all we need is hard-working people, who are accountable, and they will step up and join our government, and make things better, IF they have support." That support comes in the midterms, and that's where today's civic generation need to become civics and know this, and "show up". Biden needs support now. And if a Democrat wins in 2024, (s)he will need support in 2026.

https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=2836

[David Horn]

(07-29-2022, 05:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I tend to think vice versa. Trump does not get the nomination, but Biden does-- because there's no-one else. A cross-over Republican VP? Obviously not a trumper. I don't know any such Republicans who are also not neoliberals, and a neoliberal is not compatible with a Democratic president. And such a Democratic nominee had better not cave in and compromise with neoliberalism. It needs to go!

If Biden runs again, the Dems lose ... period! The Millies are already doing non-stop eyerolls at President Grandpa, and they're been a hard sell for the Dems in any case. The Dems have no chanc of winning without serious Milennial support, so Biden has to go. I would be shocked if he doesn't know that. And rationnal Republicans do exost: Larry Hgan being the most obvious. Lookl at serving GOPpoers in Blue states.

Eric Wrote:Midterms are just as important as presidential elections. A surprise? We can't count on that. Obama: "you cannot sit back and wait for a savior..... all we need is hard-working people, who are accountable, and they will step up and join our government, and make things better, IF they have support." That support comes in the midterms, and that's where today's civic generation need to become civics and know this, and "show up". Biden needs support now. And if a Democrat wins in 2024, (s)he will need support in 2026.

Wishing isn't a strategy, and wishing seems to be the only thing in play. Let's admit it, to energize the Dem voters requires something dramatic, and Biden, et al, don't do dramatic. They had better learn fast. Support is soft to say the least, and a little excitement may be the difference between hollow non-participatory handwaving and a solid turnoput at the polls.

[Eric the Green]

(08-01-2022, 02:54 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2022, 05:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I tend to think vice versa. Trump does not get the nomination, but Biden does-- because there's no-one else. A cross-over Republican VP? Obviously not a trumper. I don't know any such Republicans who are also not neoliberals, and a neoliberal is not compatible with a Democratic president. And such a Democratic nominee had better not cave in and compromise with neoliberalism. It needs to go!

If Biden runs again, the Dems lose ... period!  The Millies are already doing non-stop eyerolls at President Grandpa, and they're been a hard sell for the Dems in any case.  The Dems have no chance of winning without serious Milennial support, so Biden has to go.  I would be shocked if he doesn't know that. And rationnal Republicans do exist: Larry Hogan being the most obvious.  Look at serving GOPpoers in Blue states.

Eric Wrote:Midterms are just as important as presidential elections. A surprise? We can't count on that. Obama: "you cannot sit back and wait for a savior..... all we need is hard-working people, who are accountable, and they will step up and join our government, and make things better, IF they have support." That support comes in the midterms, and that's where today's civic generation need to become civics and know this, and "show up". Biden needs support now. And if a Democrat wins in 2024, (s)he will need support in 2026.

Wishing isn't a strategy, and wishing seems to be the only thing in play.  Let's admit it, to energize the Dem voters requires something dramatic, and Biden, et al, don't do dramatic. They had better learn fast.   Support is soft to say the least, and a little excitement may be the difference between hollow non-participatory handwaving and a solid turnoput at the polls.

Nah, Biden can win, and he's all the Dems got. He still intends to run. Gretchen Whitmer will never win. Newsom can win, but he won't run if Biden does, and he's more likely to win in 2028 than in 2024. It is wishful thinking indeed to think any other Democrat besides Biden can beat a strong Republican. And yes, Biden can do dramatic. Again I remind you of his two speeches at the start of the year. I posted them here. He is not dramatic a lot of the time, but when he revs himself up, he is.

Obama: "you can't opt out because you're not sufficently inspired by this or that particular candidate. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella." Millennials need to learn that, and accept President Grandpa. They and everyone needs to stop blaming Biden for inflation. If they do, his poll numbers will rise.

Rational Republicans have no chance to be nominated. Zero. Even the high-scoring New York governor Pataki gave up even before the primaries. Low-scoring Hogan has zero chance. The Republicans will put up DeSantis, or maybe Trump. Biden can beat either of them. Tim Scott has no poll standing, but he would if he runs, and he'd be tough for any Democrat to beat. Tom Cotton could be a successor to Trump too and could win. But there is no hope for any of these irrational Republicans to be a good president.

Polls show enthusiasm among Democrats voters is up to 76%, while the strange, kooky, cruel Republicans still have 88% enthusiasm for their horrific destruction, according to NBC as of yesterday. Generic polls for the midterms between Democrats and Republicans are even at this point. The Dems need to be at least a few points ahead to win.

[pbrower2a]

We'll see how the polls go when the news of the demise of a major terrorist sinks in.

[David Horn]

(08-01-2022, 03:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nah, Biden can win, and he's all the Dems got. He still intends to run. Gretchen Whitmer will never win. Newsom can win, but he won't run if Biden does, and he's more likely to win in 2028 than in 2024. It is wishful thinking indeed to think any other Democrat besides Biden can beat a strong Republican. And yes, Biden can do dramatic. Again I remind you of his two speeches at the start of the year. I posted them here. He is not dramatic a lot of the time, but when he revs himself up, he is.

Biden is both an incrementalist and an institutionalist. Those may be admirable traits for a 1T President like Eisenhower (though Ike was a Lost, not a Silent) or during quiet times in any Turning, that's far from the case today. I-dotting and T-crossing grate when anyone alive and well knows the critical state of just about everything.

Eric Wrote:Obama: "you can't opt out because you're not sufficently inspired by this or that particular candidate. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella." Millennials need to learn that, and accept President Grandpa. They and everyone needs to stop blaming Biden for inflation. If they do, his poll numbers will rise.

What they need to do and what they will, in fact, actually do have almost nothing to do with one another. Millennials have proven to be too tied to their devices to see the world as it is, and their expectations are in the instant-gratification domain. In short, Biden is President Grandpa, and that's not changing.

Eric Wrote:Rational Republicans have no chance to be nominated. Zero. Even the high-scoring New York governor Pataki gave up even before the primaries. Low-scoring Hogan has zero chance. The Republicans will put up DeSantis, or maybe Trump. Biden can beat either of them. Tim Scott has no poll standing, but he would if he runs, and he'd be tough for any Democrat to beat. Tom Cotton could be a successor to Trump too and could win. But there is no hope for any of these irrational Republicans to be a good president.

I doubt Hogan would consider running in the GOP primaries this year, and if he does, it will be as a spoiler. He could be tapped on a Unity ticket (not done since Lincoln), but that would require a Dem willing to take that risk -- again.

Eric Wrote:Polls show enthusiasm among Democrats voters is up to 76%, while the strange, kooky, cruel Republicans still have 88% enthusiasm for their horrific destruction, according to NBC as of yesterday. Generic polls for the midterms between Democrats and Republicans are even at this point. The Dems need to be at least a few points ahead to win.

Here we agree. Assuming the worst negatives moderate: gas and food prices decline, foreign affairs stay either in the backgound or a few more 'wins' emerge, then the anger may abate and nature of the GOP could become the primary issue. The 1/6 Commission has been skillful. Now, the Justice Department needs to step-up. Tthe MAGA hard core are not reachable, but other, less wacky Republicans and most Independents are. The shift woesn't need to be huge.

[Eric the Green]

(08-02-2022, 10:57 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2022, 03:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nah, Biden can win, and he's all the Dems got. He still intends to run. Gretchen Whitmer will never win. Newsom can win, but he won't run if Biden does, and he's more likely to win in 2028 than in 2024. It is wishful thinking indeed to think any other Democrat besides Biden can beat a strong Republican. And yes, Biden can do dramatic. Again I remind you of his two speeches at the start of the year. I posted them here. He is not dramatic a lot of the time, but when he revs himself up, he is.

Biden is both an incrementalist and an institutionalist.  Those may be admirable traits for a 1T President like Eisenhower (though Ike was a Lost, not a Silent) or during quiet times in any Turning, that's far from the case today.  I-dotting and T-crossing grate when anyone alive and well knows the critical state of just about everything.

Eric Wrote:Obama: "you can't opt out because you're not sufficently inspired by this or that particular candidate. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella." Millennials need to learn that, and accept President Grandpa. They and everyone needs to stop blaming Biden for inflation. If they do, his poll numbers will rise.

What they need to do and what they will, in fact, actually do have almost nothing to do with one another.  Millennials have proven to be too tied to their devices to see the world as it is, and their expectations are in the instant-gratification domain.  In short, Biden is President Grandpa, and that's not changing.

Eric Wrote:Rational Republicans have no chance to be nominated. Zero. Even the high-scoring New York governor Pataki gave up even before the primaries. Low-scoring Hogan has zero chance. The Republicans will put up DeSantis, or maybe Trump. Biden can beat either of them. Tim Scott has no poll standing, but he would if he runs, and he'd be tough for any Democrat to beat. Tom Cotton could be a successor to Trump too and could win. But there is no hope for any of these irrational Republicans to be a good president.

I doubt Hogan would consider running in the GOP primaries this year, and if he does, it will be as a spoiler.  He could be tapped on a Unity ticket (not done since Lincoln), but that would require a Dem willing to take that risk -- again.

Eric Wrote:Polls show enthusiasm among Democrats voters is up to 76%, while the strange, kooky, cruel Republicans still have 88% enthusiasm for their horrific destruction, according to NBC as of yesterday. Generic polls for the midterms between Democrats and Republicans are even at this point. The Dems need to be at least a few points ahead to win.

Here we agree.  Assuming the worst negatives moderate: gas and food prices decline, foreign affairs stay either in the backgound or a few more 'wins' emerge, then the anger may abate and nature of the GOP could become the primary issue.  The 1/6 Commission has been skillful.  Now, the Justice Department needs to step-up.  The MAGA hard core are not reachable, but other, less wacky Republicans and most Independents are.  The shift doesn't need to be huge.

I don't see Biden as any more incrementalist than any of the candidates you have suggested. Biden had adopted some of Bernie's platform planks and priorities. He offered a transformational program typical of 4Ts. Because not enough Democrats were elected to the Senate with him, 2 senators have changed his agenda into a more incrementalist one. That was done by Manchin and Sinema, NOT Biden. No president, I don't care how young or how charismatic, can get much of anything done without a congress.

Millennials proved that they could come out during midterms in 2018. Obama's urging helped. Whether that happens in 2022 is still in question. Rising enthusiasm and the dead heat now in the polls shows it is possible.

Hogan said he believes in a Republican Party like Reagan's. That is too far right for a Democrat to add to a ticket.

[David Horn]

(08-02-2022, 01:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't see Biden as any more incrementalist than any of the candidates you have suggested. Biden had adopted some of Bernie's platform planks and priorities. He offered a transformational program typical of 4Ts. Because not enough Democrats were elected to the Senate with him, 2 senators have changed his agenda into a more incrementalist one. That was done by Manchin and Sinema, NOT Biden. No president, I don't care how young or how charismatic, can get much of anything done without a congress.

Observe the difference in style between the two parties. McConnell, certainly no spring chicken himself, is always confrontational. When he ran the House, Paul Ryan was as well. Trump takes that to the outer limit. All three are admired, and attract more followers than they repel -- and that with a platform that is toxic to the max. Dems universally come across as sympathetic but weak. These days, weak is a deal breaker.

Eric Wrote:Millennials proved that they could come out during midterms in 2018. Obama's urging helped. Whether that happens in 2022 is still in question. Rising enthusiasm and the dead heat now in the polls shows it is possible.

Assuming that they are as scared now as they were then, you might have a point. My fear: they see nothing in the Dems and decide to just sit this one out. There is no way to know just how savvy they are as a generation. Sometimes they seem on top of the game, and other times they seem almost child like. If they fail to understand the long term risk of short term actions, this could get very ugly.

Eric Wrote:Hogan said he believes in a Republican Party like Reagan's. That is too far right for a Democrat to add to a ticket.

I don't see Hogan entering, but note: he's a doer not a talker. When Maryland needed masks and PPE in the early days of the pandemic, he and his Korean wife contacted the Korean government and asked for help. They got an entire charter flight full of masks and other personal protection -- in two days. Forget his philosophy and concentrate on him as an executor.

[Eric the Green]

(08-02-2022, 04:30 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-02-2022, 01:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't see Biden as any more incrementalist than any of the candidates you have suggested. Biden had adopted some of Bernie's platform planks and priorities. He offered a transformational program typical of 4Ts. Because not enough Democrats were elected to the Senate with him, 2 senators have changed his agenda into a more incrementalist one. That was done by Manchin and Sinema, NOT Biden. No president, I don't care how young or how charismatic, can get much of anything done without a congress.

Observe the difference in style between the two parties. McConnell, certainly no spring chicken himself, is always confrontational. When he ran the House, Paul Ryan was as well. Trump takes that to the outer limit. All three are admired, and attract more followers than they repel -- and that with a platform that is toxic to the max. Dems universally come across as sympathetic but weak. These days, weak is a deal breaker.

Eric Wrote:Millennials proved that they could come out during midterms in 2018. Obama's urging helped. Whether that happens in 2022 is still in question. Rising enthusiasm and the dead heat now in the polls shows it is possible.

Assuming that they are as scared now as they were then, you might have a point. My fear: they see nothing in the Dems and decide to just sit this one out. There is no way to know just how savvy they are as a generation. Sometimes they seem on top of the game, and other times they seem almost child like. If they fail to understand the long term risk of short term actions, this could get very ugly.

Eric Wrote:Hogan said he believes in a Republican Party like Reagan's. That is too far right for a Democrat to add to a ticket.

I don't see Hogan entering, but note: he's a doer not a talker. When Maryland needed masks and PPE in the early days of the pandemic, he and his Korean wife contacted the Korean government and asked for help. They got an entire charter flight full of masks and other personal protection -- in two days. Forget his philosophy and concentrate on him as an executor.

That is to Hogan's credit. Not enough credit for me, but then I am not a Maryland voter.

I'm not sure what weak vs confrontational means. The Democrats don't seem able to choose a strong progressive many times. And what does that mean, either? You also caution against those who are too confrontational in the way leftists often are. Republicans admire their confrontational and emotional candidates; but many Democrats are independents are turned off by their Democratic confrontational and emotional candidates. So you are saying. So I am not sure you have put your finger on what's wrong with the Democrats. Your finger is somewhere in the ballpark, but not quite there I guess.

I suppose what you are saying is that Democrats need to take some lessons in good theater and salesmanship. Republicans, being preachers and capitalists, maybe are more used to sales techniques. Democrats are more likely to be social workers. Of course it matters which Democrats are chosen by voters, and frequently they only look at issues and not the skill of the candidates in how they connect with the people.

But when a skilled presidential candidate does come along, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then Democrats do just fine in that race. And of course the horoscope scores are a good indicator of this, even if not perfect. But it's hard to argue with Bill's score of 23-2 and Obama's score of 18-3. Such candidates are just not always available. Biden's score of 16-6 still shows he has some ability to connect, although the score does not take account of age. Gavin Newson, 9-2, is the best newer option out there, but indications are he might not do as well as needed in 2024. https://philosopherswheel.com/presidenti...ScoredWhat

What's wrong with Republicans? I don't think Democrats can help it if over 40% of Americans are absolutely insane and have made themselves incapable of doing democracy.

[pbrower2a]

So far the one thing that I notice about President Biden is that he makes few mistakes. If he is not an enthralling speaker, then at least what he says looks at least good in print.

President Biden has not grandstanded on the January 6 plot. Others expose it well. That is not his job. He does not direct the judiciary, where decisions of guilt and innocence, and any penal consequences in the event of a conviction, will be made. He's not issuing any Presidential pardons in some ham-handed way to attempt to bring America together. Can you imagine how many pardons Donald Trump would make if he had the chance?

He has gotten some legislative achievements, which is some measure of success.

I thought that he was a needed caretaker until America closes out the 4T, after which America would fully adapt to the norms of a 1T. He has proven himself to be more than that.

[pbrower2a]

(07-28-2022, 07:50 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(07-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I do not predict the direction of polling results, but something is extremely different about this midterm election than about any of the prior ones. Donald Trump casts a huge shadow that President Biden can erase only with the tiny flashlight that he has been granted.

This said, the GOP is still tied closely, in all but a few cases, to Donald Trump and increasingly to crimes of abuse of power that he committed in the name of the power of his Party. Add to this, Trump's Supreme Court acts in its majorities as if it is a cell of the John Birch Society in its decisions on reproductive rights and the responsibilities of police, and who knows what is next. It's going to take much more than a little perfume to remove the stench of Donald Trump.

Do you have any idea what a REAL example of "Abuse of Power" actually looks like PB? So, how are the Jan 6th Kangaroo Court ratings these days? Are they any higher than they were several months ago or has America pretty much moved on for the most part like I told you several months ago? Like I've mentioned to you before, you better pick the best  Blue shit hole that you can think of now vs leaving the decision on what to do with all of you up to US.

Abuse of power is really abuse of the powerless. I'm not going to give a scene of the Holocaust or of a lynching, but instead an illustration of a crime against the Human Spirit:


Admit it: there are plenty of books that you would like to see burned. 

Instead of the bodies I might show a monument to those that Satan Hussein had murdered in the Anfal campaign against the Kurds. That involves a regime with some marked similarities to the Third Reich, one of Saddam Hussein's models for how to do politics:



You may not like the way the exposure of evildoers involved in the Capitol Putsch is going, but then again -- maybe they should not have stormed the Capitol. Maybe people should not have tried to forge a state seal on a slate of "alternative" (that is, fake) electors. 

Joe Biden won fair and square, and if you complain that you don't like the results -- well, maybe it is best that we not rely upon the political system to get what we want in economic results and the confirmation of our cultural and scientific views. It didn't take legislation to get General Motors, the successors of Standard Oil (which include Chevron-Texaco, Exxon-Mobil, and the American part of BP) , or Wal-Mart into existence. It did not take legislation to determine the greatness of Mozart, Dostoevsky, and Cezanne. The determination that relativity is real (basically that everything somehow relates to the speed of light in a vacuum) never was discussed in any national legislature, although books written by Einstein would have been surely consigned to the flames  of a Nazi book-burning.     

History demonstrates clearly that, given a choice between the rule of law and mass anger, then the rule of law gives results that cause less embarrassment. In case you are compiling a list of people to execute in the event that your faux patriots take power... I hope that the FBI gets to you first.

[Eric the Green]

Here again are examples of how Biden can be a dramatic and articulate, if not enthralling, speaker. A speaker who can connect and arouse, if not appear youthful. Maybe when he speaks in public these days, quite often he appears tired and his words are a bit inarticulate. But when he is revved up, he can do well. And briefly also, here's an example of why Kamala Harris is NOT a good speaker.

This is one of two such speeches he made in early 2022.





Here is the other one:

[pbrower2a]

It will look better in print. It will sound better in someone else's voice. That will matter in 2024.

[Eric the Green]

(08-06-2022, 12:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will look better in print. It will sound better in someone else's voice. That will matter in 2024.

It sounded good from his voice too. We don't have anyone else to replace Biden. We need to support him, and prod him to move a bit faster.

What will matter is if anyone else is nominated. Then we are almost certain to lose!

Biden came back and beat the other Democrats and Trump for a reason. And it is not just because he won one primary election. He will come back again.

[David Horn]

(08-06-2022, 03:37 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-06-2022, 12:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will look better in print. It will sound better in someone else's voice. That will matter in 2024.

It sounded good from his voice too. We don't have anyone else to replace Biden. We need to support him, and prod him to move a bit faster.

What will matter is if anyone else is nominated. Then we are almost certain to lose!

Biden came back and beat the other Democrats and Trump for a reason. And it is not just because he won one primary election. He will come back again.

I have to go with Paul on this: an 82-year old candidate is totally anathema to governing in the rapidly changing world we inhabit today.  BTW, that whould also apply to most of the House and Senate leadership.  For once, let the Dems be the new voices in politics ... please!