Let's make fun of Trump, bash him, etc. while we can!

[The Wonkette]

(12-10-2016, 04:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Lichtman among others like Michael Moore and Rob Reiner are predicting Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't think so, since the Republicans wouldn't care about such things as the law. And after impeachment, the Senate must convict him in order to be removed from office. But Lichtman points out that in their hearts of hearts, they prefer the straight down-the-line, predictable conservative Mike Pence. And many Republicans, though they supported Trump, criticized and even defected from him during the campaign. So maybe it will happen.

I was a big adherent to Lichtman's 13 keys but I now have my doubts.  His keys were supposed to predict the [b]popular[b]vote, which is how he justified being correct in predicting Al Gore's win.  Using that same metric, his keys failed with Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2.7 million (and counting).  You can't have it both ways.

[pbrower2a]

(12-10-2016, 04:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Lichtman among others like Michael Moore and Rob Reiner are predicting Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't think so, since the Republicans wouldn't care about such things as the law. And after impeachment, the Senate must convict him in order to be removed from office. But Lichtman points out that in their hearts of hearts, they prefer the straight down-the-line, predictable conservative Mike Pence. And many Republicans, though they supported Trump, criticized and even defected from him during the campaign. So maybe it will happen.





It would certainly be better for the Democratic candidate on my cosmic scoring system if Pence runs in 2020 instead of Trump. And the Republicans might forget about Trump's particular appeal. Trump is a winning candidate, regardless of what he does or says. And if he survives in office and runs, he might win no matter what he does in office. But Pence does not even have a positive score on my system now; only 8-9. He does not have the appeal on a gut and personality or leadership-quality level to win.

That would certainly open the door for the Democrats to win in 2020, despite the new moon indicator that favors the incumbent to win the popular vote that year. An administration that has its president removed from office is not in a good position to win re-election, as the election of 1976 showed; Nixon would have been removed from office if he had not resigned. And what if Pence pardons Trump too? Gerald Ford tried that, and lost. It would likely be difficult too for an administration that suffered an impeachment and removal of its president to get many keys turned in its favor in Lichtman's system. Even Bill Clinton, with all his advantages, could not swing it for Al Gore after a term of constant distraction including an impeachment trial.

The ultimate impeachment is a military coup. Although one can get away with a chilly relationship with the senior officers and the intelligence agencies, one cannot get away with a hostile relationship. This is not simply a left-right issue; President Obama has consistently shown respect for the military and the CIA. How else could he get Osama bin Laden whacked? One need not be a chest-pounding ultra-nationalist to be an effective President in a military situation. 

The worst thing that Donald Trump could do would be to either get the Armed Forces involved in persecuting or dispatching dissidents, to commit war crimes,  or to start a war of aggression. The Armed Services still remember how badly wars went in Iraq and Afghanistan and probably do not want something bigger and worse -- like trying to impose a One China policy unilaterally using Taiwan as a base. At that I do not expect Taiwan to be a cat's paw for such madness. Most likely I would expect China to cut a deal with Taiwan -- scrap your shady independence but keep your democracy and free-enterprise system.  Then there are Iran and Venezuela, both of which have prosperous state oil companies that Big Oil might want to get hold of in the ultimate 'hostile takeover'.

But this goes beyond Lichtman's system. Had Gary Johnson gotten more votes, presumably from potential Trump voters, then Hillary Clinton would have won the election with a critical key (a significant third-party nominee) going against her even if that key had helped her.

[Eric the Green]

(12-11-2016, 11:14 AM)The Wonkette Wrote:

(12-10-2016, 04:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Lichtman among others like Michael Moore and Rob Reiner are predicting Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't think so, since the Republicans wouldn't care about such things as the law. And after impeachment, the Senate must convict him in order to be removed from office. But Lichtman points out that in their hearts of hearts, they prefer the straight down-the-line, predictable conservative Mike Pence. And many Republicans, though they supported Trump, criticized and even defected from him during the campaign. So maybe it will happen.

I was a big adherent to Lichtman's 13 keys but I now have my doubts.  His keys were supposed to predict the [b]popular[b]vote, which is how he justified being correct in predicting Al Gore's win.  Using that same metric, his keys failed with Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2.7 million (and counting).  You can't have it both ways.

Funny how that works. Now he can make a prediction, and it can come true either way. That's because in elections with a two-term Democratic incumbent president, in our times it's highly probable that the Democrat wins the popular vote and the Republican wins the electoral. It could well happen again someday.

He justifiably criticized Nate Silver's method of going by the polls. But it was he who said there was a high probability of this happening this year.

[Bob Butler 54]

With Trump questioning the "One China" policy, China has responded by calling him a 'child' and 'ignorant'.  He's been called a lot worse of course.

Through the elections, lots of predictions came out that he couldn't possibly succeed, that real soon now the American People would wake up and choose an establishment business as usual candidate.  The dissatisfied American voters backed him, though.  It seems he is going to buck the establishment business as usual approach internationally as well.  We'll just have to see if the Chinese Communist party can do better than the Democrats or Trump's Republican primary opponents.

Bush 43 was often caught in a 'deer in the headlights' look.  I had the impression that main line press photographers looked to catch that look and editors tended to select such shots as they reinforced the idea that he was an idiot out of his depth.

Trump has a smug all out grin that seems to be gathering press time along similar lines.

[pbrower2a]

(12-12-2016, 08:51 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: With Trump questioning the "One China" policy, China has responded by calling him a 'child' and 'ignorant'.  He's been called a lot worse of course.

Through the elections, lots of predictions came out that he couldn't possibly succeed, that real soon now the American People would wake up and choose an establishment business as usual candidate.  The dissatisfied American voters backed him, though.  It seems he is going to buck the establishment business as usual approach internationally as well.  We'll just have to see if the Chinese Communist party can do better than the Democrats or Trump's Republican primary opponents.

Bush 43 was often caught in a 'deer in the headlights' look.  I had the impression that main line press photographers looked to catch that look and editors tended to select such shots as they reinforced the idea that he was an idiot out of his depth.

Trump has a smug all out grin that seems to be gathering press time along similar lines.

I wonder whether Taiwan would risk becoming a cats-paw in a mad effort to overthrow the rule of the Communist Party of China. I can imagine the People's Republic of China offering some arrangement to Taiwan -- keep the democracy, the free-enterprise system, human rights, and rule of law... but give up the pretense of independence separate from China. Special Economic Zone, Taiwan. which gets the military protection of the People's Republic of China. Or be 'Finlandized', which was not the worst fate that a country could have as a neighbor of the Soviet Union.

China has overbuilt housing... it might come in handy in the event that America should many of us Americans have fear of labor camps, torture chambers, or 'disappearance' in the night. Or should Donald Trump and his Congressional puppets establish an Apartheid system. Under an Apartheid system, Chinese-Americans and many Vietnamese-Americans and thai-Americans (who are often ethnic Chinese) might find China more attractive than the USA.

[FLBones]

Is China 4T?

[Warren Dew]

(12-12-2016, 12:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(12-12-2016, 08:51 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: With Trump questioning the "One China" policy, China has responded by calling him a 'child' and 'ignorant'.  He's been called a lot worse of course.

Through the elections, lots of predictions came out that he couldn't possibly succeed, that real soon now the American People would wake up and choose an establishment business as usual candidate.  The dissatisfied American voters backed him, though.  It seems he is going to buck the establishment business as usual approach internationally as well.  We'll just have to see if the Chinese Communist party can do better than the Democrats or Trump's Republican primary opponents.

Bush 43 was often caught in a 'deer in the headlights' look.  I had the impression that main line press photographers looked to catch that look and editors tended to select such shots as they reinforced the idea that he was an idiot out of his depth.

Trump has a smug all out grin that seems to be gathering press time along similar lines.

I wonder whether Taiwan would risk becoming a cats-paw in a mad effort to overthrow the rule of the Communist Party of China. I can imagine the People's Republic of China offering some arrangement to Taiwan -- keep the democracy, the free-enterprise system, human rights, and rule of law... but give up the pretense of independence separate from China. Special Economic Zone, Taiwan. which gets the military protection of the People's Republic of China. Or be 'Finlandized', which was not the worst fate that a country could have as a neighbor of the Soviet Union.

China has overbuilt housing... it might come in handy in the event that America should many of us Americans have fear of labor camps, torture chambers, or 'disappearance' in the night. Or should Donald Trump and his Congressional puppets establish an Apartheid system. Under an Apartheid system, Chinese-Americans and many Vietnamese-Americans and thai-Americans (who are often ethnic Chinese) might find China more attractive than the USA.

The problem with the last is that China is trending more authoritarian too.

Taiwan has two political parties.  One adheres to the "one China" "policy", the other wants to be formally independent.  At the moment, the latter is in power, or the call would never have happened.  Taiwan might not want to follow in the footsteps of Hong Kong, though.

[Warren Dew]

(12-12-2016, 01:06 PM)FLBones Wrote: Is China 4T?

Yes.  They are at most a few years misaligned, since WWII started earlier and ended later for them.

[Eric the Green]

[Bob Butler 54]

I was eating out tonight and saw my first advertisement for the Donald Trump Chia Pet.  

Is he allowed to make profits off of his own likeness when he is president elect?  If he doesn't divorce himself from profiteering from his presidency, is this a high crime or misdemeanor?  Can we impeach him yet?

Stay tuned...

[pbrower2a]

(12-13-2016, 11:21 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I was eating out tonight and saw my first advertisement for the Donald Trump Chia Pet.  

Is he allowed to make profits off of his own likeness when he is president elect?  If he doesn't divorce himself from profiteering from his presidency, is this a high crime or misdemeanor?  Can we impeach him yet?

Stay tuned...

There was a Barack Obama Chia Pet. I thought it tacky at the time...

[Warren Dew]

There are Chia Pets that are not tacky?

[Eric the Green]

[Eric the Green]

Remember when Trump said at his rally in St. Louis, "when people protest, there used to be consequences. There are not consequences anymore. We've got to toughen up, folks."





specifically this:
https://youtu.be/-jw4gnoVSBM?t=8m2s

Kellyanne Conway: If You Criticize Trump, Expect To Face ‘Consequences’ (VIDEO)
By Andrew Bradford on December 15, 2016
http://www.liberalamerica.org/2016/12/15...ces-video/

Republicans love to talk about having “respect for the Constitution,” but what they really mean is they respect certain parts of the document which governs the country and ignore anything they disagree with. They love the Second Amendment and think everyone should tote a semiautomatic weapon around, but should you choose to disagree with one of these conservative loons, they want to try and punish you, acting as if freedom of speech is no longer applicable.

There can be no more perfect example of this than Donald Trump and the nitwits who so slavishly support and defend him no matter what he does. Kellyanne Conway proved that during her appearance on the MSNBC show Hardball, telling host Chris Matthews:

“People feel like with Donald Trump, they have license to say whatever the heck they want about this guy, with no consequences, with no blowback. The guy has a right to defend himself. And he rarely draws first blood. It’s when he is attacked, he likes to set the record straight.”

Last time I checked, Trump is a public figure, and we can indeed say whatever the heck we want to about him. If we were feeling especially evil and infantile, we could even suggest he wasn’t actually born in the United States and demand he show us his birth certificate, because he might have been born in Kenya and secretly be a Muslim.

When Matthews asked Conway about former Clinton campaign communications director Jen Palmeri’s remarks regarding the Trump campaign and transition team, Conway responded:

“Anytime I try to respond, I’m seen as ungracious. Why are we sore winners? I’m not a sore winner, I’m a winner. My guy’s a winner. He’s the next president of the United States. This has to stop, Chris, this incendiary rhetoric of people who just can’t admit that they lost. It has to stop, because it’s costing a lot of angst.”

It’s not going to stop, Kellyanne; not now and not ever. Know why? Because Trump is an illegitimate president who lost by nearly 3 million votes and had Russia helping him trash his opponent. And if you want to see some “consequences,” I have one word for you: Impeachment.

[Eric the Green]

We are not the people who made America great, says Trump. "We're going to make our country great again, but these are not the people." We are the people; you Trump goons who tell us to "get a job" are not, and we are the people who are going to make our country great again, which can ONLY be done by stopping YOU, and going on from there. There's got to be a whole lot of us that Trump doesn't like. Too many to rough up. Too many to jail. Too many for racist police to shoot. Too many to beat up politically incorrectly.

https://youtu.be/-jw4gnoVSBM?t=8m2s
NO
https://youtu.be/lm-tIUMCgCE
YES

[pbrower2a]

Make America Great Again -- I can already think of some of the snide commentaries.

"But only if you are rich and white"

"for Big Oil"

"as long as you don't have to work for a living"

"for anyone who gets to flaunt wealth"

"Make America Suffer Greatly" Or is it "Bigly"?

"as a polluter"

[Eric the Green]

[Eric the Green]

On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump boasted that he had no need for the Koch brothers, claiming to have rejected meetings with them and calling his Republican primary opponents “puppets” for meeting with the Kochs.

Yet, today, Trump's transition team and Cabinet are quickly filling with a number of Koch affiliates, confidantes, and business associates.

Politico has called it Trump's Koch administration. Talking Points Memo noted that “Behind Make America Great, the Koch agenda has returned with a vengeance.” Others have called Trump an unwitting “puppet” of the Koch brothers.

On the LittleSis network map embedded below, you can see how Trump's top officials and his energy, climate, and environment staff are tied to the Koch brothers and their donor networks. A full survey of all Koch-ties in Trump's transition team and Cabinet would feature a dozen or so more names—including Mike Pompeo and Jeff Sessions, Trump's nominees for CIA director and Attorney General, respectively—and look even more cluttered than the map you see. For the sake of navigability and clarity, the top staff and those most directly tied to energy and the environment are included in this map created for KochVsClean, a project of DeSmog.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2016/12/19/tr...och-allies

[Bob Butler 54]

Two of Trump's latest tweets suggest killing the F-35 program and replacing it with an improved F-18 Hornet, and a significant upgrade of our nuclear program "until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."

I'm disagreeing with both.  I don't think anyone approves of how the F-35 program has turned out.  As usual, the Pentagon asked for something considerably beyond the state of the art, and the result was overruns and extreme cost.  We have to streamline the procurement process.  However, the F-14 went into production around 1980.  This was before stealth technology was really implemented.  The vertical take off model of the F 35 is designed to replace the Harrier, another no stealth 1980s design. America is accustomed to taking air superiority for granted.  With Russia and China producing new models of stealth jets, going with 35 year old designs for our front line fighters doesn't seem prudent.

Perhaps the F35 is so bloated and expensive that it deserves to be aborted.  Perhaps we should start several redesigns for a naval air superiority fighter, a Harrier jump jet replacement and perhaps a land based air superiority plane.  The notion of designing one plane that can do every task under the sun has repeatedly failed.  Well, if one designs an air superiority plane, one can strap air to ground weapons under the wing, and it can do the job just fine.  The Phantom IIs and Eagles could do both jobs well enough, and the Eagles are still at it.

But counting on a 1980s design to do all of the above while competing with modern aircraft won't fly.  Trump ought to know better.

With regard to nuclear capability, we still have overkill MAD.  What do we need super overkill MAD for?  There is a missile gap, and it is all in our favor, if in our favor means their rubble will have smaller pebbles than our rubble.  Until someone we want to obliterate develops some pretty darn serious anti ballistic missile capability, there is no need to do more than maintain current capabilities.  We don't need to escalate a nuclear arms race.  If anyone needs to come to his senses regarding nuclear escalation, it would be Trump.

But I three quarter expect that these tweets were so much big lie and bluster, attempts to manipulate the news cycle rather than serious policy.

[pbrower2a]

"But he knows more than the generals!"

This will be an unmitigated disaster. Can you imagine Barack Obama saying anything of the sort? Not when he needed the senior officers to achieve his goals in foreign policy.

...Il Duce ha sempre ragione!
...Der Fuehrer ist immer richtig!