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If Trump loses the next election
#1
The old rules no longer apply.

Donald Trump was never supposed to be elected.  There's a general understanding amongst both sides and the powers that be in the U.S. that only proper mainstream candidates are allowed to be elected.  The left was shocked to see that the pact had been broken and that Donald Trump, who utterly fails to follow the rules for politicians, had been elected.

The American media, which is almost all left wing, decided they'd had enough, and abandoned their traditional objectivity.  They'd always had a left wing slant, but there was at least the appearance of objectivity, and this is now gone.  The media openly and blatantly oppose the president, and churn out non stop anti-Donald Trump articles and stories all day every day.

Traditional liberals are mostly unaware of this, as they can't stand Trump and so are under the illusion that the media is being objective.  But conservatives are well aware of what's happened, and they too have had enough of this.  The right now feels that the game is rigged against them, that the media is no longer playing its proper role in society and so conservative views can't be heard.  Any group which feels they can't succeed playing by the rules will seek to flip the board over and make new rules.

Trump is quite good at reading the mood of the right, and knowing what he can get away with.  If he loses the election, I think there is a very strong chance that he refuses to leave office.

Using any real or imagined justification, he claims the election wasn't fair, and that he isn't leaving.  The left's initial reaction will be to laugh, awaiting the hilarious moment when the sad old man is dragged out and tossed in a car.  But the next thing they realize, there will be a million right wingers flooding into Washington D.C., heavily armed and intent on protecting the president.

What happens next depends on what kind of support Trump can muster.  If he can get the police or secret service on his side, he can suspend congress and have his political opponents arrested.  If he can get the military on his side, he seizes control of the country.  Half the states revolt and refuse to follow the federal government, and the military moves to suppress them and force them back into compliance.  We have a civil war.

If Trump can't muster up military support, he attempts to at least hold control of D.C., with democratic congressmen in jail and whichever Supreme Court justices are willing to support him rubber stamping whatever he does.

How all this ends, I can't predict.  But we're really and truly in a Crisis now, and the old rules no longer apply.  I don't think Trump will go quietly.
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#2
I did a for laughs version of this a while ago.  I don’t put it past Trump to try.  Right now, though, the election would have to be vaguely close for him to be taken seriously at all, and the polls are not looking that way.  The people are with reforming the violent racist police.  They have until this point been favoring the scientific governors over the happy talk governors significantly, which I read as an approval to date of stringent precautions.  The infection rate in many parts of the country are going way up, and should be rather decisive by the time the election comes around.  The reopening the country to look good economically is not looking good if done before limiting the number of people infected first and having many test kits available.  

Basically, Trump took the wrong side of the crisis issues.  The progressive values traditionally wipe out the old conservative values come a crisis.  Just ask the royalists, slaveholders or isolationists.  It is looking no different this time.

And I don’t see Trump as one to admit a mistake, to radically change course.  He is apt to ride his presidency into the ground.  The problem is that he is apt to run the country into the ground too for good measure.

I cannot see the military taking orders to blatantly use force against the American People.  Trump may think he has loaded the Supreme Court, but Roberts has always been willing to vote with the liberals and Trump’s appointee went against him recently.  I could see Biden setting up shop in Camp David, giving Trump enough rope to hang himself if he wants to.

But mostly, the fact checkers are still with the traditional media while Trump lies.  An attempt to seize power would be a big risk to take when there are a lot of criminal offenses outstanding for Individual #1.

I suspect trying to see if a self pardon works is the more likely threat.  It would not surprise me if after the election, he throws pardons around freely for any people that manage to stick around.
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#3
(06-25-2020, 10:47 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: The old rules no longer apply.

Donald Trump was never supposed to be elected.  There's a general understanding amongst both sides and the powers that be in the U.S. that only proper mainstream candidates are allowed to be elected.  The left was shocked to see that the pact had been broken and that Donald Trump, who utterly fails to follow the rules for politicians, had been elected.

Trump is going to make it very difficult for someone outside the political mainstream to get elected President. Ross Perot is the last of his type in running as a middle-of-the-road reformer without connections to the political establishment who relies upon administrative skills learned outside the political arena for credibility and has no bonds to the corruption and incompetence entrenched in the political system. The generational theory suggests that we might end up with a Hero General like Washington, Grant, or Eisenhower after a major war... except that this Crisis Era is shaping up to be one without a major war for America. But if we did get such a Hero General... an Eisenhower-like leader would act far more like Obama than like Trump. Obama is a spit-and-polish type who goes by the book and deviates from that book rarely, if decisively. (The gangland-style hit on Osama bin Laden shows that Obama could learn something from an unlikely group of people. That was also the only way in which to "off" Osama bin Laden... to rub him out much as Capone rubbed out his rivals).   

For better or worse, we are not going to have a President like Ross Perot for a very long time. Donald Trump has wrecked that possibility, for better or worse.   


Quote:The American media, which is almost all left wing, decided they'd had enough, and abandoned their traditional objectivity.  They'd always had a left wing slant, but there was at least the appearance of objectivity, and this is now gone.  The media openly and blatantly oppose the president, and churn out non stop anti-Donald Trump articles and stories all day every day.

Donald Trump has forced the Overton Window well to the Right, and so far as I can tell the news media not amenable to Trump have largely stayed where they were when Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were as President: the center. The news media seem to have a left-wing slant (unless you are talking about FoX News or the Wall Street Journal, the latter because of its constituency) during a right-wing Presidency. Just don't call InfoWars a "news source".

Objective standards make Donald Trump look like a sick joke. Still, I would expect the journalistic profession to slant largely, if slightly, to the Left because people who expect to get ahead in for-profit bureaucracies with the aid of their schooling trend toward the Right. Most of America is private sector, and smart people not so right-wing might choose other careers such as medicine, research science, engineering, government service, and skilled trades -- or even starting their own businesses. In a well-functioning capitalist society, government largely does what capitalist enterprises cannot do altogether, cannot do not do well, or cannot do justly or efficiently. In a crony capitalist society such as Trump's pipe dream, no human suffering and no economic corruption can be in excess so long as it turns a profit. 



Quote:Traditional liberals are mostly unaware of this, as they can't stand Trump and so are under the illusion that the media is being objective.  But conservatives are well aware of what's happened, and they too have had enough of this.  The right now feels that the game is rigged against them, that the media is no longer playing its proper role in society and so conservative views can't be heard.  Any group which feels they can't succeed playing by the rules will seek to flip the board over and make new rules.


Let's not forget: Donald Trump is an easy target for journalistic abuse. Well, so was John Gotti.  Let us also not forget that tradition has a tendency go be rubbed out when it is no longer useful (just think of the controversies surrounding Confederate "culture"); precedent is respected as the most durable tradition because it prevents chaos where such is most unwelcome, as in the judiciary.

The Right united behind Trump and now gets to pay for its error. Unless it relates to his wife's health Mitt Romney did not run for President in 2016 despite being seemingly next in line. Romney at the least would not make the same glaring mistakes that Trump did. Unlike Trump he would be on his way to re-election this year were he President. Ted Cruz is a blatant (anal sphincter)... would Jeb Bush have been sort-of-adequate as Trump has not been?

Donald Trump has been showing us through his failures as President how to be President -- basically, don't imitate him. Obviously, recognize the validity of expertise in setting public policy. Don't bait the opposition with insults such as "little lying Adam Schiff". If one's religion is not the cornerstone of one's life, then don't make some theatrical display of piety. Respect formal learning, the only reliable means for many Americans to escape poverty.  

As I see it, what Alan Pell Crawford delineated in his Thunder on The Right, a critique of destructive trends claiming to be conservative and developing influence under Reagan has reached its absurd conclusion in Donald Trump. Crawford decried the hucksters, shysters, demagogues, bigots,  radicals, extremists, and opportunists who had assumed the title of 'conservative'. Crawford also warned liberals about such types should they ever take over liberalism. 

Conservatism of the sort that many Americans got accustomed to in the 1950's and 1960's is gone. The generational cycle suggests that something parallel will revive on such issues as economic freedom, educational content, government finance, and perhaps 'soft' treatment of serious crime. Of course it will be far more effective without the hucksters, shysters, demagogues, bigots, radicals, extremists, and opportunists who have assumed the title of 'conservative'. 


Quote:Trump is quite good at reading the mood of the right, and knowing what he can get away with.  If he loses the election, I think there is a very strong chance that he refuses to leave office.

He has done the equivalent of casting raw meat before rabid dogs. If you are to give meat to dogs, then make sure that those dogs are trustworthy enough to see you as a more reliable food source alive than dead. He got away with much until the stock market went into a tailspin and he mangled the response to a respiratory infection that has killed over 120,000 Americans and shows no sign of abating as it goes into a second and preventable wave. Take note: "mood" and "wisdom" are two very different things.   


Quote:Using any real or imagined justification, he claims the election wasn't fair, and that he isn't leaving.  The left's initial reaction will be to laugh, awaiting the hilarious moment when the sad old man is dragged out and tossed in a car.  But the next thing they realize, there will be a million right wingers flooding into Washington D.C., heavily armed and intent on protecting the president.


Such is the nature of the extreme narcissist and -- worse -- sociopaths and psychopaths. Trump is in the dangerous area between narcissism and sociopathy in which he feels entitled to hurt people because he is so wonderful a person. Donald Trump is the sort of person who claims that anything that does not go his way is unfair. Most of us have learned that getting our way all the time is a good way to set ourselves up for disaster. Some of us learned to recognize rather early that drugs, underage drinking, consorting with whores, petty theft, destructive hustles, reckless spending, and wanton carousing are bad ideas. Most Americans, including the not-so-fortunate contemporaries of Donald Trump learned the survival skill of humility that nobody does for fun but does because he needs to hold onto his miserable job necessary for avoiding even worse destitution. I have seen plenty of examples of capitalists who firmly believe that the rest of humanity exists solely to make them rich, serve their vile desires, and further entrench their political authority.  Such people fit the Marxist stereotype of the exploiter and abuser who deserves overthrow in a proletarian revolution. On the other hand, capitalists offer technological progress and consumer choice, and free markets work better even under the most flagrant monopolist than does central planning. 

Of course we need a political order capable of keeping capitalists from beating employees, working them off the clock, or paying them so little that adults must supplement their meager pay with the proceeds of child labor. I have no delusion that American capitalists and big landowners are any better than those German capitalists and big landowners of ninety years ago who found Hitler a suitable means for breaking unions, driving down wages, and destroying the competitive sector of the German economy.  In the meantime, American capitalism  seems to require mass poverty and high levels of economic rent to make the system work. Don't like it? Tough! The majority of Americans have no choice except to suffer for brutal bosses and rapacious landlords.

I see people who live at the lowest economic level in a small town, the clerks at dollar stores. Their sole joy in life often seems to go out for a drag or two on a cigarette. If I had to do such work I wounder how long I would survive... because I would want to kill myself if I lived in such a nightmare.  Millions of people work such jobs not so much because they lack the talent to do something else, but instead because their training is a mismatch for the economic market or because they have some gap in their repertory of characteristics. Capitalism at its worst  is a jungle; anyone with any weakness will be prey. 

OK, we need to humanize the capitalism that we now have.


Quote:What happens next depends on what kind of support Trump can muster.  If he can get the police or secret service on his side, he can suspend congress and have his political opponents arrested.  If he can get the military on his side, he seizes control of the country.  Half the states revolt and refuse to follow the federal government, and the military moves to suppress them and force them back into compliance.  We have a civil war.


And who would be the warriors? Trump has lost his credibility within the news media, within the police, and within the military. As Vladimir Lenin proved, revolutionaries have won when they become the paymasters for the soldiers and the police.  One does not win a revolution by being a nice guy. 


Quote:If Trump can't muster up military support, he attempts to at least hold control of D.C., with democratic congressmen in jail and whichever Supreme Court justices are willing to support him rubber stamping whatever he does.

Then there will be a rival government forming somewhere else, and it will have enough elected officials who then repudiate any politicians who side with Trump. The government in some other city will have the popular support, and "Senator Snake" who sides with Donald Trump and his dictatorial, unconstitutional regime will be where the political action.... isn't.  

Quote:How all this ends, I can't predict.  But we're really and truly in a Crisis now, and the old rules no longer apply.  I don't think Trump will go quietly.

It is possible that the Supreme Court, Congress, and the President consult with the Armed Forces to make the disgraced ex-President an offer that he can't refuse. In effect, don't be the right-wing equivalent of Salvador Allende (Chile in 1973).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#4
(06-26-2020, 12:18 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I did a for laughs version of this a while ago.  I don’t put it past Trump to try.  Right now, though, the election would have to be vaguely close for him to be taken seriously at all, and the polls are not looking that way.  The people are with reforming the violent racist police.  They have until this point been favoring the scientific governors over the happy talk governors significantly, which I read as an approval to date of stringent precautions.  The infection rate in many parts of the country are going way up, and should be rather decisive by the time the election comes around.  The reopening the country to look good economically is not looking good if done before limiting the number of people infected first and having many test kits available.

The problem with Trump is that he is unaccustomed to anyone saying NO to him and getting away with it -- unless getting away from his influence. He has appealed to the worst in many Americans, and I expect him to keep doing so. 

Like many entrepreneurs he believes that people are nothing more than Homo oeconomicus, an entity driven solely by desires and needs and best controlled by ensuring that he can meet his barest needs only at the greatest of efforts under the harshest of circumstances. This view of human nature started to lose its luster in the Enlightenment but regained some support in the Gilded Age, when in return for horrible working conditions that we would never excuse now people got unprecedented levels of technological progress and consumer choice. But workers got wise to the ugliness of the system, one that demanded an unending stream of child laborers as sacrifices to Lord Mammon as their prole parents were spent by age 35 and were seeking health through elixirs best described as cocktails of liquor and laudanum.     


Quote:Basically, Trump took the wrong side of the crisis issues.  The progressive values traditionally wipe out the old conservative values come a crisis.  Just ask the royalists, slaveholders or isolationists.  It is looking no different this time.

... and don't forget the ultimate losers of the last Crisis war: the Axis fascists

[Image: 480px-RibbentropDetentionReport.png]

defeated, disgraced, and at times executed. 


Quote:And I don’t see Trump as one to admit a mistake, to radically change course.  He is apt to ride his presidency into the ground.  The problem is that he is apt to run the country into the ground too for good measure.


He got away with much until he quit getting away with it. 


Quote:I cannot see the military taking orders to blatantly use force against the American People.  Trump may think he has loaded the Supreme Court, but Roberts has always been willing to vote with the liberals and Trump’s appointee went against him recently.  I could see Biden setting up shop in Camp David, giving Trump enough rope to hang himself if he wants to.

So it was in the Philippines in 1986, when it had to choose between someone who obviously cheated to win a rigged election, and someone who apparently won except for blatant electoral fraud. It was even more so in Romania in 1989, when Ceausescu ordered the Romanian Army to fire upon peaceful demonstrators. The Romanian Army changed sides then and there. 


Quote:But mostly, the fact checkers are still with the traditional media while Trump lies.  An attempt to seize power would be a big risk to take when there are a lot of criminal offenses outstanding for Individual #1.

The fact checkers usually watch the journalists. Now they watch the President. 

Quote:I suspect trying to see if a self pardon works is the more likely threat.  It would not surprise me if after the election, he throws pardons around freely for any people that manage to stick around.

Self-pardon? Mike Pence is spineless enough to pardon Trump on his own.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#5
(06-26-2020, 08:14 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Self-pardon? Mike Pence is spineless enough to pardon Trump on his own.

Can I do another comic version?  Trump pardons Pence on the 19th of February, then resigns.  Pence then pardons Trump, then resigns, forcing Pelosi to step in and thus loose her house seat.  Then the clock ticks a little bit, and Biden becomes president.  

Four presidents in one day?
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#6
(06-26-2020, 10:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(06-26-2020, 08:14 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Self-pardon? Mike Pence is spineless enough to pardon Trump on his own.

Can I do another comic version?  Trump pardons Pence on the 19th of February, then resigns.  Pence then pardons Trump, then resigns, forcing Pelosi to step in and thus loose her house seat.  Then the clock ticks a little bit, and Biden becomes president.  

Four presidents in one day?

Funny ... but possible.  Trump's inaugural speech was bizarre, and so has everything he's touched since then.  There's no reason to assume that ends before he's dragged away screaming.  Anything less draconian will be considered Presidential.  Angel
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#7
Not with the polling numbers that he now has. He can't undo the high disapproval numbers. Polls show Trump being crushed (9% or more) in his four weakest wins (FL, MI, PA, and WI), a shift in those four states alone of 75 electoral votes.  

[Image: Jun26.png]

https://electoral-vote.com/
    • Strongly Dem (249) dark blue 10% or higher margin

    • Likely Dem (64) light blue 5-9.9% margin

    • Barely Dem (55) white with a blue outline margin less than 5%

    • Exactly tied (38) white

    • Barely GOP (28) white with a pink outline margin less than 5%

    • Likely GOP (14) pink 5-9.9% margin

    • Strongly GOP (90) bright red 10% or higher margin


The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#8
Pbrower,

Very true, he has bad numbers. But we have several factors at play here to contend with and this could potentially tip the balance in Trump's favour:

1) The majority of people are fed up with BLM. This is not just the deplorable crowd but the average Joe. They are fed up of statues being pulled down, the looting associated with it and in general the fanaticism being shown. 

Obviously these people won't tell the polls who they are going to vote for but come November, in the privacy of the voting booth, they can vent out their frustrations.

2) Biden. He is the big one. I doubt he will be in office very long, he is not a strong candidate and more than likely is going to keep losing his mind on the campaign trail, which Trump will exploit.

3) The economy. If the economy starts to pick up after the quarantine, Trump's sins will be forgiven somewhat. If it goes into another major depression however then all bets are off.

4) Bidens VP pick. If he picks a good candidate, his hand strengthen. If he picks what I would call a BLM candidate, then that will just infuriate people even more.

5) Never trust the polls. They predicted at the end of the voting period a strong win for the Remain camp. Ten points ahead if I recall. Shocked them all on election night.

Overall, I accept a potential Biden win but I'm still cautiously certain that Trump could potentially pull this off.
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#9
(06-25-2020, 10:47 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: The old rules no longer apply.

Donald Trump was never supposed to be elected.  There's a general understanding amongst both sides and the powers that be in the U.S. that only proper mainstream candidates are allowed to be elected.  The left was shocked to see that the pact had been broken and that Donald Trump, who utterly fails to follow the rules for politicians, had been elected.

The American media, which is almost all left wing, decided they'd had enough, and abandoned their traditional objectivity.  They'd always had a left wing slant, but there was at least the appearance of objectivity, and this is now gone.  The media openly and blatantly oppose the president, and churn out non stop anti-Donald Trump articles and stories all day every day.

Traditional liberals are mostly unaware of this, as they can't stand Trump and so are under the illusion that the media is being objective.  But conservatives are well aware of what's happened, and they too have had enough of this.  The right now feels that the game is rigged against them, that the media is no longer playing its proper role in society and so conservative views can't be heard.  Any group which feels they can't succeed playing by the rules will seek to flip the board over and make new rules.

Trump is quite good at reading the mood of the right, and knowing what he can get away with.  If he loses the election, I think there is a very strong chance that he refuses to leave office.

Using any real or imagined justification, he claims the election wasn't fair, and that he isn't leaving.  The left's initial reaction will be to laugh, awaiting the hilarious moment when the sad old man is dragged out and tossed in a car.  But the next thing they realize, there will be a million right wingers flooding into Washington D.C., heavily armed and intent on protecting the president.

What happens next depends on what kind of support Trump can muster.  If he can get the police or secret service on his side, he can suspend congress and have his political opponents arrested.  If he can get the military on his side, he seizes control of the country.  Half the states revolt and refuse to follow the federal government, and the military moves to suppress them and force them back into compliance.  We have a civil war.

If Trump can't muster up military support, he attempts to at least hold control of D.C., with democratic congressmen in jail and whichever Supreme Court justices are willing to support him rubber stamping whatever he does.

How all this ends, I can't predict.  But we're really and truly in a Crisis now, and the old rules no longer apply.  I don't think Trump will go quietly.

The media is not left wing, it is centrist. News media are still owned by corporations, not by the people. Mostly, they just report the facts from AP and Reuters, and mix in quite a bit of sensationalism to add ratings.

If the stories about Trump are negative every day, it's because everything he does IS negative every day. The media does not invent what he does; it just reports it. No one who is objective would report Trump's misdeeds and paint them as virtuous.

The only side that is rigging the game is the conservatives. They suppress voting rights and take people off the rolls that shouldn't be taken off, and they control the senate and the electoral college which were instituted in order to maintain slavery. The right wing has control of most of the courts now, and they have had control of the congress and the presidency for almost all of the last 40 years. The USA has been stagnating or regressing for 40 years since Reaganomics took over and made itself the prevailing philosophy of the state. That is what needs to be turned over. ENOUGH already! Topple Reaganomics!

Boy, those 40 years have gone by super-fast! When absolutely nothing happens in your country, it's like time stands still. I maintain the 21st century was stillborn on Dec.12, 2000, and so therefore all of us born before 1980 can take 20 years off our age. It was like only yesterday that I started posting on this forum, and that was 23 years ago!

There is 100% chance that Trump will call the election rigged if he loses, and try to resist leaving. The justification will only be imagined, and will be only in HIS mind, because the only rigging will have been done by HIS side. The Left will NOT laugh; we are expecting this. Even Biden has said so.

Trump may try to get the police, the secret service and the military on his side, and call out his armed goons to defend his control of DC. But the Left has more than shown that they can match and far outnumber the right. That was demonstrated on his first days in office. The army has apparently declared that it will not stand by Trump if he loses the election. His Defense Dept Secretary and his Joint Chiefs Chair have said they will not turn the military on the people. Trump may not even be able to count on Chief Justice Roberts to rule in his favor if he sues over the election.

Trump will not go quietly, and there will be turmoil and probably riots; but so far at least, it looks like he will lose the election, and that he won't be able to force his way. But, we will see. I'm not calling the election for sure.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#10
I'm not a big fan of polls, but the stances Trump has taken are driving the polls.  Yes, the violent racists do not like taking away of the violent police racism, but the bulk of the people disagree.  Those that care for comfort of going without masks over the lives of others are due to see the bill for their choice come due.  The economy recovering depends on defeating the virus first, which Trump refuses to see.  I don't see the conservative position winning out.  Trump would have to change course on the issues to stop the bleeding, and he is not the one to admit he is wrong.
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#11
We will know soon enough on November 3.

Jimmy Carter was told only on Election Day 1980 that he had no chance to win, so he had time in which to write a concession speech, among other things. Preparing to leave the White House begins, I assume, on the day after Election Day for the loser or even earlier for someone who has decided not to run or is Constitutionally precluded from running for President.

The defeated President is still President until the inauguration of the next one... but obviously the Chancellor of Germany and Queen Elizabeth II are likely to think "Donald who?" should Trump try to cut any deal.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#12
(06-26-2020, 04:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm not a big fan of polls, but the stances Trump has taken are driving the polls.  Yes, the violent racists do not like taking away of the violent police racism, but the bulk of the people disagree.  Those that care for comfort of going without masks over the lives of others are due to see the bill for their choice come due.  The economy recovering depends on defeating the virus first, which Trump refuses to see.  I don't see the conservative position winning out.  Trump would have to change course on the issues to stop the bleeding, and he is not the one to admit he is wrong.
Dude, you're really loosing it but that's ok and don't worry about it or take it personal because you are not alone these days.
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#13
(06-26-2020, 04:38 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We will know soon enough on November 3.

Jimmy Carter was told only on Election Day 1980 that he had no chance to win, so he had time in which to write a concession speech, among other things. Preparing to leave the White House begins, I assume, on the day after  Election Day for the loser or even earlier for someone who has decided not to run or is Constitutionally precluded from running for President.

The defeated President is still President until the inauguration of the next one... but obviously the Chancellor of Germany and Queen Elizabeth II are likely to think "Donald who?" should Trump try to cut any deal.
Wishful thinking again???
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#14
(06-26-2020, 07:39 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(06-26-2020, 04:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm not a big fan of polls, but the stances Trump has taken are driving the polls.  Yes, the violent racists do not like taking away of the violent police racism, but the bulk of the people disagree.  Those that care for comfort of going without masks over the lives of others are due to see the bill for their choice come due.  The economy recovering depends on defeating the virus first, which Trump refuses to see.  I don't see the conservative position winning out.  Trump would have to change course on the issues to stop the bleeding, and he is not the one to admit he is wrong.
Dude, you're really loosing it but that's ok and don't worry about it or take it personal because you are not alone these days.

No. I'm going with the natural progression of a crisis. You are trying to stop the cycle, to hold on to the old values, to maintain the delusion. I'm not the one to worry about finding himself lost.
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#15
(06-26-2020, 07:39 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(06-26-2020, 04:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm not a big fan of polls, but the stances Trump has taken are driving the polls.  Yes, the violent racists do not like taking away of the violent police racism, but the bulk of the people disagree.  Those that care for comfort of going without masks over the lives of others are due to see the bill for their choice come due.  The economy recovering depends on defeating the virus first, which Trump refuses to see.  I don't see the conservative position winning out.  Trump would have to change course on the issues to stop the bleeding, and he is not the one to admit he is wrong.
Dude, you're really loosing it but that's ok and don't worry about it or take it personal because you are not alone these days.

Seems like a good estimate to me by Bob, even though he or others might be overestimating the intelligence or ability to care for others among the American people. But certainly the odds of Trump changing course are pretty low, I would say. 

When he does concede some ground to those urging it, his pattern is to switch back soon to his preference for cruelty and standing pat, and catering to the cruel ones instead, not to mention going back to his habit of insulting or firing people who criticize him or try to correct him.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#16
(06-26-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(06-25-2020, 10:47 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: The old rules no longer apply.

Donald Trump was never supposed to be elected.  There's a general understanding amongst both sides and the powers that be in the U.S. that only proper mainstream candidates are allowed to be elected.  The left was shocked to see that the pact had been broken and that Donald Trump, who utterly fails to follow the rules for politicians, had been elected.

The American media, which is almost all left wing, decided they'd had enough, and abandoned their traditional objectivity.  They'd always had a left wing slant, but there was at least the appearance of objectivity, and this is now gone.  The media openly and blatantly oppose the president, and churn out non stop anti-Donald Trump articles and stories all day every day.

Traditional liberals are mostly unaware of this, as they can't stand Trump and so are under the illusion that the media is being objective.  But conservatives are well aware of what's happened, and they too have had enough of this.  The right now feels that the game is rigged against them, that the media is no longer playing its proper role in society and so conservative views can't be heard.  Any group which feels they can't succeed playing by the rules will seek to flip the board over and make new rules.

Trump is quite good at reading the mood of the right, and knowing what he can get away with.  If he loses the election, I think there is a very strong chance that he refuses to leave office.

Using any real or imagined justification, he claims the election wasn't fair, and that he isn't leaving.  The left's initial reaction will be to laugh, awaiting the hilarious moment when the sad old man is dragged out and tossed in a car.  But the next thing they realize, there will be a million right wingers flooding into Washington D.C., heavily armed and intent on protecting the president.

What happens next depends on what kind of support Trump can muster.  If he can get the police or secret service on his side, he can suspend congress and have his political opponents arrested.  If he can get the military on his side, he seizes control of the country.  Half the states revolt and refuse to follow the federal government, and the military moves to suppress them and force them back into compliance.  We have a civil war.

If Trump can't muster up military support, he attempts to at least hold control of D.C., with democratic congressmen in jail and whichever Supreme Court justices are willing to support him rubber stamping whatever he does.

How all this ends, I can't predict.  But we're really and truly in a Crisis now, and the old rules no longer apply.  I don't think Trump will go quietly.

The media is not left wing, it is centrist. News media are still owned by corporations, not by the people. Mostly, they just report the facts from AP and Reuters, and mix in quite a bit of sensationalism to add ratings.

If the stories about Trump are negative every day, it's because everything he does IS negative every day. The media does not invent what he does; it just reports it. No one who is objective would report Trump's misdeeds and paint them as virtuous.

The only side that is rigging the game is the conservatives. They suppress voting rights and take people off the rolls that shouldn't be taken off, and they control the senate and the electoral college which were instituted in order to maintain slavery. The right wing has control of most of the courts now, and they have had control of the congress and the presidency for almost all of the last 40 years. The USA has been stagnating or regressing for 40 years since Reaganomics took over and made itself the prevailing philosophy of the state. That is what needs to be turned over. ENOUGH already! Topple Reaganomics!

Boy, those 40 years have gone by super-fast! When absolutely nothing happens in your country, it's like time stands still. I maintain the 21st century was stillborn on Dec.12, 2000, and so therefore all of us born before 1980 can take 20 years off our age. It was like only yesterday that I started posting on this forum, and that was 23 years ago!

There is 100% chance that Trump will call the election rigged if he loses, and try to resist leaving. The justification will only be imagined, and will be only in HIS mind, because the only rigging will have been done by HIS side. The Left will NOT laugh; we are expecting this. Even Biden has said so.

Trump may try to get the police, the secret service and the military on his side, and call out his armed goons to defend his control of DC. But the Left has more than shown that they can match and far outnumber the right. That was demonstrated on his first days in office. The army has apparently declared that it will not stand by Trump if he loses the election. His Defense Dept Secretary and his Joint Chiefs Chair have said they will not turn the military on the people. Trump may not even be able to count on Chief Justice Roberts to rule in his favor if he sues over the election.

Trump will not go quietly, and there will be turmoil and probably riots; but so far at least, it looks like he will lose the election, and that he won't be able to force his way. But, we will see. I'm not calling the election for sure.
I don't expect the Left to accept defeat and go away gracefully either.  I believe Trump will win and I believe the Republicans will take back the House and keep the Senate too. I'm not paying attention to polls right now. I'm not exactly pleased with the half breed Republicans playing games. I mean, sooner or later they're going to have to decide whether they're liberal Democrats or Republicans these days. Tucker Carlson issued a warning to the do nothing/ don't want to do or say anything to upset anybody or fragile Republicans (Basically, his group of belt way Republicans) to either show the Republican base that they're worth keeping or they can plan on being replaced by a more radical wing of the party. FDR despite all his faults was smart enough to keep the greed of the radical Left under control. Personally, I think the Left would have been slaughtered by the Americans at the time had FDR been a puppet like Obama.
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#17
(06-26-2020, 03:57 PM)Isoko Wrote: Pbrower,

Very true, he has bad numbers. But we have several factors at play here to contend with and this could potentially tip the balance in Trump's favour:

1) The majority of people are fed up with BLM. This is not just the deplorable crowd but the average Joe. They are fed up of statues being pulled down, the looting associated with it and in general the fanaticism being shown. 

Obviously these people won't tell the polls who they are going to vote for but come November, in the privacy of the voting booth, they can vent out their frustrations.

As is so with causes that use a personal grievance as a focus, the Black Lives Matters protests will likely peter out over the most recent disgrace. But note well: this is a protest not against legitimate law and order; it is instead about bad police work and (most likely) bad cops. 

Police have a limited role in the system of criminal justice in responding to crimes, seeking and arresting criminal suspects, investigating crimes, and patrolling areas in which laws are likely to be broken. We know what they can do -- but they do not get carte blanche to do horrible things to persons under arrest.  They are responsible for those who are under arrest, people to be taken to jail where they are to be held in accordance with decisions of courts of law. 

To be sure, attacking a police officer or threatening harm to others puts someone at risk of the definitive act of police brutality -- being killed by a police officer. We all know that, in view of the police use of bullet-proof vests, that pulling a gun on a cop is effectively suicide. We also know that if it is the choice between someone posing a threat of committing a homicide and an innocent person not a cop, then the cop must choose to kill someone committing the overt crime. Every community fears law-breakers and rightly expects the police to respond appropriately. Police error will happen, and when the courts adjudicate that a horrible incident has happened because of an error not by the police (that the officer is sent to the wrong address with a no-knock warrant) that someone other than the police officer deserves the reprimand. Police misconduct is extremely dangerous -- and, one hopes -- rare.    


Quote:2) Biden. He is the big one. I doubt he will be in office very long, he is not a strong candidate and more than likely is going to keep losing his mind on the campaign trail, which Trump will exploit.

President Biden and his physicians will know if he is so slipping that he can no longer perform the duties of the Presidency. It is essential that he have excellent staff capable of backing him up and covering for him in the event that his mental health should start to fail. The most fitting analogue will be Ronald Reagan, for whom competent Secretaries and staff were able to reduce his role to one largely ceremonial as the mental state of our 40th President deteriorated. In the event of much the same, I expect a close parallel to Reagan even to the extent of choosing a Vice-President capable of assuming all but the ceremonial roles of President that only the President can do. If the President cannot do the ceremonial roles, then he might as well resign for reasons of health. 

Not Trump. Much unlike Reagan, Trump has surrounded himself with flunkies and expected Secretaries to act as flunkies even to the extent of doing crimes on his behalf. 

OK, Reagan was a coachable fellow whom competent staffers could guide. Trump acts like a despot, and nobody gets in his way without experiencing his wrath. It is entirely possible that Donald Trump is in mental decline even more serious than that of Ronald Reagan seven and a half years into his Presidency. Competent people could cover for Reagan... and did. Nobody, no matter how competent, can do that for Trump. If Joe Biden deteriorates to the extent of Reagan, than Reagan will be the analogue for how the VP, Cabinet secretaries, and staff operate.    


Quote:3) The economy. If the economy starts to pick up after the quarantine, Trump's sins will be forgiven somewhat. If it goes into another major depression however then all bets are off.

Such strength as the economy had is the consequence of policies of Barack Obama. No boom is forever, even if it contains no speculative bubble (really a destructive phase of fake growth... need I cite the arch-conservative late economist Friedrich Hayek on that?)

Trump wanted a corrupt speculative boom, and it is our good fortune that he has been unable to get one based upon privatization of the public sector on the cheap. 
 

Quote:4) Bidens VP pick. If he picks a good candidate, his hand strengthens. If he picks what I would call a BLM candidate, then that will just infuriate people even more.

This goes without saying. He is in a strong enough position that he can seek someone who broadens his support or at the least (think of Gore for Clinton, Cheney for the younger Bush, or of course Biden for Obama) -- ideological constituency. There is no Black Lives Matter party, and Black Lives Matter is more mainstream than you seem to recognize.  


Quote:5) Never trust the polls. They predicted at the end of the voting period a strong win for the Remain camp. Ten points ahead if I recall. Shocked them all on election night.

You did not make clear what you meant by the "Remain camp." If you are discussing 2016, polling caught indications of a Trump surge and Hillary Clinton collapse. I may still be bitter about the 2016 Presidential election not so much because a Republican won but because of the way in which Trump won -- debasing the political process by making the electoral process so sordid that many good people felt soiled if they participated. Those good people were largely Democrats and Democratic-leaning people. Trump's fanatics seemed to love his antics and were as excited as ever.

Political life is no better than the people who do the politics -- and those who have meaningful choice in voting. Trump debased the political process as no earlier Presidential nominee -- not even Nixon in 1973 -- had done. He acted as if the only people who mattered were those fanatically in his support. Trump acted much like the leader of a dictatorial regime, if not a despot or dictator himself, in treating his cronies and fanatical supporters as the only people who matter once the election is over. There is more than that, and the 2018 midterm election demonstrates that. Polls so far demonstrate that. 

Donald Trump has apparently failed to broaden his support. He has engendered much new or refreshed contempt for him. Unlike Obama he did not begin with a reservoir of support that he could lose to a small extent with impunity. Note well: demographic change (about 1.5% of the electorate in the 55+ age group dying off each year with the new voters, mostly under 40, replacing those alone made a Trump re-election unlikely. Even before COVID-19 scared older voters, the part of the electorate over 55 was about 5% more R than D in its usual voting, and the part under 40  is about 20% more D than R. That's a 25% shift from R to D among incoming voters replacing those who die off, with 6% of the voters of 2020 having not voted in 2016 but voting in 2020. That is a 1.5% shift, and that alone is enough to turn bare Trump wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone into losses. Before COVID-19, Florida seemed to be getting lots of comparatively old people migrating into the state who might frustrate the trend... but if Florida didn't bite Trump, then maybe Arizona or North Carolina would.        

Quote:Overall, I accept a potential Biden win but I'm still cautiously certain that Trump could potentially pull this off.

Basically, to win re-election, President Trump needs a repeat of the political realities of 2016. Nothing has indicated that Trump has gotten into a better better position for winning re-election in 2020 than in 2016. Democrats know his tricks and have discovered how to offset them. Trump has had a stormy relationship with the mainstream news media as no other President facing re-election; in that he is in worse shape by far than Jimmy Carter (to which American news media were at lest friendly).  

Polls of course show transitory reality. Two basic polls are most important: approval polls  and match-ups. To use a hypothetical case for Ohio (and it really is hypothetical because neither a Gubernatorial nor Senatorial race is being held in Ohio in 2020) in which the incumbent is running, and you see these polls:

US Senate -- approval

Smith (R, inc) 

approval 51% (strong 49%) disapproval 44% (strong 31%)

match-up (if the election were held today, would you vote for the incumbent Smith, a Republican, or the Democrat Jones) 

Smith 53%, Jones 46%...

then we could assume that the Senator is in good  shape for winning re-election.

Now suppose that a Democratic incumbent (Williams) as Governor had bungled the response to COVID-19 and has rumors of a child out of wedlock despite theatrical displays of devout Christianity:

approval 40% (strong 28%) disapproval 49% (strong 45%)

matchup (if the election were held today, would you vote for the incumbent Williams, a Democrat, or the Republican Miller)

Miller 53%  Williams 46%

then, barring miracles, I would expect the incumbent Senator getting re-elected and the incumbent Governor being defeated.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
CNN has an video up that asks What if Trump loses and refuses to leave?

So I guess it isn't just us that are asking the question.
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#19
If he is in the White House he would be as relevant as a cockroach. Nobody would follow any of his orders. Critical parts of the White House would steadily be blocked off to him until he makes an exit. The White House staff would do nothing for him -- even cook his meals or do his laundry. News media would pay no attention to him. Whatever Internet access he has would be cut off promptly so there would be no more tweets from him. Nobody would deliver anything. There would be no deliveries to him. If Joe Biden prefers some beverage other than Diet Coke, then there will be no more Diet Coke at the White House until Trump leaves. 

Should he leave for any reason-- let us say a medical reason, then such might be accommodated. So he goes to Walter Reade... but he does not get a return to the White House. He would be the ultimate persona non grata

There would be all sorts of tricks played upon him such as that there might be a special meeting of NATO for him to attend. Maybe Marine 1 takes him to a mental institution. 

Mar a Lago will look very good for the President very fast, especially should there be a nasty cold wave around the first of February.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#20
(07-01-2020, 08:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The White House staff would do nothing for him -- even cook his meals or do his laundry.

Not even pick up his fast food? Don't we have to worry about that clause that forbids cruel and unusual punishment? Wink
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