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(05-19-2020, 09:01 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: (05-19-2020, 10:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-19-2020, 09:07 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-19-2020, 12:06 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (05-18-2020, 11:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The White House rarely changes possession by a Party after one term by that Party. The last two times that that happened were 1980 and 1932. It could be that bad for Trump -- but a 270-268 defeat of Trump will be legally adequate for us to get new leadership at the apex of American power.
1980 and 1992 you mean.
Strictly speaking, 1992 was the end of three terms of Republican Presidents in power. The elder Bush wasn't anywhere near as unlucky as Carter, let alone as counterproductive as Hoover. It took three "Presidentiads" (Ralph Waldo Emerson coined that term) for America to tire of Reaganism. Bill Clinton fully endorsed the foreign policy of the elder Bush; anything else would have been foolishness.
Had Hillary Clinton won the right votes in 2016 and barely gotten elected, the analogy this year would be to 1992. Of course, Hoover did not reek of corruption and Carter was beyond any doubt (and still is) a good man, American voters got impatient with both after one "Presidentiad".
Not clear that everyone is tired of Reaganism. Part of the country keeps voting to go back to small government, reduced taxes and military preparedness. Bush 43 was a Bush after all. But you have to vote in someone responsible once in a while.
Lets see: Small government....Reduced taxes....military preparedness. Sounds like "Reaganism" is just good ole fashioned "Americanism". Now if we could get that with side of isolationism and a sprinkle of autarky mixed in that would be prefect.
All that said I'm going to be mining liberal salt come November 3rd I'm sure.
Reagan is the start of an era in American politics and Trump is its ignoble end. I don't know what you mean by "Americanism". Which part of America? One of my basic sources of American history, Albion's Seed (David Hackett- Fischer) recognizes that four basic waves of settlement from the British Isles (England, Wales, southern Scotland, and northern Ireland, basically) themselves established regional areas in which certain cultures became entrenched before the American Revolution and tended to spread west. I'm not going to go into the argument, but Boston is very different from Philadelphia, and Philadelphia was long very different from central Virginia, and all three of those were very different from the Backwoods. People tended to move west, and not south or north to find better lives for themselves. If you wonder about the Dutch and related settlers of New Amsterdam and environs, then as it turns out that the people of southeastern England were more similar in many ways to the Dutch than to people of southwest England, the Midlands, or the border country between England and Scotland. (Highland Scots generally went to Canada, and the large wave of Irish Catholics came decidedly later; in southern New England they largely took over the Puritan world as descendants of the early British settlers moved west to upstate New York, and all in all, north of a line close to what is now Interstate 80). Swiss Mennonites (the Pennsylvania Dutch) were compatible with the Quakers on religious grounds, and they also tended to move almost due west -- but getting quickly through the alien world of Appalachia.
So which culture is most validly American?
Descendants of early American slaves may not be a monolith -- but they carry practically no culture from Africa. They mostly got a pre-packaged culture that masters imposed upon them -- that of the peasant class of southwestern England. I would suppose that that makes them very American. Don;t forget the people 'here' before white people settled America. Let us also not forget the large Hispanic populations that had settled in the American Southwest before 1855... and this is the population that led the later Mexican and other Latin-American immigrants in that area.
And then there are mixtures, often incongruous to bigots.
So which culture is more definitively American among those four cultures?
OK, if you are aware of my musical tastes, then an Eisenach*-Prague-Vienna axis is a good approximation. So am I un-American? I have good cause to not say that anyone not an obvious alien is any less American than I am. I can't tell you how many ways there are to be an American.
.................
Moving along...
Stephen Skowronek has a pattern of cycles in American politics that begin with the introduction of a daring agenda that changes much at the start and eventually goes stale. What was daring and effective with Reagan (if unsettling for people connected to the older agenda then pushed aside) has been spent.
Even soon after being elected, Trump was strongly ideological and extremely offensive. But that is the least. Trump is unimaginative, rigid, and intellectually overmatched. Carter was the last previous "disjunctive" President who played by the book and had the book playing him. Trump reads little, and he shows why there is "a book".
Quote:It's difficult to think of two modern political figures more different than Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter. Carter came into the White House with quiet style, downplaying the trapping of the office. His scandalous revelation was that he had "lusted in his heart," as he admitted in an interview with Playboy magazine. Revelations of the thrice-married Trump were, well, somewhat different.
But Carter remains an illuminating parallel within an important theory of the presidency: political time. Political science has been wrong about a lot this cycle, but one theory offers something about what's in store. This is the theory of political time, an idea by Yale political scientist Stephen Skowronek (who, full disclosure, is one of my advisers). Skowronek posited in a 1993 book that presidents govern in cycles of political time: new political eras pioneered by presidents like Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and, most recently, Ronald Reagan.
One of the core arguments is that presidencies are just defined not by temperament or even ideology. The president's relationship to the dominant party and the health of that party's ideology and coalition influence the success and legacy of the administration.
This isn't a theory about polls, and it doesn't predict elections exactly. But it tells us quite a bit about what a Trump presidency means and what we might expect.
Trump, who was elected as a Republican, will make what the theory describes as "disjunctive" politics: the last gasp of the incumbent era. To take a step back for a moment, this casts Barack Obama — and Bill Clinton before him — as an opposition president, prone to ideological shape-shifting and serious legitimacy challenges (like impeachment), and hard-pressed to hand off the presidency to a partisan successor.
Shifting back to Trump, disjunctive presidents tend to be outsiders and technocrats. They run on promises to get things done. They are divorced from the roots of the old ideology, by time and by belief, just as Carter was from FDR and, thinking back to the 1850s, like Franklin Pierce was from Andrew Jackson. These presidents didn't have concrete political connections to the old administrations, and despite shared party labels, they weren't true believers in the ideology.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction...an-era-end
Trump is a political failure, and not because I dislike his agenda.
* this fellow:
![[Image: jsbach.jpg]](http://www.jsbach.net/images/jsbach.jpg)
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05-21-2020, 02:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2020, 09:22 AM by Bob Butler 54.)
Generally, people predict at the T4T sites what they want to happen. Especially among political partisans, it is less a prediction than wishful thinking. Folks find ways of looking at things which justify what they want to justify. Some people can even justify killing grandma for cash and think such thoughts are American.
I think I'm a bit different when I predict the see saw. The White House has kept switching hands during the unraveling and early crisis configuration. The middle seems to keep quiet, but they have kept the party in power from getting comfortable. They have kept us see sawing.
We'll see if it shifts in the high, how the new normal is defined and how hard the lessons learned in the crisis get enforced. I sort of anticipate the usual rejection of the conservative position with a healthy never again element. I'm still seeing most of America valuing lives over dollars. If that dominates the crisis, it will open the door for the rest of the Democratic agenda that has been debated but gone nowhere (as usual) in the unravelling. The unraveling just isn't a decisive time.
Traditionally, the old conservative perspective gets buried for a time in the high, but some variant might come back with movements like Jim Crow.
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(05-20-2020, 10:21 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: (05-19-2020, 10:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-19-2020, 09:01 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Lets see: Small government....Reduced taxes....military preparedness. Sounds like "Reaganism" is just good ole fashioned "Americanism". Now if we could get that with side of isolationism and a sprinkle of autarky mixed in that would be prefect.
All that said I'm going to be mining liberal salt come November 3rd I'm sure.
Actually, isolationism used to mean demilitarizing after every conflict. A minimum skeleton military. This was part of why crisis wars took typically four years or so. We had to rebuild our military virtually from scratch, and relearn the business of war. There was a scramble to rearm as conflicts like the Civil War and World War II came up. Peacetime preparedness and the world's policeman role really started after World War II.
Of course abandoning preparedness now would be abandoning the field to the autocracies. And dictators always were un American until recently. Not surprising that you would endorse that, though. You always have supported the elites over the people.
Someone will be mining salt, certainly. I think with the polls favoring those supporting a more scientific response to the virus, it will become clear pretty early who that will be.
Remember the polls said Hillary would be President too.
I personally don't care what this or that poll says outside of it being aggregated which I typically have to do myself anyway, since the legacy media can't be trusted to do it.
I find it amusing that the boomers here seem to be clueless as to what I mean by mining salt.
President Trump needs miracles to win re-election. A few things are different.
First, he has a record as President. That could be used against him. Polls of approval look very bad for him.
Sure, you can always deliver the bromide "the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day". The problem is that the decisions that most people have on whether to vote for or against someone are made earlier upon a summation of deeds and statements.
Second, in a close election, how a state votes may be a matter of chance according to most models. So let us suppose that the seven closest states in November are
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
North Carolina (15)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
and each has a 50% chance of going either way. Trump needs four; Biden needs three.
Biden has 99 chances of winning and Trump has 64. Chances for a Biden win are about 60.7%; chances for a Trump win are 39.3%.
Guess what? Everybody has a chance to be right and to be wrong.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(05-19-2020, 10:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Not clear that everyone is tired of Reaganism. Part of the country keeps voting to go back to small government, reduced taxes and military preparedness. Bush 43 was a Bush after all. But you have to vote in someone responsible once in a while.
When the Wal Street Journal declares that "the era of big government is back", it's hard to ignore that as a partisan swipe. Yes, there are many steadfast individualists who argue for self reliance and the end to government control, but they are also right there to get theirs in bad times. These are about as bad as I care to see.
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(05-19-2020, 09:01 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Lets see: Small government....Reduced taxes....military preparedness. Sounds like "Reaganism" is just good ole fashioned "Americanism". Now if we could get that with side of isolationism and a sprinkle of autarky mixed in that would be prefect.
All that said I'm going to be mining liberal salt come November 3rd I'm sure.
You are part of a tribe, and believe as your tribe believes. OK, I can see that … up to a point. One problem, though. What you describe has been a central fixture of the American experience since the beginning, and has quite likely run its course. You're young enough to possibly see that reverse yet again, but Reaganism, and its European variants, is done for now. We live in a cyclic world, you know. 
Light reading: Ted Anthony of the Associated Press gave this a thorough once-over. It's not definitive, but it is informative.
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(05-20-2020, 10:21 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I find it amusing that the boomers here seem to be clueless as to what I mean by mining salt.
No, they're yanking your chain. I guess you missed it.
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(05-20-2020, 10:21 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I find it amusing that the boomers here seem to be clueless as to what I mean by mining salt.
Ah, yes -- the salt mines. Until modern times, most miners were slaves. Mining then as now was unpleasant, dangerous, often life-shortening work.
Consider that South Africa largely used "Bantu" workers to mine diamonds -- and that thug insurgencies in parts of Africa use captives to mine "b;lood diamonds". Consider that Commie regimes often used political prisoners to mine uranium. Coal miners in Japanese-occupied Manchuria were slaves for all practical purposes.
Although salt isn't a particularly dangerous substance unless in solution... OK... a salt mine was a terrible place if one was thirsty, and salt as dust was everywhere. Salt mines used to be one place for consigning political and religious offenders. The royal salt mines -- profits for the King, death for the workers.
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CNN reports that the World Health Organization and Europe are not buying into Tumps propaganda war with China. There is a general feeling that the US has stepped away from Europe's concerns in the last few administrations, and may have trouble reconnecting in the future.
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As usual, Trump is more adept at finding scapegoats than at finding solutions. It seems to be getting worse. I doubt that the pattern will ever end. It will no longer matter once the President is no longer President.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
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(05-28-2020, 01:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
Except that large gatherings of any kind are as unsafe as if there were a secret police agency watching and recording everything, and people seem to disappear without a trace... except that the danger is of a destructive, insidious, and highly-communicable virus... people would be protesting this. I would, even if we had a Stasi, KGB, or Mississippi Sovereignty Commission snooping around.
We need to take this President down in November, and before that we need to gut his authority in every way possible. I think of a slogan that fits this time well:
ABORT FASCISM NOW!
Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-28-2020, 01:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
Except that large gatherings of any kind are as unsafe as if there were a secret police agency watching and recording everything, and people seem to disappear without a trace... except that the danger is of a destructive, insidious, and highly-communicable virus... people would be protesting this. I would, even if we had a Stasi, KGB, or Mississippi Sovereignty Commission snooping around.
We need to take this President down in November, and before that we need to gut his authority in every way possible. I think of a slogan that fits this time well:
ABORT FASCISM NOW!
Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
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(05-29-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
I'd tend to agree that the current conservative trend towards ignoring a problem, ignoring the science, going with living in a fantasy reality instead, is quite different from fascism, from the problems of the last crisis, and the problems with the Asian flavor of socialism as well.
But that does not mean the conservative version of reality doesn't deserve being dumped on. You don't need a label from the last crisis for it to be unacceptable.
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(05-29-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-28-2020, 01:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
Except that large gatherings of any kind are as unsafe as if there were a secret police agency watching and recording everything, and people seem to disappear without a trace... except that the danger is of a destructive, insidious, and highly-communicable virus... people would be protesting this. I would, even if we had a Stasi, KGB, or Mississippi Sovereignty Commission snooping around.
We need to take this President down in November, and before that we need to gut his authority in every way possible. I think of a slogan that fits this time well:
ABORT FASCISM NOW!
Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
KKK and Nazi fascists keep surfacing in America. Most of them are tiny cults with their own Fuehrers and Imperial Wizards...
I really hate describing the president as a fascist, but he fits too many fascist characteristics.
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(05-29-2020, 12:18 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-29-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
I'd tend to agree that the current conservative trend towards ignoring a problem, ignoring the science, going with living in a fantasy reality instead, is quite different from fascism, from the problems of the last crisis, and the problems with the Asian flavor of socialism as well.
But that does not mean the conservative version of reality doesn't deserve being dumped on. You don't need a label from the last crisis for it to be unacceptable.
Let me take a pew in your Church of Reality As It Is ™. For some reason, the Democrats lack the courage to call things by their proper name, and just mumble and shuffle. To be totally honest, it's why I'm not a Democrat myself.
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05-29-2020, 01:09 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-29-2020, 01:09 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-29-2020, 05:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-29-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-28-2020, 01:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
Except that large gatherings of any kind are as unsafe as if there were a secret police agency watching and recording everything, and people seem to disappear without a trace... except that the danger is of a destructive, insidious, and highly-communicable virus... people would be protesting this. I would, even if we had a Stasi, KGB, or Mississippi Sovereignty Commission snooping around.
We need to take this President down in November, and before that we need to gut his authority in every way possible. I think of a slogan that fits this time well:
ABORT FASCISM NOW!
Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
KKK and Nazi fascists keep surfacing in America. Most of them are tiny cults with their own Fuehrers and Imperial Wizards...
I really hate describing the president as a fascist, but he fits too many fascist characteristics.
Yes indeed, and descriptions of the attitudes and characteristics of Mussolini and Hitler that I read about are quite comparable and similar to those of Trump as well as Bolsonaro and the other Trump clones. The comparison is quite apt. Fantasy world was indeed a part of the fascist ideology and modus operandi, although today's conservative fantasy world has its own unique aspects.
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I keep reinforcing that the arrow of progress is real. Various conservative have contested it, saying the victors write the history books, that whoever wins gets labeled progressive.
Really?
Kings are better than democracy?
Blacks in inherently inferior and ought to be slaves? Civilization has always depended on slavery, and always will?
The economy should be unregulated? The boom and depression cycles should be allowed to run unfettered?
Dictators and autocracy are wonderful? Conquest is a fine way to acquire a race power, territory and resources?
Blacks should not be allowed to eat or sleep in businesses established for that purpose?
Science is ignorable? It is better to live in a dream?
People should be murdered if their skin color is different?
Conservatives always came up with excuses why privilege and inequality should continue. They continue to do so, even here. This often involves convoluted logic. It isn’t generally stupidity. It is culture, and history, and tribal thinking. It is still as blatantly wrong today as it has always been.
Every two to four generations, an oppressed minority will demand that the concept of people being equal under law become more true. This seems to be one of those times. There are all sorts of convoluted attempts to maintain this oppression by various people claiming down is up and the sky is green. This is just like in the past. This is just as wrong as in the past.
And just like in the past, it is futile. The time has come. Time for the culture to change.
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(05-29-2020, 11:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I keep reinforcing that the arrow of progress is real. Various conservative have contested it, saying the victors write the history books, that whoever wins gets labeled progressive.
Really?
Kings are better than democracy?
Blacks in inherently inferior and ought to be slaves? Civilization has always depended on slavery, and always will?
The economy should be unregulated? The boom and depression cycles should be allowed to run unfettered?
Dictators and autocracy are wonderful? Conquest is a fine way to acquire a race power, territory and resources?
Blacks should not be allowed to eat or sleep in businesses established for that purpose?
Science is ignorable? It is better to live in a dream?
People should be murdered if their skin color is different?
Conservatives always came up with excuses why privilege and inequality should continue. They continue to do so, even here. This often involves convoluted logic. It isn’t generally stupidity. It is culture, and history, and tribal thinking. It is still as blatantly wrong today as it has always been.
Every two to four generations, an oppressed minority will demand that the concept of people being equal under law become more true. This seems to be one of those times. There are all sorts of convoluted attempts to maintain this oppression by various people claiming down is up and the sky is green. This is just like in the past. This is just as wrong as in the past.
And just like in the past, it is futile. The time has come. Time for the culture to change.
Do you and today's left truly represent the arrow of progress these days? You seem to think so. Yes, the arrow of progress is real. I think it's about time for blue culture to change its ways but I suspect blue culture will continue fucking up like it's been fucking up until it can no longer get away with fucking up or no longer afford to fuck up.
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(05-29-2020, 05:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-29-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-28-2020, 11:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-28-2020, 01:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: From CNN, Trump is set to announce an executive order against social media companies
Sounds like some social media companies are adding fact checks to Trump's lies, so this is an attempt at using the government to establish political censorship. He ought to have lots of legal trouble with this one.
Except that large gatherings of any kind are as unsafe as if there were a secret police agency watching and recording everything, and people seem to disappear without a trace... except that the danger is of a destructive, insidious, and highly-communicable virus... people would be protesting this. I would, even if we had a Stasi, KGB, or Mississippi Sovereignty Commission snooping around.
We need to take this President down in November, and before that we need to gut his authority in every way possible. I think of a slogan that fits this time well:
ABORT FASCISM NOW!
Yes, Donald Trump really is a fascist pig. He made the mistake of trying to purge the GOP before shutting down the Democrats, which is the one thing that he got completely wrong in his attempt to establish a dictatorship.
We already aborted fascism a long time ago. I hope you aren't dumb enough to go for it thinking it's socialism instead. I wouldn't put it passed you at this point.
KKK and Nazi fascists keep surfacing in America. Most of them are tiny cults with their own Fuehrers and Imperial Wizards...
I really hate describing the president as a fascist, but he fits too many fascist characteristics.
Are they out burning down and looting portions of American cities and destroying police precincts these days? I suggest that you pull your head out of your ass and wake up.
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05-30-2020, 04:28 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-30-2020, 04:33 AM by Eric the Green.)
(05-30-2020, 02:22 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Are they out burning down and looting portions of American cities and destroying police precincts these days? I suggest that you pull your head out of your ass and wake up.
We know what's going on. They are not doing the right thing, but that doesn't mean they are fascists. Fascism is more than riots. But this police murder was especially egregious and I understand the anger, and you don't.
Only the left brings progress. That's the way it has always been, especially in fourth turnings. You can't name a single case in a 2T or a 4T when conservatives have brought progress. They only bring complacency and conformity in 3Ts and 1Ts. I suppose they have their place in the cycle. Real conservatives in those periods have at least overseen fairly stable periods. But so-called "conservatives" today are as bad as the white southerners of the 1850s and 60s were. Deplorable. You have yet to rethink your loyalty to them. Their president today is a poor representative of conservative. He is a greedy mad con man.
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