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(08-13-2020, 03:09 PM)jleagans Wrote: Not playing catch up on this post, but what's wrong with 2001 being the start of the 4th turning? This only works if Biden wins and 2020 officially ends the Turning.
This would make years per turning:
1st - 1946-1964 (roughly) -19 years
2nd-1965-1983 (roughly)- 19 years
3rd-1984-2001-18 years
4th-2002-2020-19 years
I'm sorry but thats creepily balanced and overlays exactly to the generations (as it should).
I’m usually on the fast short side on this, but I think ending it in 2020 is a bit quick. I think the start of the crisis heart falls about there, but you do not allow time to actually resolve the crisis.
Traditionally, the crisis heart was a crisis war. It took 4 to 5 years to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, find competent generals, and push troops into the other guy’s capitol. But that was in the Industrial Age.
This time, thus far we have identified COVID and Black Lives Matter as centering the two key early crisis issues. It takes a year or two to develop a vaccine. The legislation that would make violent racial policing decisively illegal could happen in the same time. You could see the problems of the crisis take as little as a year or two to solve.
You could see another trigger. After we solve the first two issues, another might rear its ugly head. I don’t see what is coming, but then I didn’t see COVID either. Recovering from the virus, I am seeing a general readiness to move away from strife and head into a high mentality. I could be wrong. A lot of people are pushing for 2030 as the end of the crisis. I don’t see it though.
Will the remnants of the Republican base get enamored of another candidate and make a serious push in 2024?
Then there is the never again period, which is generally put at the tail end of the crisis. What will people want to do so the crisis never happens again? Strengthen the World Health Organization? A better set of anti pandemic treaties? If Trump does make the transition of power ugly, will there be changes to the Constitution to prevent it from happening again? If Trump pardons Pence, resigns, then Pence pardons Trump, could you see them making it hard for that to happen again? If slowing the mail causes confusion, could you see constitutional protections put in place? That makes me suggest another few years?
The crisis might end well before the commonly quoted 2030 date, but I think some time for resolving things and saying never again is needed.
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08-13-2020, 07:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2020, 07:09 PM by RadianMay.)
The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
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(08-13-2020, 04:58 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: ... You could see another trigger. After we solve the first two issues, another might rear its ugly head. I don’t see what is coming, but then I didn’t see COVID either. Recovering from the virus, I am seeing a general readiness to move away from strife and head into a high mentality. I could be wrong. A lot of people are pushing for 2030 as the end of the crisis. I don’t see it though.
... The crisis might end well before the commonly quoted 2030 date, but I think some time for resolving things and saying never again is needed.
We haven't had a chance to see how broken the economy really is, but it's certainly very bad. As it stands today, we're seeing the rich continue to do well, while the poor, near poor and probably large parts of the middle class are depleted and may be so downwardly mobile that the GD becomes the model for how they survive. Oh yeah, don't expect a major war to get things going. So yes -- we have at least one more challenge to meet.
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(08-13-2020, 07:06 PM)RadianMay Wrote: The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
Never discount an October Surprise when this POTUS is the one pushing the buttons. Nothing may happen, but its far from certain it will go that way.
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(08-13-2020, 07:06 PM)RadianMay Wrote: The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
Trump compels us to return to what best resembles tried-and-true. We shall see if we get that... and if. should we get that, it pans out.
Quote:I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
Black Lives Matter is not the issue; cops who get trigger-happy around blacks has been a festering issue. Black Lives Matter is a possible solution. We are also discovering that real community in America may dictate that Confederate symbolism goes down this time because it hurts black people and does little for whites. Trump has given unwitting support for racist cliques who have offended most of us.
Get this straight: Xi is not another Hitler. Hitler tried to get people of German origin in other countries to become collaborators in the spread of Nazi influence and power. Do you see Xi doing much the same with the far-larger and more widespread Chinese diaspora? I have far more concern about the Korean peninsula that has opposing sides nearly diametrically opposite between insanity and realism. South Korea does a far better job of kissing up to the People's Republic of China than does North Korea. War is most likely when an amoral leader sees advantages that he can take advantage in an indefensible opponent (just think of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait).
Assuming that Trump is running out of time due to an impending defeat, he is in no position to provoke conflict with the People's Republic of China. Xi knows how to play the waiting game about as well as Angela Merkel.
Quote:If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
The most likely war involving China would be the consequence of one of China's near-neighbors doing bad things to the Chinese minority in that country.
My long-term prediction has been that the People's Republic of China would try to reunify Taiwan into China with another "one nation/two systems" approach. There are problems to this. First of all, the People's Republic is nominally a multi-party system (although minor parties are effectively marginalized). One of those is a faction of the Guomindang Party that split from Chiang Kai Shek in the 1930's and joined the Communist-dominated coalition. The Guomindang in Taiwan is no longer the authoritarian party tht brought about its own demise in China through corruption and incompetence. Obviously a reunification of China is far easier if China as a whole is democratic, which the People's Republic definitely is not. Second, Xi has come close to making a mockery of the "one country, two systems" approach in Hong Kong, which should make anyone in Taiwan skittish.
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By the way -- we are now late into the Crisis Era.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(08-15-2020, 02:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: By the way -- we are now late into the Crisis Era.
Well, about 9 years to go out of 21. I guess that's late, if you want to define it that way.
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08-15-2020, 04:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2020, 04:36 AM by Eric the Green.)
(08-13-2020, 07:06 PM)RadianMay Wrote: The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
I think that Taiwan question could be an unexploded time bomb. It depends on the Chinese, how far their ambitions will go. I think the USA would defend Taiwan, but perhaps not. If China invades around 2024-25, look for the USA to be involved. If before then, maybe not.
Historically China is not very aggressive with its neighbors, but it has been expansive toward what it feels is its territory. I don't think the Chinese authorities want a war with its best customer though.
The Middle East, Syria, the Kurds, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Arabia, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, the Baltic, Afghanistan.... these remain the worst triggers for further US involvement likely in 2024-26.
This crisis is primarily an internal one, having to do with the decay and division of our country. How violent it may become we might find out in January 2021, or more likely in circa 2025. The "existential" crisis fully arrives then. But the division must be resolved with victory by the progressive side, and not just further fragmentation, if our nation is to survive as we have known it, rather than become something else; something poorer and more authoritarian. Joe Biden has made this dilemna, this choice, quite clear in his campaign rhetoric, and I think he is exactly right.
Unless the public becomes more insistent on more radical change, a center-left progress and rectification of some of the ills brought about over the last 40 years is all we can expect from the next 4, if Biden wins. If he doesn't, then the internal battle will heat up, resistance will grow, street battles will intensify, and it will be up to judges to protect our midterm election. If a fair election can be protected, a big question, then the midterms will be a tsunami against the Trump Party. Another impeachment is likely and a Pence succession.
Our fair judiciary will depend on the election of a Democratic Senate this November, in spite of who wins the presidency. If necessary it will have to be willing to be ruthless in blocking all of Trump's appointments for the entire term. That is a big IF.
If Biden does win, even with a Democratic Senate, we are far from out of the woods in this 4T. It will still have a term to run. If the Democrats stay on through the following term in 2025-2029, they will continue to face unmet challenges that require drastic action, and further demands for change, and also further resistance, possibly very violent, from the right. This may include secession by red states. But if Vice President Harris is nominated in 2024, she will lose, and the Republicans will be in a position to squelch the new progress and keep the USA on course toward banana republic status, and our climate toward tropical torridity. Disasters and pandemics will prevail, including covid. Secession by blue states is highly likely, and this is where violence could ramp up if the Trumpists are not willing to let us go and use their control of the red state to enforce their will. Any other kinds of violent or non-violent revolt from the left will fail and be crushed without mercy. A rebellion by the left against the post-Biden/Harris Republican regime after 2024 will require formation of alternative blue states with armies, in a likely full-scale civil war. With Harris' appointment by Biden, I see this outcome as much more likely now. I see the Harris pick as an unmitigated disaster.
Unless the Democrats are willing to nominate a white guy alternative to Harris, in spite of the power of blacks and women in the party who are insistent on having their way, then I am not optimistic about the survival of the USA as we have known it. That is because it so happens that a few white guys (e.g. McAuliffe, Landrieu) seem to be the only ones available in 2024 to win against the favored Republicans. Susan Rice could do it, but I don't see her resigning the secretary of state position she is likely to receive in order to run in 2023-24. But, maybe she will see the Harris weakness and run against her. It seems unlikely, and I see no other black or white women with the chops and youth to win.
Decisions we have made, and will make, and those which Biden will make and already has made, will have direct and predictable consequences. And the cosmic and generational cycles, charts and aspects will have their say too, and cannot be ignored.
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(08-15-2020, 03:47 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (08-15-2020, 02:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: By the way -- we are now late into the Crisis Era.
Well, about 9 years to go out of 21. I guess that's late, if you want to define it that way.
My only argument with a 20-21 year long 4T is why? 2Ts and 4Ts run hot; 1Ts and 3Ts run cool. One solid data point: we've just had a long 3T. Can we possibly maintain crisis level intensity for that long? I doubt it -- especially in this county.
Another 6 years of crisis is my best guess, with a messy transition to the next 1T.
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(08-15-2020, 07:29 AM)David Horn Wrote: (08-15-2020, 03:47 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (08-15-2020, 02:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: By the way -- we are now late into the Crisis Era.
Well, about 9 years to go out of 21. I guess that's late, if you want to define it that way.
My only argument with a 20-21 year long 4T is why? 2Ts and 4Ts run hot; 1Ts and 3Ts run cool. One solid data point: we've just had a long 3T. Can we possibly maintain crisis level intensity for that long? I doubt it -- especially in this county.
Another 6 years of crisis is my best guess, with a messy transition to the next 1T.
Possibly, you could define the 3T mood as starting to take over at the end of the awakening heart and lasting until the crisis trigger and regeneracy. In this case, it started shortly after the 68 Democratic Convention and lasted until COVID or an effective response to COVID. That is a lot longer than 21 years.
The generation configurations might last 21 years, or a little longer given increased lifespan. The intense years of the awakening and crisis are much shorter. A crisis war used to take about 5 years, and you add a bit for the never again period. A religious revival in the old Industrial Age used to take a year or two. The Beatles lasted somewhat longer.
This leaves a lot of unraveling.
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(08-15-2020, 04:14 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: And the cosmic and generational cycles, charts and aspects will have their say too, and cannot be ignored.
Why not? I am able to ignore them just fine.
Granted, they are the center of your world view, but in this case you are allowing an unpredictable method of obtaining objective truth badly warp your view of politics.
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We have hit bottom with Donald Trump. He exemplifies a nation in which most people are obliged to be gamblers -- and most gamblers lose. Casinos and the lottery are the least of it; people are obliged to make huge risks of personal debt just to have the chance to get a job that isn't best described as standing behind a counter at a convenience or dollar store or doing farm labor. I see people in their fifties and sixties doing fast-food work. The old wisdom was that such work was for people of great energy who have not yet become cynical about the capitalist system.
But that is just economics. We may not have steadily gone down that route; we have had abortive reversals, but when the people who have the power operate on the 'moral' principle of Aleister Crowley, "Do what thou wilt", which is far easier to do if one is a master than a slave, to put it tamely and the "Golden Rule" as expressed by the late oil billionaire H L Hunt, "He who owns the gold makes the rules", people not rich get stepped on. The most reliable way in which to have a political career is to make clear that one believes what exploitative elites of all kinds, from feudal lords to the Soviet nomenklatura, have believed: that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the service of the ruling elite.
We will be compelled to make institutional changes and to shake the perversity out of our culture. It should be obvious enough to anyone above a dull-normal level of intellect that the most intense expressions of the id as the drug high, a drunken buzz, a sugar high, a drag on a cancerette, a reckless orgasm, the thrill of the prospect of getting rich off a bet, listening to some Top 40 hit, or the good feeling from an impulse purchase is ephemeral at best and harmful in overall result. Such acts are costly, often harmful at the least to one's economic position, and contrary to improvement of a person. They may all bring health problems from tooth decay to emphysema to cirrhosis, and may provoke one to do illegal deeds to get the high. Contrast the reality that sophisticated people know, that a delight that takes time to build, that one can share with others, that requires no moral compromises, but requires some knowledge to recognize as a worthy use of time and resources is a good idea. I need not own an original Degas or Vermeer to appreciate it so long as I can go to the art museum. Such builds a person.
We Americans need to relearn how to live, and not simply serve as conduits for money from one plutocrat to another..
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08-16-2020, 03:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-16-2020, 03:38 PM by Mikebert.)
(08-07-2020, 02:17 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I know, I know...you and Eric are talking about an internal war (civil, guerilla or otherwise), not an external conflict. True, a guerilla war is asymmetric by nature, and proved quite successful against conventional forces in the last century (the Cuban Revolution, for instance). But I would rule out even a guerilla war in the U.S. lasting for very long...
No, more likely than guerilla warfare is the no-less-palatable prospect of more Lone Wolf attacks which, given our saturated gun culture, is a hairy thought too. In short, anarchic violence.
Finally, America is still very much a capitalist nation, and anything or anyone that seriously threatens that political economy with widespread violence will quickly be squashed—by either a Biden or Trump administration. Barring outright societal collapse, of course.
As I have described I am now using a secular cycle model, which provides a body of theory and many more examples of what happens from times like now. When I speak of "resolution" of the crisis I am referring to ending it before it comes to a natural end. But if no action is taken, then a natural end is what we will get. Here is a list of previous natural ends.
1. Civil war As described above it is hard to see how the seemingly likley kind of civil war would be prosecuted at a scale that is cycle ending. So that won't happen.
2. State collapse. This requires state bankruptcy that can only happen if the country does not possess debt denominated in its own currency. This is not the case so this option is out.
3. Revolution. As Teacher-in-Exile suggests, any revolutionary threat will be squashed. Since 1800 the Anglo-nations have been able to crush revolutionary activity before it got out of hand in Britain around 1800, 1820 and 1848, and in America in 1919. Since then the state's ability in this area has only grown. So this option is out.
4. External conquest or at least invasion. Robert Butler has dealt with this one, so this is out.
6. Natural disaster such as a pandemic. We actually have a pandemic. With modern science it is unlikely that a third of use could die as a result of such an event as was the case with the Black Death, so this option is out.
7. A new cultural development arises that solves the issue for us. The rise of capitalism/industrial revolution did this for Britain in the 17th century. This is a real possibility. The current discussion about UBI may provide a way to create a quiescent "commoner class" to which an increasing number of Americans are consigned in post-industrial restoration of the late medieval world. The film Ready Player One depicted one vision of what such a world might look like to an ordinary person.
Unless we get a new development like this, the crisis era will not end. It will continue on, decade after decade for as long as it takes to arrive at a resolution or one of the above things currently ruled out become options and solve the crisis externally. Crises can las a long time. The crisis that ended the Roman Republic took a century (c130 to 27 BCE). The Plantagenet cycle crisis (c 1350-1485) spanned more than that. Even the Tudor-Stuart crisis era (c1640-c1700) lasted sixty years. Modern crises have been shorter. the last crisis era in America (1907-41) took 34 years, while the Russian crisis from 1905-22 was just 17 years long. Our crisis formally began in 2006, so it is pretty young at 14 years.
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(08-16-2020, 03:03 PM)Mikebert Wrote: 4. External conquest or at least invasion. Robert Butler has dealt with this one, so this is out.
Should I go looking for a picture of a wrecked invasion ship with me and my trusty mortar in the foreground? 
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(08-16-2020, 03:03 PM)Mikebert Wrote: 7. A new cultural development arises that solves the issue for us. The rise of capitalism/industrial revolution did this for Britain in the 17th century. This is a real possibility. The current discussion about UBI may provide a way to create a quiescent "commoner class" to which an increasing number of Americans are consigned in post-industrial restoration of the late medieval world. The film Ready Player One depicted one vision of what such a world might look like to an ordinary person.
... Modern crises have been shorter. the last crisis era in America (1907-41) took 34 years, while the Russian crisis from 1905-22 was just 17 years long. Our crisis formally began in 2006, so it is pretty young at 14 years.
If the resolution is to come through politics, item 7 seems unavoidable. How quickly it takes hold is arguable, but the necessary degree of underlying unrest is already there. It's just not organized enough to create change.
We here in the US have elected to try the middle lane yet again, or continue on with the proto-authoritarian in office now. Neither of those options get us real change, so either the new POTUS decides, like Roosevelt, that the middle lane is unworkable, or this drags on. If it's Trump, it will be a dystopian mess. If it's undeterred Biden it will be more Obama era puttering around the edges and accomplishing nothing of value.
But eventually, the youth will have had enough. It may take a decade or two (what could be the 2T in the S&H cycle), but the longer it takes to get there, the less likely it's peaceful.
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I really believe the Republicans situation is MUCH more tenuous than y'all are thinking. Suppression over time has left them VERY weak to legislative takeovers, once suppression is undone by one Democratic legislature a tied state could easily become a solid Democrat +5 (North Carolina is my bet on being first). The Republican party has no agenda, no identity, and no real support among the youngest generations. The fact that Democrats won the House with THESE maps is insane, but if they can win the Senate and drop the filibuster immediately the whole system can be built to block Republicans for a decade.
My big prediction is that we'll see American politics redefine around the goalposts of Bernie and Hillary. That's where the younger generations are and the Republican brand is generationally toxic in a way that may not be survivable.
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08-18-2020, 10:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2020, 10:23 AM by David Horn.)
(08-17-2020, 06:33 PM)jleagans Wrote: I really believe the Republicans situation is MUCH more tenuous than y'all are thinking. Suppression over time has left them VERY weak to legislative takeovers, once suppression is undone by one Democratic legislature a tied state could easily become a solid Democrat +5 (North Carolina is my bet on being first). The Republican party has no agenda, no identity, and no real support among the youngest generations. The fact that Democrats won the House with THESE maps is insane, but if they can win the Senate and drop the filibuster immediately the whole system can be built to block Republicans for a decade.
My big prediction is that we'll see American politics redefine around the goalposts of Bernie and Hillary. That's where the younger generations are and the Republican brand is generationally toxic in a way that may not be survivable.
Don't forget: 18% of the US population elects 50% of the US Senators -- and Republicans dominate in most of those states. This will be a long struggle to balance 40 years of rightward drift, and create enough leftward movement to buffer the next move right. Been there. Got the scars.
I agree that NC is ripe for a transformation , though it may be less permanent than you believe. I'm less certain about "the younger generations". Keep in mind that the Silents were and still are very conservative. That's typical of recessive generations in general.
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It seems to be the case that the homeland generation/gen Z is more conservative than the millennial generation that came before it. Depending on your definition of when gen Z starts, they will start influencing this or the next presidential election.
If and when republican momentum may build up again, I really do hope the Republican Party really gets their act together rather than trying to put an imbecile in office.
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(08-15-2020, 07:29 AM)David Horn Wrote: (08-15-2020, 03:47 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (08-15-2020, 02:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: By the way -- we are now late into the Crisis Era.
Well, about 9 years to go out of 21. I guess that's late, if you want to define it that way.
My only argument with a 20-21 year long 4T is why? 2Ts and 4Ts run hot; 1Ts and 3Ts run cool. One solid data point: we've just had a long 3T. Can we possibly maintain crisis level intensity for that long? I doubt it -- especially in this county.
Another 6 years of crisis is my best guess, with a messy transition to the next 1T.
With pathological leadership as in China or Russia from about 110 to 60 years ago, a protracted Crisis Era is possible. I see Crises as waves of either horror or monumental change. Trump may be awful, but he certainly isn't Josef Stalin or Chiang Kai-Shek.
Crises conclude when what used to seem inevitable and indelible becomes impossible. The Crisis of 1780 ended when what had been squabbling little states of shaky sovereignty that could have turned against each other with the aid of foreign powers formed a powerful new Union that ambitious powers overseas could no longer exploit. The Crisis of 1860 ended when the slavery that the Confederacy seceded to defend was dead once and for all. The Crisis of 1940 ended when the gangster regimes of Germany and Japan were dead and their criminal leadership faced nooses for their crimes.
Will the end of the Trump era be so dramatic as the last three Crises? Probably not. It is hard to top those three Crises. I expect huge changes in our political and economic order, changes that will make a return to some very bad habits enshrined over the last forty... and even sixty years later.
To preserve our Union we need to ensure that we can never have another leader like Donald Trump. That includes reducing the role of economic power in shaping politics. That includes a revival of faith in learning and reason. That includes restoring humanistic values as an expected characteristic of our economic leaders. People like Donald Trump who believe that nothing is more important than themselves believe in nothing except themselves. Such people cannot convince people outside of those like minded, the vicious, and the gullible.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(08-18-2020, 07:39 PM)RadianMay Wrote: It seems to be the case that the homeland generation/gen Z is more conservative than the millennial generation that came before it. Depending on your definition of when gen Z starts, they will start influencing this or the next presidential election.
If and when republican momentum may build up again, I really do hope the Republican Party really gets their act together rather than trying to put an imbecile in office.
I think we all can agree with that. 
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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