Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Classic-Xer]

(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

[Eric the Green]

(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

And by then, we will have taken the vaccine so we don't get it, and you guys won't, so more of you will die. And more of you will die before the vaccine comes too. And then we'll win all the elections! That's one way to win the "cold" civil war!

[David Horn]

(07-15-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: A small portion of the country might find itself living under a liberal dictatorship of some sort or Marshall Law as the rest of the country remains free. We are in the process of deciding and sorting that out (who wants what, who prefers to live this way or that way and so forth) among ourselves  right now. I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of America won't go along with a dictatorship of any kind for any reason at this point.

The parts of the country living free, as you call it, are also the parts of the country rapidly succumbing to COVID-19. In other words, your philosophy only prevails when times are ideal, but fails under stress every time. Since stress is inevitable, we can assume that you will be living in the New Third World in short order. Enjoy it while you can.

[David Horn]

(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: ...  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

Flash! After attending a COVID party and getting ill, one young participant finally admitted that the disease was actually serious and getting sick on purpose was a mistake.  He died four days later.*

*I couldn't pass by the opportunity to post this cite from Fox News, though better versions of the story were readily available.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-15-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: A small portion of the country might find itself living under a liberal dictatorship of some sort or Marshall Law as the rest of the country remains free. We are in the process of deciding and sorting that out (who wants what, who prefers to live this way or that way and so forth) among ourselves  right now. I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of America won't go along with a dictatorship of any kind for any reason at this point.

Both parts of the country are deciding and sorting out.  If you are aware of S&H's theory, you can guess how it will come out in the end.  Some reds are trying to cling to the unraveling mind set.  They are putting their own 'freedoms' and convenience above the needs of the community and country.  The way the virus works, they are going to have to learn discipline and care for one another or die.  Our excuse was a greater population density and more airport infrastructure.  With a lower population density, a playbook that has been oft successful and lots of time to prepare, what is your excuse?

Many blues have moved on to the crisis mind set, a willingness to sacrifice a bit for the good of the community.  At the same time, they are measuring the need for a racist divide against the push for equality.

I agree that dictatorship would be rejected, notably an attempt a personal power, but sacrifice for the good of the community and decisive government is part of the game during a crisis heart.  The crisis problem must be solved.  Whatever it takes.  Once we switch to a high mentality, a decisive organized government will fade slowly until we are a mess by the next unraveling.  You may look back to the time of greed.  Me, I paid my dues and collected my reward, but think it appropriate and right that the bill is coming due.  There is more to life than unraveling.

[pbrower2a]

(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

Most people who get COVID-19 will survive, but this respiratory ailment is unusually costly to treat and hard to shake. It causes lung scarring and has triggered diabetes, itself an expensive medical condition. It can kill seemingly-healthy people through cytokine storms of the types that killed multitudes of young (then Lost) adults in the Spanish influenza attack of a century ago. 

It is just not worth it! People who missed getting the disease and immunity thereto will be able to get a vaccine based on dead viruses -- some time next year. 

Considering things to which I consider similarly dangerous as COVID-19 that I don't do because such are simply stupid risks -- drunk driving, driving while texting or using a cell phone, having unprotected sex with complete strangers, visiting Syria or North Korea, using street drugs, doing violent crime, failing to heed warning signs about cliffs or waterfalls, or breaking into a house full of dogs... I don't want any case of COVID-19. 

I can't stop people from doing those things. I don't do them. The most that I can do is to mock people who do such things.* It is more difficult to avoid COVID-19, and doing so is worth some constraints on my personal life and some frustrations that come from that.  

*There's a man that I could nominate for an honorable mention (he did not die, but he came close, so that is good for an honorable mention for doing something really stupid without the intent of getting killed or crippled -- or losing his reproductive ability) for a Darwin Award (if I could verify the story)... a man broke into a house in a rural area not knowing that a dog was there. He did get out of the house, but he forgot to close the door behind him. The leopard (which is practically what the dog became under the circumstances) chased him down, overpowered  him, mauled him badly, and pulled off the man's shoes. It was winter in Michigan, so the crook could have died from exposure or blood loss, but somehow he got taken the local hospital. The dog's owner was distraught  that his dog was gone... but his dog (it was no longer a threat to life and limb as it no longer faced a burglar) did return with some bloody shoes. The homeowner did call the police, who took the shoes to the county hospital and found the shoes' rightful owner, rightfully reuniting the shoes with him. The police also united the burglar with handcuffs in preparing him for an extended stay in prison. 

The burglar does not have to wear those bloody shoes anymore!

[Eric the Green]

Reminds me of a Perry Mason moment. Dean Harens playing Riley Morgan on the witness stand: "Why don't you ask me about the shoes?!" Perry: "I intend to." Soon after that, Riley pushes the shoes off the stand and says, "I committed one murder and got away with it. I guess I should have quit while I was ahead, huh?"

[pbrower2a]

Consider the state; it is a must-win for President Trump. Florida. It looks like an outlier until one recognizes that this polling data is event-related. Nothing is more permanent than death (unless it is simply a 'technical death' from which one is revived) -- of if one arose from the dead after being crucified and is the Son of God (belief in which is of course essential to Christianity).

No resurrections here, and I doubt that anything can now resurrect the chance of re-election of Donald Trump based on this poll. Pardon me, please, if you think the allusion to Jesus and Donald Trump in one sentence or paragraph is sacrilege. The real sacrilege is how Donald Judas Iscariot Trump has betrayed America.

 

Quote:Florida: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 924 RV (change from April)

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 58 (+7)

Biden 51 (+5), Trump 38 (-4)

Event-related, but nothing is more obvious that one cannot undo death, especially mass death.

Other material:

Quote:With a surge of coronavirus cases in Florida making it a hotspot, voters say 79 - 20 percent that people in the state should be required to wear face masks in public, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. There is overwhelming support for requiring face masks among all ages and every other listed demographic group.

Eighty-three percent say the spread of the coronavirus is a serious problem in the state, while 16 percent say it is not.

Seventy percent consider the spread of the coronavirus in Florida "out of control." Twenty-four percent say it is "under control."

Looking back, 61 percent of voters think Governor Ron DeSantis reopened the economy "too quickly." Thirty-one percent think he reopened "at about the right pace" and 6 percent say he reopened "too slowly."

When it comes, however, to whether voters think the governor should issue a stay-at-home order for the state to slow the spread of the coronavirus, they are split. Forty-nine percent say yes, while 48 percent say no.

On the two Republican senators: Rick Scott approval 41-44; Marco Rubio approval 40-44... the two Senators don't seem to be hit too hard.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less in 2016 changes big in Florida. Yes, it is one poll, but it relates to an indelible event, a disaster far worse than the usual one (hurricanes) that strike Florida. Democrat Obama and Republican Scott were a far better team in dealing with hurricanes than is Trump and de Santis with COVID-19.






Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

At this point I can see President Trump losing over 300 electoral votes by over 10%.

Going back in time, Dukakis lost 269 electoral votes by 10% or more in 1988.
Mondale lost 417 in his blowout loss to Reagan in 1984.
Carter lost 'only' 234 states by double-digit margins in 1980. Note that he lost many states by relatively small margins. Had it not been for the Hostage Crisis in Iran he might have been re-elected.
McGovern lost 491 electoral votes by such margins in 1972.
Goldwater lost 440 electoral votes that decisively in 1964.
Stevenson lost all but 132 electoral votes (405) to Ike in 1956.

Troubled candidate, troubled Party that year, or super-successful incumbent. That is your interpretation to make.

[Eric the Green]

Real Clear Politics average, Trump job approval:

RCP Average 7/12 - 7/28
approve 42.9
disapprove 55.8
-12.9

YouGov 7/26 - 7/28 1260 RV 44 53 -9
Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/28 1500 LV 45 54 -9
Reuters 7/27 - 7/28 947 RV 40 58 -18
The Hill 7/24 - 7/26 2842 RV 44 56 -12
CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 1039 LV 44 56 -12
Politico 7/24 - 7/26 1997 RV 40 57 -17
Harris 7/21 - 7/23 1932 RV 44 56 -12
FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 1104 RV 45 54 -9
ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html


Five thirty eight Trump job approval rating average:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...l-ratings/
disapprove 55.6
approve 40.4
-15.2

[Eric the Green]

Trump disapproval 53.4, approval 43.2. +10.2 disapproval.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...l-ratings/

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone want to guess where President Trump's approval will be in Michigan this weekend?

[David Horn]

(10-08-2020, 08:24 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Does anyone want to guess where President Trump's approval will be in Michigan this weekend?

I don't know. There are a lot of Michigan Militia types in the rural areas, so the swing may not be great.

[Eric the Green]

(10-08-2020, 08:24 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Does anyone want to guess where President Trump's approval will be in Michigan this weekend?

His poll average against Biden lost an entire point; we know that much.

[pbrower2a]

Well, here are the results




Somehow Georgia and North Carolina are undecided, but as I see it, the leads are large enough that no recounts are going to change the crude numbers significantly. Georgia is a bare win for Biden and North Carolina is a bare win for Trump, as I see it. Thus

J. Biden, K. Harris (D) 305 electoral votes
D. Trump, M. Pence (R, incumbent) 232 electoral votes

decided by 1% or less saturation 2 -- marginal wins
decided by 1% or more but less than 5% saturation 3 -- weak wins
decided by 5% or more but less than 10% saturation 5 -- strong wins
decided by 10% or more saturation 7 -- overpowering wins

A few comments:

1. All states have 'landed' into the categories that they will stay in. A few states, most notably California, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, and Ohio have 4% or more of their vote outstanding. The vote outstanding in those states (as of November 12) are presumably almost entirely from absentee voters in urban areas. Except for Ohio these are in states that are already non-close (10% or higher) wins for Biden, so none of those could be category-changers. The 4% of the vote out in Ohio would have to go about 90% for Biden for Ohio to go from 'close to being close' to 'close". Ohio remains in the 'strong Trump'    

Only eight states were decided by 5% or less, and I am guessing the often wayward Second Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska. That is 125 of 538 electoral votes. The rest of the country wasn't really close.

If I am in the foreign intelligence service of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China, I would see a map like this and see a country grossly unstable and potential prey for mischief. If conquering the United States is effectively impossible, then splintering it into warring entities (think of the former Yugoslavia) looks much easier. If I am in the foreign intelligence service of such a country as Germany, India, Japan, or the UK and prefer a solid USA as a reliable ally I would be concerned about the polarization. Considering that the D-R split is on cultural lines almost as severe as those that rifted the former Yugoslavia, I would see great opportunity if I wanted the one great superpower to disintegrate.

I see another parallel in Spain in the 1930's, where large parts of the country were about as modern in attitudes of the time as... well, New England... and others had attitudes characteristic of the late middle ages. Spanish reactionaries accepted only one modernity: technology, and that is far from enough for getting along with people with modern sensibilities. That modernity was adequate for the victory of Francisco Franco. America may not have much of a radical Left, but it certainly has a significant, fascist Right.

3. The map is amazingly like that of 2016, with only five states and one Congressional district changing sides (and I am calling Georgia for Biden). This is very close to what I would have expected with an even shift of 1.6% of the popular vote from Trump to Biden. The voters dying off or becoming unable to vote due to debility from 2016 were almost entirely over 55, and those voters (it is about the same for the Silent Generation born 1925 to 1942, Boomers born between 1943 and 1960, and the first five years of Generation X born between 1961 and 1981, using the definitions of Howe and Strauss) were about 5% more R than D and new voters replacing them (almost entirely Millennial adults under 40) are about 20% more D than R. Figuring that the potential age-span of voters is about 60 years, and about 1.6% of the voters from the last Presidential election dies off or goes too senile to vote each year, that is about a 1.6 shift if nothing else really changes.

That may be the best explanation. That would have been enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the election from the 2016 election to the 2020 election, and those states went from bare wins for Trump to bare wins for Biden. Biden may not have obvious youth appeal, but Trump does nothing to offset the D drift among Millennial voters. Trump did hold Florida and its 29 electoral votes -- only to lose instead those of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), and Nebraska's Second Congressional District (1) instead. That is one electoral vote short of a wash.

4. Here are two approval polls from fully after the election:

Quote:Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 6-10, 1363 adults including 1169 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)


RV:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

So Ipsos has a very different picture than The Economist does.

Obviously one typically had to register to vote, and not all who registered to vote did so. 57% disapproval is hideous, suggesting a political failure. The 43% strongly disapproving of President Trump were never going to vote for him, and their attitudes range from seeing him as at least an abject failure to  (well, I will spare us all any graphic language). Half of those registered voters, if they represent actual voters, still voted for him if they disapproved of his Presidency. Was it of the personality or the results?

Quote:Another pollster has actual voters as the measure, and those are close (why should one expect otherwise) to the electoral results:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 8-10, 1500 RV, including 802 Biden voters and 599 Trump voters

All RV:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)


Biden voters:

Approve 3
Disapprove 97

Strongly approve 1
Strongly disapprove 92


Trump voters:

Approve 95
Disapprove 4

Strongly approve 72
Strongly disapprove 1

In this case, disapproval of Trump was close to the electoral result in Biden votes.

5. As with Obama going into 2012, so I figured it would be so with Trump in 2020: the best predictor of the electoral result would be 100-disapproval. I could not imagine any metric better for predicting either the nationwide result than this number. An incumbent President, whether a good one by most non-ideological measures or a horrid one by most non-ideological measures, has control of the agenda so that he can have a good chance of winning undecided voters as election time approaches. An incumbent politician of any kind whose approval numbers are 43 approve and 45 disapprove rather early has plenty of opportunity to get 50% of the vote in the next election by supporting popular legislation in his bailiwick and having a spirited campaign. But get disapproval over 51 at any point, and you have trouble. Coming back from such a number or despite facing such disapproval numbers is difficult-to-highly unlikely.

6. I was one of those who saw Trump crashing and burning in a landslide -- something in the range of 413 electoral votes. As it turns out, Trump did far better than 100-disapproval just a couple months ago suggested. I saw him as a failure in the league of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980, if for different reasons. I could easily say of him "I hate his guts" as I rarely do of any political figure short of any of the three emperors-in-all-but name of North Korea, Haile Mengistu, Pol Pot, either Duvalier, Idi Amin, Satan Hussein, either Assad, or al-Baghdadi.

I have compared the character of Donald Trump to the most incontrovertibly-infamous three Roman Emperors for corruption, cruelty, incompetence, and sexual depravity: Caligula, Nero, and Commodus. Imperial Rome was a corrupt society in the extreme, and Presidents of the United States on the whole are far better than the lot of Imperatores Romanorum. Trump better fits as a Roman Emperor than a President of the United States for his intemperance and his despotic tendencies.

7. So how did Trump make it closer than I expected? He must have convinced many that even if they hated his guts they would be wise to vote for them... almost certainly out of fear of crime in the streets, left-wing terrorism, socialism as practiced under Fidel/Raul Castro or Hugo Chavez/Nicolas Maduro, and a faltering economy. Of course I give credit to Barack Obama for the seven-year boom going into the Trump Presidency; of course I like the civic peace that was the norm under Obama; of course I prefer scandal-free public and personal life of the President and his administration; of course I prefer a President who defers to science and expertise instead of gut feelings. I fault the President for his bungled treatment of COVID-19. I consider a vile critter whom I would never want in my midst. I despise his serial adultery and his disrespect for our service personnel, current and former. As someone with a disability that messes up my life, I have nothing but contempt for anyone who mocks disabilities. Anyone who can say that there are good people on both sides of a divide between violent fascists and... well, anyone who stands for the virtues needed in a democratic society to keep it democratic tears at democracy.   But even more, I can only think ill of someone who has bragged about grabbing women by their crotches.

OK, Donald Trump is about as pure an example of Homo oeconomicus, the person has his own gain and indulgence above all else in life, as anyone who has ever gotten so high in the political arena. He knows something that most of us don't want to admit: that the highest principle that many have is their economic lives, and that they will do odious things and align with odious persons and causes to that end. His campaign exploited that quite competently.

8. The observation that Texas is becoming increasingly like America as a whole in its politics is well justified. It seems to be going the opposite direction of Iowa and Ohio. Iowa and Ohio moved slightly from the high-single-digit margins that I associate with Trump in 2016, but Texas moved more to the Left than just about any state (OK, Maine at-large, Minnesota, and New Hampshire). Except that Texas will likely have 40 electoral votes in 2014 I would not speak of this.

[Eric the Green]

The Republicans got a surge of votes in the election, but it was not enough to re-elect Trump because just enough people in swing states realized who and what Trump is, something that even some Republican and a lot of independent voters could not quite stomach as being president another 4 years.

The Biden electoral vote will be 306 to Trump's 232, which exactly reverses Trump's triumph over Hillary R. Clinton in 2016.

Ohio and Iowa should be considered red states now for the foreseeable future. Unlike what Obama says, I don't think we should campaign for red states anymore. These people are hopeless. We just have to defeat them until they die off.

Florida also seems hopeless, at least for a while. The Cuban young people are falling in line with the deception that rules their elders. Older people tend to vote for the old ways. Even felons with restored rights, the Parkland kids, migrations from Puerto Rico and Haiti, the rising seas, floods and storms due to climate change, and concerns over covid, social security and health care, could not move these dufus Florida beasts to do the right thing. Shame, shame on them! They will probably sink and drown in the blue sea before they ever turn blue enough to stop the tide. They have it coming to them.

The other 7 states probably remain in swing territory, but Texas too should probably be given up on for a while. Hispanics there too are going over to the dark side. It may turn blue someday, but I don't hold out much hope for this anytime soon. Contrary to what brower said, Texas only moved 3 points left in 2020 from 2016, from 9 points to 6 points. That's a slow turn indeed. So maybe there will be a 50-50 chance in 2028 if trends continue. Georgia and Arizona made bigger blue gains.

Arizona was a lot closer than the polls indicated. So it remains a swing state, but the trend there and in Nevada remains blue. The West seems better able to rise above the fog and go with the future. I think these two states will continue to trend more blue.

The blue wall was restored. If the Democrats choose their candidate wisely, and avoid Kamala Harris, then they may keep it from being dismantled again in the future. Pennsylvania is divided between urban and rural. But Philadelphia is no longer a declining city, so hope remains for PA to remain blue. Wisconsin remains a razor thin swing state, and Michigan will stay blue if a good Democratic candidate is nominated. But the working class in these states needs to remember who is on their side, and not get deceived by phony appeals like the ones Trump made.

North Carolina has been slowly moving to the blue side, but I don't know if it will. I keep hoping and being disappointed. The polls said it would be 2% blue, but it was 1% red. But Georgia's urban areas are growing fast with lots of former northerners moving to them. I think there's a good chance it will stay blue now, if the Democrats nominate a good candidate.

The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.

I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.

The national popular vote, which will remain irrelevant for the foreseeable future, is now up to Biden +3.5%, gradually moving toward a 6 million vote margin. New York still refuses to count its remaining ballots, and CA counting is glacial. So his lead may end up bigger. I remember that the polls never had Biden up much higher than 50-51%. Trump's support was usually put at about 43%. But that always left a large undecided vote of about 4-5%, which remained until election day, and so most late deciders evidently went to Trump, or they were too ashamed to say that they were going to vote for him, but were wavering or didn't want to admit it.

[Eric the Green]

Let's see that map in big bold correct colors! (Georgia still not called by AP; CBS and NBC have called GA for Biden)

[pbrower2a]

(11-14-2020, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Republicans got a surge of votes in the election, but it was not enough to re-elect Trump because just enough people in swing states realized who and what Trump is, something that even some Republican and a lot of independent voters could not quite stomach as being president another 4 years.

The Biden electoral vote will be 306 to Trump's 232, which exactly reverses Trump's triumph over Hillary R. Clinton in 2016.

Ohio and Iowa should be considered red states now for the foreseeable future. Unlike what Obama says, I don't think we should campaign for red states anymore. These people are hopeless. We just have to defeat them until they die off.

The big divide is typically between "urban" and "rural", with the usual in-between of "suburban" becoming increasingly "urban" in character. Urban growth in those two states has largely stalled (Iowa) or has been cannibalization of other urban areas within the state (Columbus drawing people from other cities and suburbs in Ohio).  Urban growth just isn't happening on net in Iowa or Ohio. 

Quote:Florida also seems hopeless, at least for a while. The Cuban young people are falling in line with the deception that rules their elders. Older people tend to vote for the old ways. Even felons with restored rights, the Parkland kids, migrations from Puerto Rico and Haiti, the rising seas, floods and storms due to climate change, and concerns over covid, social security and health care, could not move these dufus Florida beasts to do the right thing. Shame, shame on them! They will probably sink and drown in the blue sea before they ever turn blue enough to stop the tide. They have it coming to them.

Trump played upon hatred of 'socialism' in Cuba and Venezuela with the message that to defend against the mess that is in either country one must stand with the most blatant exponent of crony capitalism... and Trump is the definitive crony capitalist. Never mind that pathological capitalism makes a Fidel Castro or a Hugo Chavez attractive as a solution.

Republicans might not be able to play that theme so successfully in Florida in 2024 if the Biden administration simply 'fails' to be as bad as Trump said he would be. It was a shaky appeal in 2012 against Obama.

We need to recognize that Trump did better than we could have expected because he pushed a "You'll be sorry if you vote me out". If people are not sorry about voting for Biden, or regret voting for Trump despite having had the inclination to vote otherwise, then 2024 could be a very bleak year for Republicans.  
 

Quote:The other 7 states probably remain in swing territory, but Texas too should probably be given up on for a while. Hispanics there too are going over to the dark side. It may turn blue someday, but I don't hold out much hope for this anytime soon. Contrary to what brower said, Texas only moved 3 points left in 2020 from 2016, from 9 points to 6 points. That's a slow turn indeed. So maybe there will be a 50-50 chance in 2028 if trends continue. Georgia and Arizona made bigger blue gains.

I wouldn't. Texas is becoming more like the USA as a whole in its politics. 40 or so electoral votes could be compensation for D weaknesses elsewhere. Texas is not in any one region and in fact straddles regions. Things must go well for Texas to swing D, but I see it closer than either Iowa or Ohio (see above). 

Quote:Arizona was a lot closer than the polls indicated. So it remains a swing state, but the trend there and in Nevada remains blue. The West seems better able to rise above the fog and go with the future. I think these two states will continue to trend more blue.

Arizona could still be a one-time fluke for Democrats. To be sure, the demographic trend moving all states in the southwestern tier of the United States from R to D except Utah is in this order: California (from 1992), Colorado and New Mexico (2008), Arizona (2020) and perhaps Texas (2024?) depends heavily on the rapid growth of the Hispanic part of the electorate or on liberals moving in from elsewhere. Utah? That would depend upon heavy growth of a Hispanic electorate (not until 2050), liberals moving in (not happening), or Mormons going D (which would be a reversal of Eisenhower winning Mormons to the Republican Party about 70 years ago. 

Quote:The blue wall was restored. If the Democrats choose their candidate wisely, and avoid Kamala Harris, then they may keep it from being dismantled again in the future. Pennsylvania is divided between urban and rural. But Philadelphia is no longer a declining city, so hope remains for PA to remain blue. Wisconsin remains a razor thin swing state, and Michigan will stay blue if a good Democratic candidate is nominated. But the working class in these states needs to remember who is on their side, and not get deceived by phony appeals like the ones Trump made.

The "blue wall" is now a shaky part of any D win of the Presidency. Democrats last won the Presidency without Michigan in 1976, when Jimmy Carter won every former Confederate state except Virginia. Iowa and Ohio used to be necessary parts of D victories in the electoral college; that is over. Michigan going for Trump in 2016 looks like a one-time fluke. Democrats still need Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or things get incredibly iffy; they might need Texas or Florida to offset Pennsylvania and Wisconsin together.  

Quote:North Carolina has been slowly moving to the blue side, but I don't know if it will. I keep hoping and being disappointed. The polls said it would be 2% blue, but it was 1% red. But Georgia's urban areas are growing fast with lots of former northerners moving to them. I think there's a good chance it will stay blue now, if the Democrats nominate a good candidate.

Trump surprised us in a lot of states, making a late charge in the polls. He made the nastiest appeal possible short of smearing Democrats as friends of Castro and Maduro (which would not have worked outside of Florida) basically he said what an abusive spouse says to his victim:

"You'll be sorry if you leave me!"

You may hate the abuse, but you are really helpless. You need a pure plutocracy to create the wealth that allows you to hold or get a job. The tax cuts that go to shareholders, executives, and landlords may not go to you, but they make investment possible. Harsh management makes things tick. That is the dare, and some times it works. With enough people it can cause people to vote for a politician that one loathes. That explains why Donald Trump did better than my favorite predictor, 100-disapproval, suggests. It worked well for Obama, which is why I used it for Trump.

Donald Trump is an abusive person, someone who would have gotten a long prison term except for being filthy rich. America will be much better with him off the scene.  

   

Quote:The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.

Marco Rubio is almost as much an empty suit as Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). He will need to exploit the Commie-baiting rhetoric of Trump to save him, and that might be neither available or relevant in 2022. This said, midterm elections usually go badly for the Party in the White House. I see no reason to believe otherwise. Plutocrats flush with cash will fund any empty suit pol who believes as they do that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the name of elite power, indulgence, and gain. That is how the Tea Party came into existence, and that will rely heavily upon Trump supporters staying in the electorate in large numbers while Trump-despisers retreat from the electorate.

On the other hand, Millennial participation in the electorate is likely to increase as other generations shrink in the electorate. Millennial pols did not make much headway in 2020, but figure that the oldest of them will be 41 just as the Silent and early-wave Boomers either retire or go into that good night. (This applies to an 89-year-old Chuck Grassley, R-IA).   

Quote:I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.

Sorry, Eric: this would set up a situation in which large minorities, especially of Southern blacks, would be at the mercy of racist white people who would be delighted to either re-establish Jim Crow practice or Apartheid. The best defense of the federal system is that it protects the rights of vulnerable minorities against the worst tendencies in human nature. We all know what life was like in Kukluxistan, and that could be how things go again in some states. 

Quote:The national popular vote, which will remain irrelevant for the foreseeable future, is now up to Biden +3.5%, gradually moving toward a 6 million vote margin. New York still refuses to count its remaining ballots, and CA counting is glacial. So his lead may end up bigger. I remember that the polls never had Biden up much higher than 50-51%. Trump's support was usually put at about 43%. But that always left a large undecided vote of about 4-5%, which remained until election day, and so most late deciders evidently went to Trump, or they were too ashamed to say that they were going to vote for him, but were wavering or didn't want to admit it.

Trump is a one-off demagogue. There have been people similar to him in dishonesty, recklessness, and cruelty  in America (I think of Senator Joseph R. McCarthy, infamous for Red-baiting of imaginary Communists). Joe McCarthy was never going to be President of the United States. He lacked the funding behind him, and had he lived to challenge John F. Kennedy  by winning the Republican nomination... Kennedy had the more ebullient personality and a more coherent domestic policy. Southern racist Democrats of the Old South had no appeal outside the South.

Democrats will be vindicated, and Trump won't, when the vaccine for COVID-19 comes out and the economy strengthens. People with COVID-19 die in silence and often without any ceremony... the death toll resembles that of a bad war, and people have yet to feel the impact. There are no Gold Stars or Purple Hearts in this bungled, costly stalemate of a war. Yes, it is a war. There will be no armistice or truce, and there will be no victory parades. 

Things could go badly for the Republican Party in Florida should Cuba or Venezuela abandon socialism and anti-American rhetoric.

[Eric the Green]

(11-14-2020, 04:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-14-2020, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.

Marco Rubio is almost as much an empty suit as Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). He will need to exploit the Commie-baiting rhetoric of Trump to save him, and that might be neither available or relevant in 2022. This said, midterm elections usually go badly for the Party in the White House. I see no reason to believe otherwise. Plutocrats flush with cash will fund any empty suit pol who believes as they do that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the name of elite power, indulgence, and gain. That is how the Tea Party came into existence, and that will rely heavily upon Trump supporters staying in the electorate in large numbers while Trump-despisers retreat from the electorate.

On the other hand, Millennial participation in the electorate is likely to increase as other generations shrink in the electorate. Millennial pols did not make much headway in 2020, but figure that the oldest of them will be 41 just as the Silent and early-wave Boomers either retire or go into that good night. (This applies to an 89-year-old Chuck Grassley, R-IA).   

I see no chance of beating Rubio; he is respected as a national leader, and he may run again for president. His score is back up to 13-7.

I know midterms are hard to win for the party in power. Usually it's the 6th-year midterm that is the hardest. But recently Republicans have been able to mobilize their trickle-down economics ideology against the Democrats to great effect, as in 1994 and 2010. We can only hope that the strength of the Democrats in the younger and diverse demographics will step up to their civic archetype and vote in 2022 as they did in 2018. Biden will not be able to get much passed in congress in the first 2 years. Whether that leads young people to be frustrated with him, as happened to Obama even though he briefly had a workable majority to pass a few things, or whether it means that there will be less legislation for older Republicans to react against, remains to be seen.

Quote:

Quote:I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.

Sorry, Eric: this would set up a situation in which large minorities, especially of Southern blacks, would be at the mercy of racist white people who would be delighted to either re-establish Jim Crow practice or Apartheid. The best defense of the federal system is that it protects the rights of vulnerable minorities against the worst tendencies in human nature. We all know what life was like in Kukluxistan, and that could be how things go again in some states. 

I don't know what will happen, but I suspect that the solution for blacks in Dixie KuKluxistan would be to move out, going north and west. Many have done so since the 1930s. If they can conceive a new dedication to safety and law and order, there is plenty of room for Detroit to build back. If they move to upper midwest cities, which have declined in population, that would help solidify the blue wall and encourage them to join blue states nation. A new blue-state government would be willing to help them build better lives if these states join on, and the racists move south. Red and blue are so starkly separated now that separating seems natural, except for 6 or 7 states which could divide internally. I suspect there would be a lot of cross migration if we separate, something which has already been happening more slowly for decades. Internal divisions within states would be the chief problem with separating.

[beechnut79]

(11-15-2020, 02:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-14-2020, 04:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-14-2020, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.

Marco Rubio is almost as much an empty suit as Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). He will need to exploit the Commie-baiting rhetoric of Trump to save him, and that might be neither available or relevant in 2022. This said, midterm elections usually go badly for the Party in the White House. I see no reason to believe otherwise. Plutocrats flush with cash will fund any empty suit pol who believes as they do that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the name of elite power, indulgence, and gain. That is how the Tea Party came into existence, and that will rely heavily upon Trump supporters staying in the electorate in large numbers while Trump-despisers retreat from the electorate.

On the other hand, Millennial participation in the electorate is likely to increase as other generations shrink in the electorate. Millennial pols did not make much headway in 2020, but figure that the oldest of them will be 41 just as the Silent and early-wave Boomers either retire or go into that good night. (This applies to an 89-year-old Chuck Grassley, R-IA).   

I see no chance of beating Rubio; he is respected as a national leader, and he may run again for president. His score is back up to 13-7.

I know midterms are hard to win for the party in power. Usually it's the 6th-year midterm that is the hardest. But recently Republicans have been able to mobilize their trickle-down economics ideology against the Democrats to great effect, as in 1994 and 2010. We can only hope that the strength of the Democrats in the younger and diverse demographics will step up to their civic archetype and vote in 2022 as they did in 2018. Biden will not be able to get much passed in congress in the first 2 years. Whether that leads young people to be frustrated with him, as happened to Obama even though he briefly had a workable majority to pass a few things, or whether it means that there will be less legislation for older Republicans to react against, remains to be seen.

Quote:

Quote:I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.

Sorry, Eric: this would set up a situation in which large minorities, especially of Southern blacks, would be at the mercy of racist white people who would be delighted to either re-establish Jim Crow practice or Apartheid. The best defense of the federal system is that it protects the rights of vulnerable minorities against the worst tendencies in human nature. We all know what life was like in Kukluxistan, and that could be how things go again in some states. 

I don't know what will happen, but I suspect that the solution for blacks in Dixie KuKluxistan would be to move out, going north and west. Many have done so since the 1930s. If they can conceive a new dedication to safety and law and order, there is plenty of room for Detroit to build back. If they move to upper midwest cities, which have declined in population, that would help solidify the blue wall and encourage them to join blue states nation. A new blue-state government would be willing to help them build better lives if these states join on, and the racists move south. Red and blue are so starkly separated now that separating seems natural, except for 6 or 7 states which could divide internally. I suspect there would be a lot of cross migration if we separate, something which has already been happening more slowly for decades. Internal divisions within states would be the chief problem with separating.

Will try naming those states most likely to divide amongst themselves. I would say Illinois, Pennsylvania and Texas. Who else?