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Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability
(06-05-2020, 11:47 AM)Isoko Wrote: Sorry David but you have it wrong about Brexit. The UK has always been squabbling about its EU membership right from day one. It's just when Thatcher restored the UK to economic prosperity, the voices muffled. When the economy started to struggle again, the fingers were out for the EU and ended up with Brexit after a two decade fight. It was never an anomaly but more of an inevitability.

To be honest, when it comes to the economy, it does not matter if the UK stays or leaves. The EU economy has been suffering since 2008 and the coronavirus has hit the nail on the head. It's basically a damned if you so situation. UK is going to get economically pounded either way.

Regarding Trump, it's like I have always said, the Democratic experiment in America is coming to an end and the next result will be an American Putinism (or basically caesarism). You need it in order to rebuild your house in order as democracy is too ineffectual right now to restore your fortunes.
A small portion of the country might find itself living under a liberal dictatorship of some sort or Marshall Law as the rest of the country remains free. We are in the process of deciding and sorting that out (who wants what, who prefers to live this way or that way and so forth) among ourselves right now. I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of America won't go along with a dictatorship of any kind for any reason at this point.
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(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.
Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.
Reply
(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.
Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

And by then, we will have taken the vaccine so we don't get it, and you guys won't, so more of you will die. And more of you will die before the vaccine comes too. And then we'll win all the elections! That's one way to win the "cold" civil war!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
(07-15-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: A small portion of the country might find itself living under a liberal dictatorship of some sort or Marshall Law as the rest of the country remains free. We are in the process of deciding and sorting that out (who wants what, who prefers to live this way or that way and so forth) among ourselves  right now. I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of America won't go along with a dictatorship of any kind for any reason at this point.

The parts of the country living free, as you call it, are also the parts of the country rapidly succumbing to COVID-19. In other words, your philosophy only prevails when times are ideal, but fails under stress every time. Since stress is inevitable, we can assume that you will be living in the New Third World in short order. Enjoy it while you can.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: ...  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

Flash! After attending a COVID party and getting ill, one young participant finally admitted that the disease was actually serious and getting sick on purpose was a mistake.  He died four days later.*

*I couldn't pass by the opportunity to post this cite from Fox News, though better versions of the story were readily available.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
(07-15-2020, 12:03 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: A small portion of the country might find itself living under a liberal dictatorship of some sort or Marshall Law as the rest of the country remains free. We are in the process of deciding and sorting that out (who wants what, who prefers to live this way or that way and so forth) among ourselves  right now. I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of America won't go along with a dictatorship of any kind for any reason at this point.

Both parts of the country are deciding and sorting out.  If you are aware of S&H's theory, you can guess how it will come out in the end.  Some reds are trying to cling to the unraveling mind set.  They are putting their own 'freedoms' and convenience above the needs of the community and country.  The way the virus works, they are going to have to learn discipline and care for one another or die.  Our excuse was a greater population density and more airport infrastructure.  With a lower population density, a playbook that has been oft successful and lots of time to prepare, what is your excuse?

Many blues have moved on to the crisis mind set, a willingness to sacrifice a bit for the good of the community.  At the same time, they are measuring the need for a racist divide against the push for equality.

I agree that dictatorship would be rejected, notably an attempt a personal power, but sacrifice for the good of the community and decisive government is part of the game during a crisis heart.  The crisis problem must be solved.  Whatever it takes.  Once we switch to a high mentality, a decisive organized government will fade slowly until we are a mess by the next unraveling.  You may look back to the time of greed.  Me, I paid my dues and collected my reward, but think it appropriate and right that the bill is coming due.  There is more to life than unraveling.
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(07-15-2020, 12:25 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.
Yep. They'll most likely get it and survive and most likely be less likely to get it again this year.

Most people who get COVID-19 will survive, but this respiratory ailment is unusually costly to treat and hard to shake. It causes lung scarring and has triggered diabetes, itself an expensive medical condition. It can kill seemingly-healthy people through cytokine storms of the types that killed multitudes of young (then Lost) adults in the Spanish influenza attack of a century ago. 

It is just not worth it! People who missed getting the disease and immunity thereto will be able to get a vaccine based on dead viruses -- some time next year. 

Considering things to which I consider similarly dangerous as COVID-19 that I don't do because such are simply stupid risks -- drunk driving, driving while texting or using a cell phone, having unprotected sex with complete strangers, visiting Syria or North Korea, using street drugs, doing violent crime, failing to heed warning signs about cliffs or waterfalls, or breaking into a house full of dogs... I don't want any case of COVID-19. 

I can't stop people from doing those things. I don't do them. The most that I can do is to mock people who do such things.* It is more difficult to avoid COVID-19, and doing so is worth some constraints on my personal life and some frustrations that come from that.  

*There's a man that I could nominate for an honorable mention (he did not die, but he came close, so that is good for an honorable mention for doing something really stupid without the intent of getting killed or crippled -- or losing his reproductive ability) for a Darwin Award (if I could verify the story)... a man broke into a house in a rural area not knowing that a dog was there. He did get out of the house, but he forgot to close the door behind him. The leopard (which is practically what the dog became under the circumstances) chased him down, overpowered  him, mauled him badly, and pulled off the man's shoes. It was winter in Michigan, so the crook could have died from exposure or blood loss, but somehow he got taken the local hospital. The dog's owner was distraught  that his dog was gone... but his dog (it was no longer a threat to life and limb as it no longer faced a burglar) did return with some bloody shoes. The homeowner did call the police, who took the shoes to the county hospital and found the shoes' rightful owner, rightfully reuniting the shoes with him. The police also united the burglar with handcuffs in preparing him for an extended stay in prison. 

The burglar does not have to wear those bloody shoes anymore!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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Reminds me of a Perry Mason moment. Dean Harens playing Riley Morgan on the witness stand: "Why don't you ask me about the shoes?!" Perry: "I intend to." Soon after that, Riley pushes the shoes off the stand and says, "I committed one murder and got away with it. I guess I should have quit while I was ahead, huh?"

[Image: j9ns8LQQMVUmveABsH-1kQX2TOEem-6MNtKeJEMf...DgzbnCSGsQ]
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
Consider the state; it is a must-win for President Trump. Florida. It looks like an outlier until one recognizes that this polling data is event-related. Nothing is more permanent than death (unless it is simply a 'technical death' from which one is revived) -- of if one arose from the dead after being crucified and is the Son of God (belief in which is of course essential to Christianity).

No resurrections here, and I doubt that anything can now resurrect the chance of re-election of Donald Trump based on this poll. Pardon me, please, if you think the allusion to Jesus and Donald Trump in one sentence or paragraph is sacrilege. The real sacrilege is how Donald Judas Iscariot Trump has betrayed America.

 
Quote:Florida: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 924 RV (change from April)

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 58 (+7)

Biden 51 (+5), Trump 38 (-4)

Event-related, but nothing is more obvious that one cannot undo death, especially mass death.

Other material:

Quote:With a surge of coronavirus cases in Florida making it a hotspot, voters say 79 - 20 percent that people in the state should be required to wear face masks in public, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. There is overwhelming support for requiring face masks among all ages and every other listed demographic group.

Eighty-three percent say the spread of the coronavirus is a serious problem in the state, while 16 percent say it is not.

Seventy percent consider the spread of the coronavirus in Florida "out of control." Twenty-four percent say it is "under control."

Looking back, 61 percent of voters think Governor Ron DeSantis reopened the economy "too quickly." Thirty-one percent think he reopened "at about the right pace" and 6 percent say he reopened "too slowly."

When it comes, however, to whether voters think the governor should issue a stay-at-home order for the state to slow the spread of the coronavirus, they are split. Forty-nine percent say yes, while 48 percent say no.

On the two Republican senators: Rick Scott approval 41-44; Marco Rubio approval 40-44... the two Senators don't seem to be hit too hard.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less in 2016 changes big in Florida. Yes, it is one poll, but it relates to an indelible event, a disaster far worse than the usual one (hurricanes) that strike Florida. Democrat Obama and Republican Scott were a far better team in dealing with hurricanes than is Trump and de Santis with COVID-19.



[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
At this point I can see President Trump losing over 300 electoral votes by over 10%.

Going back in time, Dukakis lost 269 electoral votes by 10% or more in 1988.
Mondale lost 417 in his blowout loss to Reagan in 1984.
Carter lost 'only' 234 states by double-digit margins in 1980. Note that he lost many states by relatively small margins. Had it not been for the Hostage Crisis in Iran he might have been re-elected.
McGovern lost 491 electoral votes by such margins in 1972.
Goldwater lost 440 electoral votes that decisively in 1964.
Stevenson lost all but 132 electoral votes (405) to Ike in 1956.

Troubled candidate, troubled Party that year, or super-successful incumbent. That is your interpretation to make.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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Real Clear Politics average, Trump job approval:

RCP Average 7/12 - 7/28
approve 42.9
disapprove 55.8
-12.9

YouGov 7/26 - 7/28 1260 RV 44 53 -9
Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/28 1500 LV 45 54 -9
Reuters 7/27 - 7/28 947 RV 40 58 -18
The Hill 7/24 - 7/26 2842 RV 44 56 -12
CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 1039 LV 44 56 -12
Politico 7/24 - 7/26 1997 RV 40 57 -17
Harris 7/21 - 7/23 1932 RV 44 56 -12
FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 1104 RV 45 54 -9
ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html


Five thirty eight Trump job approval rating average:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...l-ratings/
disapprove 55.6
approve 40.4
-15.2
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply


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