How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?

[Eric the Green]

(12-20-2016, 12:40 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(12-20-2016, 07:56 AM)Odin Wrote: To me there was a big change in how many candidates were perceived starting in 2008. With Obama, Sanders, and Trump you have had people projecting messianic dreams of world-historical change on them. Look at Obama's campaign rallies in 2008, and Sanders' and Trump's rallies in this election cycle, they all had that same messianic enthusiasm. I don't remember that with previous elections in my lifetime. To me that's a good indicator that something shifted in the collective psyche and that we are 4T.

This strikes me as reaching.  In the absence of something more definitive we can talk about subjective things like perceptions and mood that cannot be ascertained.   Past 4T were period identified from a future perspective, sometimes very far in the future.  What people actually felt is unknowable to such observers. They had to make use of the events that actually happened.  That America faced crises in 1776, 1861 and 1932 was obvious to large numbers of observers long before S&H.

At 8 years in, we are like 1971, 1937, 1867, and 1780.  In all four of these years it was crystal clear that the country had been through and was still in a momentous period of history (i.e. a social moment). I lived through the 2T.  It was obvious shit was going down. FOr decades after people talked about The Sixties as a special period. There was no need to talk about perceptions and moods, it was plain as a pikestaff.  It has NOT been plain as a pikestaff that America has been in a social moment since 2001, or 2005 or 2008, or any of the dates people have floated. This is my point.  No interpretation should be necessary. Momentous change should be underway now.  We have had big scale events: largest foreign attack on American soil since the War of 1812; second largest stock market crash in history; the first financial panic in 75 years.  There have been triggers aplenty, but they haven't ignited anything. 

This is the problem.  According to the theory triggers DO ignite things when the generational constellation is right.  Well its been right for years, with sparks aplenty and we have had bupkis.  How do you explain this?

It's a good question. I explain it, you may remember, by claiming that the 2010s are the 1850s redux. The constellation was in place then too (The Gilded had many civic qualities, according to accounts such as The Civil War series). Nothing but fruitless attempts at compromise and continuing oppression occurred, despite many triggers. The double rhythm happens, and the anomaly is not so anomalous. And the cosmic rhythms confirm timing of events. The 2020s will see the sparks explode. I have predicted the trends of both this decade and the next, decades in advance. Things have unfolded as I expected. I expect this will continue.

Describing past moods in history is very-much possible; we have the poets, artists, essayists and personal accounts of how they felt. It is not just the record of events that we have available to us. The subjective is more real than the objective; it's what we actually experience.

I agree with you that a real 4T will have actual results. These will come only in the 2020s. However, Odin's point is well-taken that with Obama, Sanders and Trump we have had not only candidates, but "movements" and "phenomena." So something is stirring, and it will lead somewhere.

I don't know if it will turn out well. So far, not so good. But my prediction remains that it will turn out pretty good. We'll see.