12-20-2016, 06:54 PM
Gah, I may regret this...
I dunno, Mike, sounds like you're saying Britain didn't have a 4T in the mid-late 19th century. I mean, they had plenty of fuel (Franco-Prussian War, US Civil War, Indian Mutiny, etc.) but what really happened IN BRITAIN?
Not much.
Or look at the previous "4T". The American and French Revolutions were very dramatic, to be sure, but they were happening OVER THERE. Nothing even close came about in Britain. Likewise with the Napoleonic Wars, which really dragged on well into what ought to have been a 1T. Was that a skipped Crisis as well?
Look at who just got elected, under a platform of tariffs and isolationism but also torture(?). Look at the response. Look at the absolute moral panic over Russia by the Democrats, much less the Neocons. The president-elect just spoke to Taiwan directly, for the first time since 1979. Dow pushing 20,000 while earnings stagnate. The EU looking shaky. Pundits bemoaning the collapse of the post-war order. Looks plenty fourth turning to me.
Stop geeking out over the latest indicator de jour ("OMG! TAX CUTS! Well, if the president is proposing tax cuts then nothing will change EVER AGAIN because SCIENCE!). Everybody understands that we are on the cusp of something different, and by that I don't just mean everyone who read S & H. It's just that nobody knows what it is yet. I have continued to be impressed/disappointed in the ability of Obama, Merkel, et al. to keep all of the dishes in the air, and I am fully confident in Trump's inability/lack of interest in doing the same.
Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse.
I dunno, Mike, sounds like you're saying Britain didn't have a 4T in the mid-late 19th century. I mean, they had plenty of fuel (Franco-Prussian War, US Civil War, Indian Mutiny, etc.) but what really happened IN BRITAIN?
Not much.
Or look at the previous "4T". The American and French Revolutions were very dramatic, to be sure, but they were happening OVER THERE. Nothing even close came about in Britain. Likewise with the Napoleonic Wars, which really dragged on well into what ought to have been a 1T. Was that a skipped Crisis as well?
Look at who just got elected, under a platform of tariffs and isolationism but also torture(?). Look at the response. Look at the absolute moral panic over Russia by the Democrats, much less the Neocons. The president-elect just spoke to Taiwan directly, for the first time since 1979. Dow pushing 20,000 while earnings stagnate. The EU looking shaky. Pundits bemoaning the collapse of the post-war order. Looks plenty fourth turning to me.
Stop geeking out over the latest indicator de jour ("OMG! TAX CUTS! Well, if the president is proposing tax cuts then nothing will change EVER AGAIN because SCIENCE!). Everybody understands that we are on the cusp of something different, and by that I don't just mean everyone who read S & H. It's just that nobody knows what it is yet. I have continued to be impressed/disappointed in the ability of Obama, Merkel, et al. to keep all of the dishes in the air, and I am fully confident in Trump's inability/lack of interest in doing the same.
Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse.