How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?

[David Horn]

(12-20-2016, 07:30 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(12-18-2016, 10:02 PM)FLBones Wrote: We are not still in the 3T. You can't go from 3T to 1T without a 4T.

Correct, if the generational theory is valid.  But the proof of the pudding is in application. Either it works or it doesn't.  Back in Generations S&H wrote than not much can be told in a decade. but by 3 or 4 decades from now it will become clear. By the next presidential election it will be about 30 years since Generations, time enough to tell if it works.  It is not hard to recognize that the Revolution, Civil War and New Deal/WWII as major turning points in the development of the American state, dividing it into three "republics". And folks have been anticipating the appearance of the "fourth republic" for some time. 

So, has the fourth republic appeared?  I think not, what I see is the same old see-saw, Democrats get a shot under Clinton, then its the Republicans turn under Bush, then Democrats come back under Obama and now Republican are coming back.  Each time they do the same thing, Democrats try to pass national health care (a goal they have had since the Truman administration) and Republicans cut taxes and run deficits (an option made possible by the 1979 "October Revolution" in Federal Reserve policy). in both cases they cause a lot of unpopularity with their policies and get replaced by the other side as neither party addresses the obvious problem (the middle/working class has been losing ground for forty years).

The same pattern continues on as it has for decades.  We used to call this lack of movement a 3T.  We now call it a 4T, but it isn't materially any different from the 3T before it, which is why it feels wrong.  Now there are all sorts of things that have been suggested here than would be pretty clear-cut indicators of a 4T.  A constitutional convention or even a slew of amendments would be a clean indicator of an emerging "new republic" and definitive proof of a 4T.  The outbreak of mass violence, such as a civil war or insurrection, would also be clear evidence of a 4T.  If the economy collapsed like it did in 1931, this too would serve.  Finally, if through some combination of economic policies (maybe Turchin's right and immigration restriction and tariffs would do the trick) the economic inequality measures peaked and began a long-term decline, why, then we'd be 4T too, although it may take a decade or two to be sure about that.

There are lots of things that could happen (and have in the past) that would be clear-cut "we be 4T" signposts.  Problem is, none of them have happened so far and generationally-speaking we are running out of time (the 1T constellation is due to arrive around 2020). This constellation is determined by the Boomer/GenX split.  The only way to move it back would be if Xers born in the 1960's start to see themselves as Boomers. Any takers here?  I didn't think so

So the 2020 deadline is pretty much baked into the cake.  One of the things above or something like it has to happen like now, or during Trump's first term, at the latest. If it doesn't, the theory will be invalidated.  One can continue on with it, of course, but it would become a crank theory at that point.

I agree on all points but one: events don't have to provide a clear and distinct 4T for the theory to be valid.  Though I'm not a great fan of the mega-saeculum, the idea that 2Ts and 4Ts wax and wane is not at all outrageous.  We've had mild 4Ts in the past.  The Glorious Revolution was more an amalgam of critical events than a singular crisis, yet we have no problem citing it as a 4T.  The last three have been unusually dramatic.  I don't think that's a necessity, and certainly appears to not the case this time.  If, on the other hand, the next 2T will have to spotlight the unresolved 4T issues from this saeculum, or the cycle is essentially dead.