How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?

[Eric the Green]

(12-20-2016, 07:30 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(12-18-2016, 10:02 PM)FLBones Wrote: We are not still in the 3T. You can't go from 3T to 1T without a 4T.

Correct, if the generational theory is valid.  But the proof of the pudding is in application. Either it works or it doesn't.  Back in Generations S&H wrote than not much can be told in a decade. but by 3 or 4 decades from now it will become clear. By the next presidential election it will be about 30 years since Generations, time enough to tell if it works.  It is not hard to recognize that the Revolution, Civil War and New Deal/WWII as major turning points in the development of the American state, dividing it into three "republics". And folks have been anticipating the appearance of the "fourth republic" for some time. 

So, has the fourth republic appeared?  I think not, what I see is the same old see-saw, Democrats get a shot under Clinton, then its the Republicans turn under Bush, then Democrats come back under Obama and now Republican are coming back.  Each time they do the same thing, Democrats try to pass national health care (a goal they have had since the Truman administration) and Republicans cut taxes and run deficits (an option made possible by the 1979 "October Revolution" in Federal Reserve policy). in both cases they cause a lot of unpopularity with their policies and get replaced by the other side as neither party addresses the obvious problem (the middle/working class has been losing ground for forty years).

The same pattern continues on as it has for decades.  We used to call this lack of movement a 3T.  We now call it a 4T, but it isn't materially any different from the 3T before it, which is why it feels wrong.  Now there are all sorts of things that have been suggested here than would be pretty clear-cut indicators of a 4T.  A constitutional convention or even a slew of amendments would be a clean indicator of an emerging "new republic" and definitive proof of a 4T.  The outbreak of mass violence, such as a civil war or insurrection, would also be clear evidence of a 4T.  If the economy collapsed like it did in 1931, this too would serve.  Finally, if through some combination of economic policies (maybe Turchin's right and immigration restriction and tariffs would do the trick) the economic inequality measures peaked and began a long-term decline, why, then we'd be 4T too, although it may take a decade or two to be sure about that.

There are lots of things that could happen (and have in the past) that would be clear-cut "we be 4T" signposts.  Problem is, none of them have happened so far and generationally-speaking we are running out of time (the 1T constellation is due to arrive around 2020). This constellation is determined by the Boomer/GenX split.  The only way to move it back would be if Xers born in the 1960's start to see themselves as Boomers. Any takers here?  I didn't think so

So the 2020 deadline is pretty much baked into the cake.  One of the things above or something like it has to happen like now, or during Trump's first term, at the latest. If it doesn't, the theory will be invalidated.  One can continue on with it, of course, but it would become a crank theory at that point.

The 1T constellation will not be fully in place by 2020. The year you apparently see as a start date for a would-be 1T is 8 years too early. The crisis climax will only rev up to full speed AFTER 2020. Mr. Howe agrees with me too. Wait; you'll see!

There's no reason to assume everything is determined by the Boom/Gen X split, which probably has been assigned too early by the authors. But that's also because the early turnings in this saeculum went by faster than the 3T did. And that, I believe, is due to cosmic timing. "The sixties" had to come when they did. Even so, some 1T conditions remained through our accelerated 2T, because the people were still prosperous and happy overall in "the sixties," despite their awakening and their protests. Also, I think the authors say that nomads enter elderhood when their oldest members become 65, not 60.

Trump is baking in the 4T mood of anger, and ramping it up to a later version of civil war. That's where we're heading, as I've said we would for decades now. It doesn't have to be the same or as bloody as then; it's also going to be the Return of the Revolution. The decline of the middle and working class has to be addressed, along with related problems like climate change. The Republican block has to be removed. We choose that option, or else our 4T is a failure. The question is whether we have reached our peak as a nation and empire, and are about to decline, as some here say; or whether this 4T will be a victory for progress as all the others have been. And yes, progress was real, not just "defined by the winners." It will be our choice, and it may come down to another 70,000 voters in the Rust Belt in 2020 or even 2024.

Success is not guaranteed for the USA. Our 4T may be a dying whimper instead of a glorious fight and victory. That's up to the people. But certainly I think the 2008 crash was enough of a catalyst to define the start of our 4T. This happened exactly how and when I predicted.

One thing I notice is, that the American High was a great climax of prosperity and power for the USA. No nation has experienced anything like it. Things may seem calmer than during the earlier 4Ts whose decisions and achievements prepared the way for this "American Century" and "American High." That's because we are still basking to some degree in that success. And we may be spoiled by it. But people don't feel as desperate as they did in previous Crises, because we are still the number 1 economy and military in the world. We have less to fret about, so our Crisis may be milder-- like the British Crises which the new poster talked about above. We are now in the position Britain was then, and so we could suffer less during this 4T.