12-27-2016, 05:27 PM
Quote:S&H proclaimed that their theory could be used to make predictions--they called it the history of America's future. They identified 4Ts before the Revolution, but they do not dwell on them. Its for good reason because it is hard to show that these periods were specially significant crises (the Glorious Revolution was significant, but more significant than the English Revolution?). But the American revolution, Civil War, and New Deal/WWII are the real deal, big time crises in American history noted by slews of observers.
Do you mean the English Civil War? The one roughly concurrent with the 30 Year's War on the Continent? Well, considering that the Glorious Revolution led to a lasting and dramatic change in Britain's geopolitical situation and domestic political arrangements, while the Commonwealth was tossed to the dustheap of history not too long after Oliver Cromwell's death, I don't think the conclusions they drew is that unreasonable after all.
Quote:S&H with their notion of a 4T are setting expectations of a fourth American crisis that will also be the real deal, like the other ones. Now there are two possibilities. One is we get the same sort of stuff we have seen for the last 16 years. The parties trading off every two terms. Polarization intensifying, the economic situation unchanged etc. In other words a nothing-burger 4T like the Armada. The other is at some point in the future we get the real deal crisis after all.
I am always skeptical of false binaries.
Quote:Suppose a real deal crisis occurs over 2023-2036. It is an obvious social moment which follows the last one (1967-1980) by 56 years. A 56 year spacing is not out of time for the early turnings. Now for ALL the past 4Ts, the start of the social moment was only a few years after the start of the turning. If this happens their would be no reason to draw the 4T start as early as 2008, when the action doesn't get underway until 2023. It would make more sense to date it from 2020, with the crisis of 2020 serving as the trigger. But this would imply a constellation around now, which can only be accommodated by redrawing the generations.
Sure, if you assume that the events we're waiting for happen outside the acceptable date range, then they do indeed fall outside the date range. Not sure if you really said anything profound here, Mike.
Is there any reason to pick those dates over, say, a Crisis Climax occurring from, say, 2020-2024? Where is this constant talk of the 2030s coming from?
Quote:I already had been here before with 911 as a trigger. 911 began to be questioned as the years passed and nothing happened. Then came the events of 2008 and it was reset to 2008. Had Clinton won, it would he a continuation of an "Obama era" beginning in 2008. But Donald Trump is likely to open a new era, which he will begin by undoing as much of the Obama era as he can. Eras that get undone as soon as their creators exit are not the stuff of 4Ts. This election looks very much like an attempt to turn the page of History, which, if successful would be consistent with a 4T beginning in 2016.
I think you should spend a little time re-reading the source material. A catalyst leads to a shift in mood, there is a period of up to a few years where the question of whose hand will be on the tiller is bitterly contested, a regeneracy where one side wins, followed by a Climax a few years after that. While we don't know how the Trump presidency will turn out, we have not exactly departed from the orthodox script as yet, so I am unsure what you are complaining about.
Well, that's not true. I am getting the sense that this sort of hand-waving is simply a displacement of a very typical white, educated liberal reaction to a Trump presidency. I mean, look, the theory called for eventual single party control helmed by a bunch of Boomers. Look at Trump, look at his cabinet. Lot of white guys born in the 40s and 50s, the executive heads of a government controlled by the Republicans to an extent not seen since before the New Deal. We are still on script, and considering T4T was written in 1997, they really nailed the social mood extent here in the 2010s. I can (and have) show(n) the chapter "A Fourth Turning Prophecy" to somebody unfamiliar with this sort of stuff and see them gasp (admittedly, getting them to then read the whole book is a bit of trial considering that it's basically an airport book and the first half to two thirds of the book is filled with pablum).
Quote:The only way for the 2008 era to be preserved would be if events happen soon along lines that show continuity with the post 2008 period.
Another financial crisis? Still a possibility.