ACA Repeal/Replace: Progressives Face Moral Dilemma

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-21-2017, 04:58 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

I Wrote:My Whig arrow of progress does reasonably well for western civilization during the transition from the Agricultural Age pattern to the Information Age.

Perhaps but there was no clear arrow of progress during the agricultural ages much less during a hunter gatherer eons.  In short given the length of recorded history and that much of it lacks this arrow of progress it is reasonable to assume that this arrow is in fact an anomaly rather than the norm.

(03-21-2017, 04:58 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

I Wrote:Where would the transition point be?  Start with the two nukes at the end of World War II.  Look at the computers and networks that started in the 1950s and have since gone hog wild.  Any pattern that might be fond based on history before that point might be taken with a grain of salt.  One must look for new patterns as well as trying to apply old ones.

Hypothesis.  The four stroke S&H cycle?  Caput.  Gone.  The 1960s awakening was as much like a crisis as an awakening.  The four stroke spiral drove whiggish progress nicely until then, with major big deal crisis wars resulting in major transformations in the culture.  Given nukes, will we see major big deal crisis wars on a regular basis anymore?  We might disagree on what to call the recent pattern of alternating power in the US.  False Regeneracy?  Micro-turning?  Whatever we call it, we might not get the much desired and expected regeneracy and crisis transformation.  The physical analogy might no longer be an ascending spiral.  It might be a pendulum swinging between red and blue.

Interesting.  But I think the problem here is you're looking for a whiggish progress arrow which itself is an anomaly.  I do not believe that the generational cycle has been broken.  Granted the Boomers did break many things but I doubt they could break that.  I think that the notion that a crisis must be resolved in a major war is caput.  With the power to destroy all life on the planet, war becomes much more expensive.  And that of course assumes we keep those weapons.  For which we have no reason to expect we wouldn't.

Rather than a pendulum I think what we are witnessing is the Mega-Unraveling coming to its fruition.  Remember the Glorious Revolution did not have a major war either, and it was over all mostly political.  But it set the stage for the Enlightenment and a big huge crisis in France, that the likes of Eric tend to ignore when they bring criticism of my mega-saeculum theory.

As I see it, the transition from Agricultural Age to Industrial was driven primarily by technology, but the technology also made it possible for the Enlightenment values to take hold.  The technology was going to make industry more important.  The influence of the hereditary military - land owning class had to be minimized.  The new capitalist ruling class used the promise of democracy and human rights as a lever to get the nobility out of power.

Thus, the Whiggish 'arrow of progress' might have been said to come into existence with the Enlightenment and the technology shifts taking place at the same time.  I'd not expect you to find the Whiggish 'arrow of progress' in Agricultural or Hunter Gatherer cultures to speak of.  To me, this is an example of patterns that hold in one wave of civilization not being applicable or relevant in others.

Will the arrow continue to be relevant in the hypothetical Information Age?  Technology hasn't stopped changing, but there is no longer much of a need in much of the world to out autocratic tyrants.  The push for human rights and equality isn't complete either, though it isn't as pressing as it was in the times and places of slaves, dictators and kings.  

The capitalist elite has found a pattern of government that gives them a decent strangle hold on power.  Do they need to make promises of democracy and human rights in order to change how Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue work?  As the Industrial Age came in, the capitalists used Enlightenment philosophy to enlist the working classes and fight the nobility, but if the nobility and tyrants are gone, why would the capitalists care about human rights and equality any more?  The Capitalists are now the sole dominant ruling class in much of the world.  They've got a scheme that's working.  I don't expect them to push for further extension of the Enlightenment ideals and values.

Thus, my guess is that the arrow's force won't be a strong as it was, but the Enlightenment ideas are still relevant.  The Whig arrow might not be totally spent.

As I said previously, I use the mood of the country as a marker rather than generation boundaries.  If one is asking whether the four stroke pattern is holding, the validity of the generation boundaries becomes questionable.  From my perspective, Carter's National Malaise opens a clear unraveling tone.  If we are still in an unravelling, this has been a long unravelling.  Perhaps a mega-unravelling?  Perhaps a pendulum?  '

At any rate, I'll express more faith in clear regeneracies, true crisis transformation and 1Ts when they start happening.  The false regeneracies / micro turnings keep on coming.  They've gone on long enough that I can state a hypothesis that the four stroke pattern might well be broken.  The longer the pendulum swings, the more assertive I'll get in suggesting we have a swinging pendulum.  The next major question on whether the pendulum is swinging is whether your father can get his act together sufficiently that he won't loose Congress at the mid term elections.  That seems to be the usual result when a president without a true mandate attempts to rule as if he had a true mandate.

Here we'll get into how extreme partisans see what they want to see more than they see reality.  You're seeing Trump as doing fine.  I'm seeing Washington being highly dysfunctional, as the currently dominant party attempts to do significant culture altering stuff.  Too soon to be sure what's happening.