05-12-2017, 03:36 PM
I've been doing a lot of work in this. Is there still any interest here in theory? I don't think we are in a 4T. I think it is another 2T. It comes from a new approach. Up to recently I have been imagining that the generational cycle is a master cycle. The other cycles I study all become "entrained" in the saeculum and you can explain things more or less by using this one cycle with "color commentary" added by the other cycles.
I now think this is not true. I believe that are at least two important cycles of similar length but which operate independently and so are not necessarily in sync all the time. As a result the S&H pattern of alternately 2T and 4T social moments does not always happen. For example S&H say that Heroes oversee 2Ts where they come under attack by rising Prophets. Similarly Prophets serve as guiding "gray champions" in 4T where they inspire rising Heroes.
But the Revolutionary Heroes did not oversee a 2T. They were in charge during the first two decades of the 19th century, a period identified by political scientists and historians as what I call a "political moment" over 1801-1816. This moment was neither a 2T or a 4T. Today we see the same issue. The Boomer generation, who will age out of power by ca. 2025 are overseeing period that simply does not seem to be a 4T. We are 9 years into this social moment, which puts us like 1782, 1869, and 1938 in the last 4Ts. Were any of these years as "un-4t-like" as 2017? I would say no!
Now compare to 1831, 1895, and 1973. Are any of these years as nondescript as to what turning we are in as now? I would say yes!.
The reason I am raising this is that this idea was suggested by the modeling work I have been doing recently.
I now think this is not true. I believe that are at least two important cycles of similar length but which operate independently and so are not necessarily in sync all the time. As a result the S&H pattern of alternately 2T and 4T social moments does not always happen. For example S&H say that Heroes oversee 2Ts where they come under attack by rising Prophets. Similarly Prophets serve as guiding "gray champions" in 4T where they inspire rising Heroes.
But the Revolutionary Heroes did not oversee a 2T. They were in charge during the first two decades of the 19th century, a period identified by political scientists and historians as what I call a "political moment" over 1801-1816. This moment was neither a 2T or a 4T. Today we see the same issue. The Boomer generation, who will age out of power by ca. 2025 are overseeing period that simply does not seem to be a 4T. We are 9 years into this social moment, which puts us like 1782, 1869, and 1938 in the last 4Ts. Were any of these years as "un-4t-like" as 2017? I would say no!
Now compare to 1831, 1895, and 1973. Are any of these years as nondescript as to what turning we are in as now? I would say yes!.
The reason I am raising this is that this idea was suggested by the modeling work I have been doing recently.
