05-15-2017, 01:57 PM
(05-15-2017, 01:44 PM)Emman85 Wrote:(05-15-2017, 05:58 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(05-14-2017, 01:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(05-14-2017, 10:10 AM)David Horn Wrote:(05-13-2017, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Actually, the antiimmigrant sentiment is economic, not social.
I disagree. I think it's both. Some see immigrants as threatening and others as competition. The result is the same though the feelings are not. Xenophobia operates on many levels.
The social prejudice against immigrants is not new; those feelings have always been there. What's new is economic stresses from immigration translating antiimmigrant feelings into actual policy action. That points to a fourth turning. Only Mikebert's desire to preserve his political misconceptions prevents him from seeing that.
You did not address the other ideas presented. Two observers, one on the right and one on the left, have noted the resemblance of modern protests to era of creedal passion, which are 2Ts. If you read Huntington's definition of a creed passion era and S&H's definition of a 2T they are very similar. S&H cited Huntington, so I believe they read him, and probably were influenced by him.
Creedal passion does not automatically mean 2T, Huntington names the American Revolution as a creedal passion period and you'd agree it was a 4T right? Huntington in 1981 did predict a new creedal passion period starting in the 2010s and 2020s, he averages these periods about 60 years apart and lasting about 15 years. This means that in American history 2Ts have accounted for 3 of the 4 creedal passion periods he mentioned in his 1981 book and this period might be the 5th
Economic fallouts tend to occur in both 2T's and 4T's. The difference being that a seismic shift begins in the 2T and reaches a nadir or "hits bottom" during a 4T. The seismic shift from an agricultural to an industrial ecomony occured during the close of the 19th century and culminated in the Great Depression which ushered in the following 4T. During the close of the 20th century the seismic shift from an industrial to an information and services based economy similarly occured, and the malaise from said upheaval should, I would suspect, hit bottom before the close of the first quarter of the 21st century. The election of Trump may or may not have been the trigger point, it is too soon to tell.
Wars fought during 4T's are fought with genuine purpose toward a victorious climax (American Revolution, Civil War, World War II), while those that occur during 2T's tend to be controversial when fought and badly remembered afterwards (Spanish-American War, Vietnam War).
