05-16-2017, 10:31 AM
(05-15-2017, 06:38 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(05-15-2017, 04:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:(05-15-2017, 11:47 AM)Mikebert Wrote: I have so far never encountered a fully-satisfying explanation for why there should be two different kinds of "crisis" turnings or why they should alternate with each other.
Nor have I, but there is some evidence, thin though it is. For the alternating 4T pattern to fit the generations model, where the absence of direct knowledge supports the slide into fatal events, there has to be an institutional element of some sort that bridges the gap then decays. Since institutions are immortal until they are displaced by action (or inaction?), I would look there. Nothing comes to mind though.
I am not following you here.
If the S&H model holds, and there is a multi-saecular pattern that is reliable (let's assume so for now), then there has to be a mechanism that spans saecula. S&H relied on the absence of a generation in the constellation as a necessary attribute to repeating each associated turning, but that mechanism merely predicts a repeat of the last four turning pattern, not the overlay of another longer pattern. You can argue that a multi-generational effect occurs because the events in a "crisis" or an "awakening" are so dramatic that they are imprinted strongly on later generations not born at the time of those turnings, but is that enough to create an oscillating pattern like you're seeking to find? Is it more likely that the effect is actually transmitted through one or more institutions rather than the family or even society in general?
One possible institution is the public school system. It's bureaucratic enough to absorb changes slowly, transmit them effectively and maintain them beyond their sell-by date. I'm not pitching schooling as the institution, but that or something similar may be a source ... or not. Like you, I can't find anything to support that argument other than anecdotal evidence.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.