No more Millennial children

[Kinser79]

(01-19-2018, 09:17 AM)MillennialJim Wrote: FWIW, I think we are going to see some major differences between the first and second halves of the Millennial generation.  I'm also an '82 cohort but I'm very late '82 and strongly identify with the first wave Millennials.  Life, and outlook on life, is completely different than a '99 cohort, though.  I do think the second half of the generation will turn out to be less liberal politically than the first half, especially the men.  

That is a possiblity.  A 99 Cohort would be closer to the cut off line between Millie and Zed.   That being said, men in general tend to be more conservative than women.  In the case of my son he's a white male who is more or less libertarian being raised by more or less civil nationalists.  While I tend to favor Trumpian populism my husband is more traditionally libertarian.

Quote:Also, I agree with you re: the crisis war comment.  It's possible if not probable that we find ourselves in some type of new armed conflict in the next decade, but the scope of that remains unclear to me.  There may eventually be a reckoning with China and/or Russia, for example, or more likely a Cold War-style series of proxy wars.  I suspect it won't happen in Trump's first term despite  a lot of white knuckle moments.

If he's re-elected, all bets are off.

Russia is a spent force.  It will take a minimum of a saeculum for Russia to rise to be a threat to the US unless the US expressly antagonizes them (which is pretty stupid, and thus all the more reason to not elect Dimocrats) and its position has severely degraded to the point that our nuclear arsenal does not deter them.  If anything the Russians would welcome a cold war with the US.  It would prevent rising decadence in their society as the US slowly collapses in the Mega-Crisis.

China is unlikely to be a threat unless and until the Yuan, Gold, or some other currency replaces USD as the main currency of international exchange, and in particular the currency in which oil is traded in.  There are already moves under foot to replace the USD as the currency of international exchange.  It is far better to allow a managed transfer to that new currency than to force a hard break internationally.

Trump will be re-elected in 2020.  The Dims have nobody unless they run Michelle Obama or Oprah in desperation (and one has already alienated a generation of younger voters--my son says of the former first lady "the bitch that ruined lunch"--Oprah would crack under the pressure Trump would put her under--being president is far more difficult than giving everyone in your studio audience a new car).  The GOP majorities will weaken slightly in 2018 but mostly that will be replacing Neo-Con incumbents.  2020 Trumpians will sweep Congress and unless they majorly mess things up will remain in charge until the end of the 4T sometime around 2028 and will likely manage most of the 1T.

In any event I expect Trump to ultimately serve as a Gorbachev type figure which will lead to a Putin like figure in the 1T.  And that really is a bad metaphor as the Russians are on a different mega-saeculum than the West.  While the next saeculum for the US would be a Mega-Crisis, the Russians are in a Mega-Awakening which will be having a 2T in just a few years.