Countdown to a Free America

[Eric the Green]

(04-20-2018, 09:23 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-19-2018, 03:15 PM)Another Xer Wrote: Disunity among Democrats is typically one of the most overhyped narratives of the last many decades.  Policy-wise, there was not much difference between Hillary and Bernie.  Much of the supposed division between the two, I think, was unique to the individuals.  Bernie, an Independent running as an old fashioned liberal and Hillary Clinton, who is a lightning rod for differing opinions.  Replace those names with Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and you get the same minimal policy differences without all the rancor.  

Democrats all pretty much stand for the same things - the difference is the degree to which they want to go and the emphasis on certain things (i.e. is campaign finance reform the OMG #1 issue or is it lower down on the list of priorities).

We'll have to disagree on this.  The first Neoliberal Democrats came through with Carter, but it was Bill Clinton that established that philosophy as the central theme of the party.  It was a tragic mistake, even though it that paid short term gains for Bill.  Once the Dems climbed in bed with Wall Street, and let's be honest here: they did in spades, The two parties became Tweedledum and Tweedledee on economics.  That shifted the focus to social issues ... all of them divisive.  When the division was economic, it was at least theoretically possible to unite along class lines.  Now, that's nearly impossible.  Poorer whites don't trust the Dems, because they are on the side of (insert every group except theirs).  Minorities don't trust Dems who don't tow their line, making the appeal to poorer white impossible.

It's Catch 22.

Although I disagreed with the Clinton-era New Democrat cave-in to the neo-liberals, and said so vociferously, and joined the Green Party then, that didn't mean the two parties became tweedle-dum and tweedle-dee. Clinton still campaigned loudly against trickle-down economics, and at the 2004 convention (I believe) he said "our way works better." So there is a difference. The Democrats and Republicans are still divided along economic philosophy, and the more so as the Clinton era has passed. It may be up to the poorer whites to drop their resentment against other groups, and realize which party has their back. Trump was able to fool some of them. But you can't fool the people all the time. 

The Democratic candidate who can get both wings on board, is a Democrat with a high horoscope score (translate: someone who can appeal to Americans, can communicate and connect with people and articulate well). As far as the presidency is concerned, the quality of the candidate, AS a candidate, IS EVERYTHING. Obama score 19-2. Hillary score 9-11. Kerry score 8-12. Gore score 10-9. Bill Clinton score 21-3. Dukakis score 2-10. 

Trump score, 9-4. McCain score, 15-13. Romney score, 4-10. Bob Dole score, 12-19. George W Bush score, 17-2. George HW Bush score, 14-6. The numbers speak.


Best bests:
Mitch Landrieu, 16-2
Terry McAuliffe, 11-2 or higher
ONLY if Dems nominate one of these two, do the Democrats have a good chance in 2020 if Trump is the candidate.

Runners up:
Sherrod Brown, 19-8 (has rust belt advantage)
Michael Moore, 16-6
Chris Murphy, 9-3
Oprah Winfrey, 10-3
Antonio Villaraigosa, 15-5 (CA Governor candidate, former LA Mayor)
Gavin Newsom, 7-1 (CA Governor candidate, best chance in 2028)

Maybe, but doubtful:
Debbie Stabenow, 8-3
Chuck Schumer, 15-8
Roy Cooper, 10-4
Jason Carter, 10-4 (future prospect)
Tom Vilsack, 15-6
Joe Biden, 13-8
Bernie Sanders, 14-7
Tulsi Gabbard, 11-6
Andrew Cuomo, 11-6
Janet Napolitano, 11-5
Tammy Baldwin, 13-6 (best after 2020)
Richard Blumenthal, 11-6
Doug Jones, 10-5
Tom Steyer, 12-6
Levi Sanders, 10-1 (future prospect)

Lots of buzz, but these candidates have NO chance:
Kamila Harris, 4-14
Eric Garcetti, 7-7
Elizabeth Warren, 8-7
Kirsten Gillibrand, 7-12
Cory Booker, 6-7
Joe Kennedy III, 7-6
Michelle Obama, 6-6
Joe & Julian Castro, 8-13
Tim Kaine, 11-11
Amy Klobuchar, 7-7
Eric Holder, 8-6 (maybe, if Pence runs in 2020)

Want to go show biz? Besides Michael Moore and Oprah, there are a couple of prospects:
Seth Meyers, 20-3
Stephen Colbert, 20-11 (best from 2024 on)

Republicans? Get a load of this group! Besides Trump himself, the only potential candidates I know so far with good scores are those already tarred with the Trump trash.

Ivanka Trump, 16-2
Jared Kushner, 10-4
Steve Bannon, 10-5

Mike Pence, 8-7

Any suggestions, questions? Let me know!
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html