03-21-2019, 08:29 PM
(03-20-2019, 05:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I was one of those who suggested an alternative cycle as well 20 years ago, and later so did Chas '88. Unlike Mike and the posters he quotes, I thought the dates should be put back earlier, not later....
There is a simpler explanation for the civil war anomaly. The spacing between the start of the Revolutionary 4T and the Civil War was 87 years (Lincoln's four score and seven). The spacing between the latter and the 1929 Crash is only 69 years, 18 years shorter, or, about one generation. So, drop a generation and its all good.
But now we are supposedly back to four generations. So we go back to four score and seven. Add 87 years to 1929 and your have a new 4T beginning in 2016, with the election of Donald Trump.
If you look at the length of an entire saeculum dated from the start of one 4T to the start of the next, you get:
1459-1569 = 110 yrs
1569-1675 = 106 yrs
1675-1773 = 98 yrs
1773-1860 = 87 yrs
1860-1929 = 69 yrs (anomaly)
1929-2020 = 91 yrs
In other words a 4T start around now looks perfectly normal in that progression. If you through out the anomaly (which S&H identified as such beforehand) the last three saeculum on this list average 92 years in length with a tight relative standard deviation (rsd) of only 6%. If you use all five non-anomalous values you get and average value of 98 years with a reasonable 10% rsd.
In other words a 4T start in 2020, or even later, is perfectly consistent with S&H saecula (in fact the "expected" start would be in 2027).
The problem is with the turning structure within the saecula. S&H also dated the start of a 3T in 1984. A 4T start in 2020 would make this 3T 36 years long, while a 2027 4T start (consistent with average saeculum length) would give a 43 year 3T. Both of these are far longer than any previous turning.
If were consider that when one draws history turnings, she knows when the saeculum ended. Imagine a future historian who knows that the 4T began with the collapse of the world financial system in 2025 and subsequent limited nuclear war. Knowing this she bracked the millennium saeculum as 1929-2035. She draws the 4T as 1929-1953, from the crash until the end of the New Deal Democratic hegemony. The 1T then runs from 1953 to 1973 (Roe v Wade). The 2T then features the rise of the religious fundamentalism not only in America, but in Iran and elsewhere. The 2T ends in 2001, when religious revival turns to action with 911, and the war on terror. The 3T sees the rise of dictators and authoritarian leaders throughout the Islamic world, in parts of Latin America, and then in America (2016) and elsewhere in the West. This trend leaders to a combustible mix that ignites with the collapse of 2025 which leads to a nuclear exchange. Crisis begins as the war, global warming, and economic chaos create a world-wide crisis that results in 2 billion deaths.
Knowing nothing about the crisis of the 2030's, S&H drew turnings based on the current conditions without considering it, because they did not know this history.
Of course this history hasn't happened yet (and probably won't) but without the context hindsight provides, it is impossible to draw turnings, unless the 4T *acts* like a 4T in that it solves major problems and produces an obvious 1T.