Current anomaly: Five generations alive!

[Eric the Green]

(03-21-2019, 08:29 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(03-20-2019, 05:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I was one of those who suggested an alternative cycle as well 20 years ago, and later so did Chas '88. Unlike Mike and the posters he quotes, I thought the dates should be put back earlier, not later.... 

There is a simpler explanation for the civil war anomaly. The spacing between the start of the Revolutionary 4T and the Civil War was 87 years (Lincoln's four score and seven).

Yes indeed, although of course when he said that line it was 1863, so the spacing was really four score and four, 84 years, as mentioned in T4T as the archetypal length of the cycle, and corresponding to the Uranus Return cycle. Lincoln in his speech was referring to 1776 (not 1773), 87 years before 1863.

Quote: The spacing between the latter and the 1929 Crash is only 69 years, 18 years shorter, or, about one generation. So, drop a generation and its all good.

That's one way to look at it, but I liked Strauss and Howe's designation of 1944 as the crisis climax, so the correspondence of the Revolution's Declaration and the Fort Sumpter declaration of war with the Great Power Crisis could also be seen as the start of world war two at Pearl Harbor.

I thought the anomaly was caused by the abnormal length they gave the Transcendental Generation of 30 years. That's what struck me the first time I looked at their cycle back in 1991. It seemed like they stretched that generation to make Lincoln an idealist (or prophet, as that archetype was later entitled).

Quote:But now we are supposedly back to four generations. So we go back to four score and seven. Add 87 years to 1929 and your have a new 4T beginning in 2016, with the election of Donald Trump.

If you look at the length of an entire saeculum dated from the start of one 4T to the start of the next, you get:
1459-1569 = 110 yrs
1569-1675 = 106 yrs
1675-1773 = 98 yrs
1773-1860 = 87 yrs
1860-1929 = 69 yrs (anomaly)
1929-2020 = 91 yrs

In other words a 4T start around now looks perfectly normal in that progression. If you through out the anomaly (which S&H identified as such beforehand) the last three saeculum on this list average 92 years in length with a tight relative standard deviation (rsd) of only 6%. If you use all five non-anomalous values you get and average value of 98 years with a reasonable 10% rsd.

In other words a 4T start in 2020, or even later, is perfectly consistent with S&H saecula (in fact the "expected" start would be in 2027).

I have designated 2027 as the crisis climax date. So you are seeing the climactic end of the crisis as actually the start.

But if you see that the climactic battles of the civil war in 1863-64 were the end of the crisis, not the start, and similarly with the outbreak of the Revolution, and its end in 1781 at Cornwallis, and the same with D-Day in 1944, then 2027 makes sense as the coming climax, in an 80 to 84-year modern saeculum.

And remember, modern saecula hurricanes are faster and sharper because change is faster and the storm carries more water (more people).

Remember too that the specifically American saeculum has always been 84 years (or in later cycles, maybe a bit less), because America starts with Jamestown, which was a real crisis because it was a struggle to establish, with many deaths. That was 1607-08. 84 years later was 1691-92 at the outbreak of King William's War after the Glorious Revolution in 1688, the previous 4T to the Revolution that established British Parliamentary Rule under William of Orange. 84 years more brings us to 1775-76.

Quote:The problem is with the turning structure within the saecula. S&H also dated the start of a 3T in 1984. A 4T start in 2020 would make this 3T 36 years long, while a 2027 4T start (consistent with average saeculum length) would give a 43 year 3T. Both of these are far longer than any previous turning.

If were consider that when one draws history turnings, she knows when the saeculum ended.  Imagine a future historian who knows that the 4T began with the collapse of the world financial system in 2025 and subsequent limited nuclear war. Knowing this she bracked the millennium saeculum as 1929-2035. She draws the 4T as 1929-1953, from the crash until the end of the New Deal Democratic hegemony. The 1T then runs from 1953 to 1973 (Roe v Wade). The 2T then features the rise of the religious fundamentalism not only in America, but in Iran and elsewhere. The 2T ends in 2001, when religious revival turns to action with 911, and the war on terror. The 3T sees the rise of dictators and authoritarian leaders throughout the Islamic world, in parts of Latin America, and then in America (2016) and elsewhere in the West. This trend leaders to a combustible mix that ignites with the collapse of 2025 which leads to a nuclear exchange. Crisis begins as the war, global warming, and economic chaos create a world-wide crisis that results in 2 billion deaths.

Knowing nothing about the crisis of the 2030's, S&H drew turnings based on the current conditions without considering it, because they did not know this history.

Of course this history hasn't happened yet (and probably won't) but without the context hindsight provides, it is impossible to draw turnings, unless the 4T *acts* like a 4T in that it solves major problems and produces an obvious 1T.

Patience, my man. Trump just shows that the Crisis that began in 2008 is not over, but is still churning away as we expected. Red and Blue are becoming more and more polarized, just as I predicted according to the double rhythm. Now the Trumpsters are so fanatic that they actually want him to be dictator for life. They are the new Dixie.

Frequently, problems are not solved until the end of the Crisis. The New Deal looked like an anomaly, because FDR was elected and worked on solving the crisis right away. That was great, but as many have noted, he did not really solve the Depression. Only World War Two did that. So, even then, the "solution" came late in the crisis. This time, Obama came along, but was even less effective than FDR because of the divided nation, although his stimulus eventually has worked. This time, the Crisis that began in 2008 will ALSO be solved at the end of the crisis in the mid-2020s. Bank on it! It's in the stars. It's when "the stars will align." And they definitely will.

You and David K have been waiting for another FDR in this crisis. No-one should have expected an FDR to come along in a decade that is 1850s redux. Instead we got Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce and Buchanan. Divided nations can't elect an FDR without a civil conflict of some kind. So it goes. We may yet get a Lincoln.