Current anomaly: Five generations alive!

[Eric the Green]

(03-21-2019, 07:44 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(03-20-2019, 03:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(03-20-2019, 11:28 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(03-19-2019, 09:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-18-2019, 01:00 PM)jleagans Wrote: There are always five generations alive, this isn't an anomaly.  The archetype that is being born is the oldest archetype alive, right now our artists are dying and being born.

When turnings were longer and life expectancy shorter, that was not really true.  Yes, have always been a few superannuated people, but not enough to count as a generation … until now.

Yes, but that was 200 years ago. The problem is the missing Civil War civic generation. Obviously for the theory to have even facial plausibility there has to have been this generation. This was pointed out at the T4T site nearly 20 years ago, and several posters came up with alternate turnings that reflected this. Dave Krein posited a 4T ending at the same time as did Reconstruction in 1877. This would leave a 1T featuring the boom to 1881, and then the period of oscillating Republican-Democratic administrations of the 1880's and early 1890's with the end coming at Panic of 1893. David McGuiness argued for a 2T beginning with the Columbian Exposition in 1893 and ending with the Titanic disaster that contained the Populist and Progressive movements and the rise of the Social Gospel and German higher criticism and the reactionary response in Fundamentalism and the Pentecostal movement. This makes the 3T 1912-1929.

This gives the set of Artists, Prophets, Nomads and Civic present for the last 4T born in 1857-1874, 1875-1889, 1890-1908, and 1909-1924. This makes the youngest Artists about 72 at the end of the 4T, compared 77 for Artists today.  With dating that doesn't skip an entire generation, last cycle's artists are a lot younger and plenty of them were still around during the last 4T.

-- ok but what would the dates 4 the Civics be in the Civil War cycle? (pre 1857)

The Civics would be born 1841-1856 or thereabouts. The Nomads before them 1822-1840. Abd before then as S&H have them. So the oldest Civics would be 19 at the start of the 4T while the youngest Artists would be 69 at the start of the 4T. 

So you can see, in no way did the Civil War come "early". The Artists were *already* mostly gone in 1860 and the oldest Civics were the same age that the oldest GIs were in 1928 and the oldest Millennials were in 2001. At the end of the 4T the oldest Gilded were the same the oldest Lost were in 1945 and the oldest Xers were in 2016.

In other words, generationally the 4T would be projected to have run over 2001-2016 or thereabouts. When we came up with this idea, we all thought 911 was the start of the 4T and we were right on schedule.

But now its 2019, the 4T is supposed to be over or just about over, but my sense is it hasn't even started to rock and roll. 

And if that's it, then it wasn't much of a 4T--much milder and amorphous when compared the three American 4Ts. This is why, I think, many are trying to compare this crisis with the Glorious, because that one was also undramatic.

Ha ha. I'd say one of the great world wars in European and American history was pretty dramatic. King William's War was one of the most dramatic and consequential times in history. From it descend almost all the governments of the developed world today.

We didn't "all" think 9-11 was the start of a Crisis. Polls here have consistently shown that the majority have always agreed with the 2008 date. S&H did too; Strauss compared 9-11 correctly to the Wall Street bombing of 1919. No, 2008 the Great Recession was the successor to the crash of 1929; that remains the obvious start of the current 4T. So of course it isn't "over." It has just begun to rock and roll, and with Trump, and the real American nation's response to this fake travesty, and the push for renewed progress by an energized opposition led by Bernie, is the developing regeneracy.


The GI civics started being born in 1901, just as S&H said. They were 28 in 1929. So an equivalent birthday for the oldest civil war civics should be 28 years before 1850, when the civil war crisis actually began. That would be 1822, the start of the Gilded Generation.

I consider them civic-nomad hybrids, because of the lag caused by agricultural-age Dixie's being half the country. But Shelby Foote, the greatest civil war historian, made it quite clear that civil war soldiers had civic and moral virtues instilled in them by their idealist parents in that Victorian era. They were not at all like the cynical individualistic Xers of today. They were dedicated to their duties as citizens. They were just as brave and heroic as the GIs Greatest Generation in WWII. And it should be noted that most of the actual General Infantry in WWII were late wavers.

My great-grandfather Meece, born in 1842, was one of these heroic civil war soldiers. My father, a typical civic born in 1915, was by contrast a CO pacifist and didn't go fight the war. Instead, he was a co-founder of the Pacifica Radio Network, the first public broadcaster. Today it's broadcasts include Amy Goodman's radio/TV show entitled Democracy Now.