08-11-2019, 11:59 AM
(08-11-2019, 11:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:(08-11-2019, 10:54 AM)Ghost Wrote:(08-11-2019, 09:12 AM)Anthony Wrote: No way was 2008 the start of any Crisis. Unemployment only got up to 10.2% (in October 2019) - while in November and December of 1982 it reached 10.8%.
Yet 9/11 never really changed anything: Not only didn't the Culture Wars not diffuse, they actually intensified - Lawrence v. Texas, 2003, Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, 2018.
So what I have chosen to do is to do something unique and declare 9/11 a "half-catalyst" that moved us into a place between a 3T and 4T - where we will remain until the 2020 election, when a Super Civil War Anomaly (and a Second Civil War itself) will break out.
What do you think are the "bridge zones" between the turnings? In my opinion, they go like this:
4T to 1T: 1942-1945 (starts with Stalingrad and ends with the end of WWII)
1T to 2T: 1960-1965 (starts with the introduction of the birth control pill and ends with the start of America's involvement in Vietnam)
2T to 3T: 1978-1984 (starts with Carter's popularity slightly slipping and ends with Reagan's 1984 landslide victory)
3T to 4T: 2001-2008 (starts with 9/11 and ends with the 2008 financial crisis)
One common trend I seem to notice is that over time, bridge zones between "turning periods" keep getting bigger.
Bridge between 4T and 1T is 3 years long.
Bridge between 1T and 2T is 5 years long.
Bridge between 2T and 3T is 6 years long.
Bridge between 3T and 4T is 7 years long.
I really do not know if 2T/3T bridge is correct and if it isn't, please let me know.
4T/1T-- I would use different years with 1944 as the death blows to Nazi Germany (D-Day, fall of central Italy to the Allies, July 20 plot, King Michael's coup in Romania, Soviet advances to Belgrade, Budapest, and Warsaw, collapse of the Bulge) to 1948 (Czechoslovak coup, Berlin Airlift) deciding what Europe would mostly be like from 1948 to 1989. I will have to recognize that the Republic of China went from viable to doomed in 1948 as the result of one battle. That year the major war criminals convicted in the Tokyo trials are executed. I am going to call the collapse of Communist rule in central and Balkan Europe and the USSR as the definitive event of the 3T.
What are your thoughts about the other years I used (1960, 1965, 1978, 1984, 2001, 2008)?