"Climax" year of each turning

[Kinser79]

(05-19-2020, 01:25 PM)Isoko Wrote: Kinser,

I concur with what you are saying about socialism. Even though Thatcher did have a point with that, due to the Tories pretty much gutting the entire industrial sector, it actually ended up leading to more socialism down the road with Thatcher's conservatives actually encouraging all of those unemployed factory workers and coal miners onto state benefits in order to off set any major drag down to poverty levels. Tony Blair helped expand on this so really capitalism itself led to more socialism here down the road....

Perhaps. I'm not going to claim to have detailed information about British Political Economy of the time period. I honestly don't I'm going off of gut impressions of what I've read here and there on this case. Mostly because as an American I focus on America (and pretty much thing the rest of the world can go to hell--maybe some day I'll tell you about the five hour argument I had with my grandmother over isolationism and how FDR was the Devil). That being said, it still doesn't work that well. Having spoken to ex-pats from Britain their NHS which does cover everyone does so relatively poorly with long wait times for vital medical procedures. The same is true for the Canadian system. The Europeans might be slightly better at other entitlement programs but personally I'd favor abolishing all of those unless the states want to run it.

I'd much prefer that the federal government spend its time trying to assist the economy to create and protect well paying jobs so people can work and do for themselves productively.

Quote:As for Russia being the new policeman, I agree right now that despite Putin and the government wanting to make Russian great again, the Russian youth are still in love with the West and obsessed

Some are. Some aren't. I've been to Russia many times. I love the country and speak the language. Lets just say once you leave Moskva and Leningrad (I refuse to call it St. Petersburg, and the Oblast is still called Leningrad Oblast) the gopniks are less concerned with the west and more concerned with semichki, squatting and drinking kvass. They are in short doing their own thing apart from the West like Russians have pretty much always done. The obsession with the West has been historically and is today a disease of the elite and those who wish they were the elite.

Quote: about getting the democracy working and the economy sorted out. So I think after Putin, the days of Russian adventurism are going to come to a standstill.

Russia will be entering the core of its 2T in a few years, and then it will have its 3T. Their last 4T lasting from 1982ish to 2001ish. Naturally external adventurism will abate some, but most Russians consider Belarus and Ukraine to be part of their country. It is almost as if Texas and California decided to break away (and succeeded) and they kinda want them back. Belarus might fold back into Russia and is very close to Russia regardless. Ukraine is a bit more dynamic.

Quote: But if Europe is on the verge of turning Islamic

Once the welfare states in Europe fail the Muslims will flee. They are essentially living on state hand outs. Much like many immigrants in the US are. It is one of the reasons why I don't think Europe will turn Islamic unless three or four generations pass before the collapse of the EU and the Welfare states. I don't think that will happen. The Idenitarian Right in Europe will either destroy the welfare states to be rid of what they consider to be (and are) parasites or those welfare states will collapse from their own internal contradictions.

Quote:or a huge major interstate war breaks out there, Russia will step in and take over America's role because of the fear of another German invasion.

Germany has a fourth rate army so an invasion by them could probably be swatted off by a couple dozen babushki with their rolling pins. Indeed one of the reasons why Germany in particular is pushing for "greater integration" and an EU army is so they can keep up on their welfare statism while forcing Poland, Hungry and etc to pay the military burden.

Personally I think the US would be better off scrapping NATO and if the Russians want to be Europe's policeman then let them, though I doubt they have the strength to. Mind you as I said before I focus on America and think the rest of the world can pretty much rot in a cess pit filled with its own effluence for all I care.

Quote:Nothing anytime soon of course but down the pipeline, yes...

I doubt that. It would require Germany to completely rebuild their military forces, an expense that they can't afford if they plan on importing millions of "New Germans" to suck up the welfare Euros, rape German women, and create havoc in the streets--Er I mean culturally enrich Germany.

Quote:Good to hear America's millennials are not all left wing. I thought like 90 percent of them were in love with the whole AOC crowd. But you have to confess, the majority of them are liberal and not at all conservative in terms of social values. Maybe on economics thinks differ but still.

I would suggest taking whatever the likes of CNN, MSNBC, and sundry say with a grain of salt. The left wing media wants to believe that most Millies are on board with socialism and AOC and her idiocy and etc. And quite a lot are, and they are extremely loud about it. However, most would just like to get married and get a house, and maybe a car and a couple kids would be nice too.

Like Russia, America is very different once you get away from New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

Quote:Just how many of them support Trumpian values I have no idea but I suspect it's not a huge group. 

Not many if you frame it around Trump. Frame it around nationalism and economic security and well you

Quote:Kinser, I have a question. With your great crisis saeculum, are you saying that this will be 80 years of continued Western decline? I was expecting the West to end rather quickly like the former Communist bloc but I presume you are looking at a more longer term decline lasting at least four generations?

I laid out my theory in greater detail in the thread called "Wheels within Wheels"

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-712.html

Suffice it to say that yes I do believe that the next saeculum will be as I put it:

myself in Wheels within wheels Wrote:Each Mega-Saeculum is composed of four distinct parts. These parts are of course saecula and they follow a distinct pattern.

A Mega-Resolution/Exposition (or a first turning--commonly called a High amongst students of S&H) [It closes out the previous Mega-Saeculum and sets up the following Mega-Saeculum]

A Mega-Awakening (or a second turning) [in a traditional plot timeline as you'd learn about in school this can be likened to rising action or rather the start of the rising action--the ideas of the mega-saeculum are usually birthed in this part]

A Mega-Unraveling (or third turning) [A stasis point among two or more main ideas that are relevant to the mega-saeculum for example parliamentarian-ism verses divine right of kings]

A Mega-Crisis (or fourth turning) [a period of rapidly rising action until a climax point is hit and then rapidly falling action to the next Mega-Resolution/Exposition]

As such I believe that the coming saeculum will be one of one crisis leading to the next until either war or a cascading systems failure results in the destruction of the current order. The last time this happened was during the Revolutionary/Napoleonic Saeculum, wherein Feudalism was destroyed in Europe and in the Americas the colonies split off from Europe entirely with the exception of Canada (which is probably due to being both sparsely populated and remote at the time). It should be noted that I include Latin America doing this around 1820 as well as the US. It seems that Latin America is perhaps behind the US an entire turning but more or less on the same trajectory.

Given the close assiotations between the United States and Ancient Rome I expect this to play out like a modern version of the Crisis of the Third Century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_...rd_Century

I do not rule out a rapid collapse of the West however, but I do not think it likely. The Eastern Bloc was imposed by the Soviet Union on Eastern Europe and the USSR itself collapsed due to its own internal contradictions. Also I consider the Russian "Soviet Saeculum" (1922-2001) to be a Mega-1T. Prior to then Russia was a pre-industrial society and had only recently abolished serfdom.

Quote:Also in your next 4T predictions, I hope you didn't put the lazy option of the U.S Vs China because compared to today, honestly, I think later on this century China is going to start to decline and replaced by new powers. Not sure who yet but I've never believed China to be a long term superpower and there are new upcoming powers on the horizon.

I believe that the People's Republic of China is an existential threat to the United States for at least the remainder of this turning (which is due to end according to my calculations between 2024-2030 [I usually date the 4T start in 2006 due to Katrina but others disagree with me]). They are a trade threat certainly and they are attempting to flex their military muscle but I also think that they will start a period of decline soon. I doubt they will reach the levels of degradation that they experienced under the late Qing dynasty but they are due to start their Mega-2T soon and this will eventually lead to the removal of the CCP from power. Also given the One Child Policy their population will begin aging rapidly before they can get their birth rates back up to replacement levels which is one of the reasons for the their decline during their Mega-2T.

If I had to guess at possible super powers I'd say India, though they are not likely to be hostile to the Anglosphere, they could be hostile to other powers regionally and globally. And it wouldn't be the first time India was a superpower either. Both India and China have been superpowers in their own rights at least a couple times. Of course they also have traditionally also had the largest populations, particularly in pre-industrial history.