06-08-2020, 09:07 AM
(06-07-2020, 10:47 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: We should consider that there may be cusps/transition periods between turnings. A handful of years in which the mood of previous turning is gradually fading, while there are subtle hints of a new turning.
In USA, such was the case with the last 2T/3T transition.
Very true, but even more pronounced in this transition. Let's be honest, it's been one thing after another for nearly 2 decades. Start with 9/11-- certainly far too preseasonal to trigger a transition, but none the less very dramatic. Follow that with GWBs abandonment of the effort to corner al Qaeda in Afghanistan and starting an idiotic war in Iraq instead. Follow that with Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession and the long climb out of that hole, to the mess we created by hiring a reality TV host to run the country. We were already tired long before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived on the scene.
Somewhere in the middle of those events, we will be able to pick a point in time that was the beginning of the 4T. 2008 is the most likely choice, with the Great Recession being the trigger, but that may not prove to be the case in retrospect. We achieved the Chinese curse of living in interesting times. How interesting is still TBD. We're still on the way to an unknown end of this 4T.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.