I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-26-2020, 02:57 PM)Mikebert Wrote: You seem to be implying that the pandemic is going make lots of change happen quickly. Change takes time. Look at past 4Ts.

The economy collapsed in 1929. Pre-slump unemployment was not re-established until 1942, by which time we were embroiled in a massive war. That finally was resolved four years later. Total time needed to deal with the crash 17 years.

South Carolina seceded from the union in 1860. A war began, the Confederacy was defeated. What the crisis resolved? No! We then enacted Reconstruction that lasted until 1877. We then threw in the towel. After 17 years we still couldn't resolve the crisis, but we destroyed the Southern elites, so we managed to resolve the political stress.

The American colonies revolted against the central government. After 6 years the battle was won, but was the problem solved? No! We needed another 8 years to establish a viable successor state. This crisis took 14 years to resolve.

We have had at least three triggers in the last couple of decades. In the aftermath of 911 we engaged in two interventions in which we made far less than the minimal required effort to prevail. As a result both failed. That is a 3T response.

In the aftermath of the 2008 panic, Democrats enacted under-powered interventions which ultimately failed. Failure is shown by the results of the 2010 election. This too is a 3T response.

Now we face the crisis of the pandemic. Again, the response has been under-powered, another 3T response.  What the Biden administration does, assuming they win this fall, may or may not be another 3T response. We will see.

Even if they opt to take this thing seriously, that doesn't mean they will choose to address the core issue of this 4T, which is NOT the pandemic. And even if they do address it, past experience shows it takes 14-17 years to resolve these things.

So IF we actually resolve the issues (i.e. actually have a 4T) it will take until the mid-2030's to do so, at the earliest. If the *generational* 4T is nearly over then there is zero probability that we will have something that looks like a 4t on the timetable S&H put forth. We will still have one, but it will fall into some other turning.

In the Industrial Age, the crisis was almost inevitably a crisis war.  This took about four years to resolve.  The time to remobilize, learn how to use the weapons of the time, and drive the other side back, took that long.  After that came the never again conferences and a reversion to building infrastructure and reinforcing the lessons learned in the crisis.

In the Information Age, with the major powers having nukes, with proxy war making Neo Colonialism hard to work, there are very few crisis war triggers.  The common four years to solve that problem has gone away.

While it may take four years to win a crisis war, to develop a vaccine takes about a year.  At that point there are enough folks wanting to get rid of the old thinking and settle down into the high mentality.  Another greater trigger is possible, but I don’t see people sitting around waiting for it.  They will want to get back to something like ‘normal’ again.  There are not enough fans of S&H to think a good and proper crisis trigger is due to appear.

Oh, the government will be strong and competent enough for a while.  People will be less likely to ignore the science or get into racism for a while.  Someone will appoint themselves guardian of the culture and try to make sure we never again sweep things like that under the rug.

But I don’t see the length of the crisis set in the Industrial Age stone.  Different age.  The patterns shift.  Don’t count on every lesson learned from the old days as repeating.