I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-27-2020, 01:22 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(06-26-2020, 05:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: While it may take four years to win a crisis war, to develop a vaccine takes about a year.  At that point there are enough folks wanting to get rid of the old thinking and settle down into the high mentality.  Another greater trigger is possible, but I don’t see people sitting around waiting for it.  They will want to get back to something like ‘normal’ again. 

You seem to have a rather romantic view of these things. You know the problems we face: mperial over extension, high levels of economic inequality, climate change, extreme political polarization, the appearance of extreme cultural movements on both the right and left that could form the basis for a modern version of the religious wars, etc.

These are just going to go away because people "get rid of the old thinking and settle down into the high mentality."?

A crisis addresses the most basic problems the people perceive needing to be fixed.  If you perceive problems that the bulk of the people don’t, you are apt to be disappointed by the results of the crisis.  Notably, you are correctly concerned about the division of wealth, but is that at the center of any of the current crisis issues?  I don’t, alas, see it.  Thus, it is not apt to be addressed.

There is also a difference between a catalyst and a trigger.  The typical crisis will have several catalyst illuminating the primary issues.  There is generally only one trigger, something which makes the following regeneracy inevitable, which gives the weight of resolve to the progressive faction.  Last time around, I could argue for two triggers, the stock market crash and Pearl Harbor, but generally there is one.

September 11 was an unusual case.  It could have been a trigger.  It initially shifted significantly the national mood.  However, a conservative administration was in charge.  With hindsight, whatever they cooked up would not have aimed at a progressive regeneracy.  Whatever they tried would have failed.  

Over in the Generational Dynamics thread I proposed three types of causes for war.  There are noble sounding idealistic reasons.  In this case, we were taking away the WMDs or expanding democracy.  There are elite economic racket reasons, someone was out to make a profit.  This would make Iraq a war for oil.  This being the GD thread, you also have to address the xenophobic reasons.  The people had different skin pigmentation, didn’t like each other, and therefore the armed forces coerced the leaders into waging a war.  Regardless, none of these forced resolution of the red blue divide.  The war was not a trigger.  It might have made us war adverse, reluctant to solve problems by putting boots on the ground.  This is one role of crisis wars in shaping the following turnings, but that is it.

COVID and Black Lives Matter potentially could be triggers.  The virus could defeat the red willingness to ignore the science, to seek such a small government that problems cannot be solved.  This is close enough to global warming and the environment, that if the Democrats get in one could anticipate those issues too being addressed.  Black Lives Matter addresses police racist violence.

The problem is that even if the Democrats take the senate, they would have to have 60 votes to bring a bill to a vote.  The Republicans recently have just gone into obstructionist mode and blocked everything.  Will they try to block police reform and scientific COVID response?  Will the country’s mood shake them into responsible government?  Will the senate Democrats change the rules so debate can be closed by a simple majority?  The stalemate of the unravelling endless debates could conceivably be extended.  If the senate Republicans do remain obstructionist, will the problems have to be addressed at the state and local level? Even if Trump is put on the sidelines, will Republicans desperate for his base's votes still continue the obstructionism?

But at any rate, I have not seen much in the way of crisis level urgency spreading to other issues.  Until I do see it, I don’t see it as my job to anticipate it.  When the people have solved what they care about, I anticipate they will shift to a high mentality.  They will leave some issues unresolved.  Other issues will have to wait for another time.