07-19-2020, 01:34 PM
(07-15-2020, 05:58 PM)and every 4.8 years over 1952-1980Marc Lamb Wrote:(06-30-2020, 02:59 PM)Mikebert Wrote: If Dems drop the ball then 2020 will just be another potential trigger that didn't trigger anything. The shit will keep hitting the fan...
Just a few observations here:
1. Gosh, that 18-year cycle keeps getting longer and longer!
2. What? We be 4T only when a "grey champion" from the Democrat Party suddenly appears? Guess that cycle really is "political."
3. Cheer up. 2020 may turn like 1928, and the Democrat Party can then finally wipe those evil Republicans off the face of the map. lol
That 18 year cycle (and 2001 4T start) was partially invalidated by the 2006 election (and ruled out by the 2008 election), when it became clear that 2000 was not a critical election. And the idea that turnings today are 20 years long (and the 2008 was a critical election) was partially invalidated by the 2014 election and ruled out by 2016). It is looking like Biden will win this fall, which will rule out 2016 as a critical election.
Critical elections are usually given as 1800, 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, and 1980. The last five of these elections occurred in a social moment turning, whereas 1800 is an exception. I would suggest that the First Continental Congress also served as a critical election in that representatives of the colonies voted to set America on the path to change the faction in control of the government, in which case we have 7 critical elections, with six of them falling into a social moment turning, which has about a 6% probability of happening by chance, making it the best political indicator of the presence of a social moment turning (in this case a 4T) at that time.
If Trump loses then 2020 becomes the next critical election candidate. Right now I see no reason to believe Republicans won't win in 2022. If that happens and Biden chooses not to run it is possible Democrats could lose in 2024. Even if Democrats win in 2024 they are not likely to win in 2028 if they are still losing congressional elections like Clinton and Obama did. And that rules out 2020. There was 48 years between the 1932 and 1980 critical elections. A critical election 2028 or 2032 would not be out of line. And this would put the earliest date for the end a 4T in the 2030's or later, which stretches out the saeculum so long as to disprove the theory, IMO.
So for me 2022 is the fish or cut bait moment for the theory. S&H forecast a crisis turning that would create structural changed. George W Bush had a group of changes he wanted to make in foreign political and in the political outreach for the GOP. Obama had a number of policy changes around health care and climate change he wished to pursue. Trump ran on structural changes wrt to foreign policy, immigration and trade. Anyone of these agenda could have been the core about a 4T was built. What was stopping them was politics. The S&H 4T theory that says, given the proper constellation of "generations" a crisis catalyst triggers the structural change. Each of these three presidents had a catalyst, 911, the 2008 panic, the 2020 pandemic.
They all failed to use it to produce the structural change which would given them an electoral edge afterward. We kept on trading off between the parties with presidential or Congressional turnovers every 4 years in average over 2000-2020 (same rate as the two decades before). Compare these to every 6.7 and 10 years on average over the 4T-containing periods 1932-1952 and 1860-1800, respectively. This has been no 4T yet, at least politically.