I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-24-2020, 06:20 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally!

Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted.

Also I have always been of the opinion that the 4T involves a struggle between opposing elite factions with the winner of that struggle then engaging in the post-regeneracy correction of problems.

However this resolution has come in the form of "political revolution" (in the form of periodic critical elections) more often a "hot" war. Besides the revolution of 1776, we had "Revolution of 1800", election of 1828, 1860 (this one did lead to a civil war), 1896, 1932, and the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980.

But this supposed 4T that should have happened over the last two decades hasn't gelled.  It's not like the opportunity did not arise. We have had critical election candidates in 2000, 2008, 2016, and now, likley, 2020. And they keep going belly up. We have have plenty of events of similar magnitude to past 4T catalysts: 911, Panic of 2008, and now the worst pandemic in a century, all packed into a single turning-length period, that even matches up with the generational forecast, but no 4T.  According to S&H turnings are caused by generational constellations. So when the first such constellation arrived after they published their theory, it did not cause a turning change, we remained in a 3T-type period.

That is as close to an experimental test as it gets in this business and it came up negative.

At one level it is a struggle of elites mostly about finance. For example, the American Civil War was about the slave owning agricultural elites and the budding robber barons fighting over political control. At another level it is an argument over ideals. Will there be emancipation? You cannot assume a single motivation for everybody.

Another big factor is nukes. In the Industrial Age you could count on a crisis war traumatizing the population such that they do not repeat such a war until the last one is forgotten in living minds. Since, cultures avoid such wars full time. We are permanently traumatized. Without a crisis war being so common as to be nigh on inevitable, triggers become more rare, rare enough that you can’t count on one coming along during the crisis generation alignment.

Clearly, you have more political revolutions and critical elections that S&H proposed crises. Not all of them can be crises. In particular, September 11 occurred a little early, and the conservatives were in charge. You aren’t going to get a transfer to the new values while the policies are based on the old values. I also see Obama as not pushing. He dd not press revenge against Wall Street, and while he got Obamacare he lost the congressional majority in doing so and did not push further. His actions were to a great extent undone by his successor. While the events leading into his term were significant, they did not insist on action, and Obama was more concerned with becoming a good first black president than pressing an agenda for radical change.

This is why I was wondering what happened when a crisis generation configuration went by without a trigger that demanded immediate action. Until COVID 19 came along, that is what seemed to be happening. No trigger. No regeneracy. No crisis heart. You saw a continuing 3T like period with two sets of values remain locked against each other.

Now? I think we have seen a genuine old fashion trigger though it does not point to an inevitable crisis war. If you do not solve it, you get death. Beyond that, the people are rejecting violent racist policing. The old values have become clearly unacceptable, so you have red people turning blue.

Thus, I think you came to your conclusion a little soon. See if Biden tries to implement the full blue agenda, the red balk, and the red values can stage a comeback. See if the reds have a real candidate in 2024 backing the old values still. If the old Republican base is a real electoral threat, we will have a failed 4T and a continued 3T mentality. I suspect it will not happen.