07-25-2020, 06:05 PM
(07-24-2020, 09:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Clearly, you have more political revolutions and critical elections that S&H proposed crises. Not all of them can be crises.They aren't. Critical elections occur in social moment turnings, 2Ts as well as 4Ts. Examples the Reagan revolution. Progressive era, and Age of Jackson were all 2T phenomena.
[quote[In particular, September 11 occurred a little early, and the conservatives were in charge.[/quote]
No, given a new generation (Z) started to be born about 4 years earlier, it was right on schedule. Also the last 4T began with the conservatives in charge, as did the one before that, and the one before that.
Quote:You aren’t going to get a transfer to the new values while the policies are based on the old values. I also see Obama as not pushing. He dd not press revenge against Wall Street, and while he got Obamacare he lost the congressional majority in doing so and did not push further. His actions were to a great extent undone by his successor.Yes, that is what happened, but that is NOT what the generation theory SAYs was supposed to happen. That's my point.
[quoteThis is why I was wondering what happened when a crisis generation configuration went by without a trigger that demanded immediate action.[/quote]
What do you mean by no trigger? All three of these catalysts, 911, the 2008 panic and the pandemic all resulted in immediate action. There simply wasn't the different response that was supposed to happen given the generational constellation in the late 1990's.
Quote:Until COVID 19 came along, that is what seemed to be happening. No trigger. No regeneracy. No crisis heart. You saw a continuing 3T like period with two sets of values remain locked against each other.Which is not supposed to happen according to the theory.
Quote:Now? I think we have seen a genuine old fashion trigger though it does not point to an inevitable crisis war.Quote:Crisis war? Have you now starting to buy into John Xenakis's formulation? I agree that something might be happening now, but its far to late to be a 4T trigger, since it has been 36 years since the start of the 4T.
Quote:Thus, I think you came to your conclusion a little soon. See if Biden tries to implement the full blue agenda, the red balk, and the red values can stage a comeback. See if the reds have a real candidate in 2024 backing the old values still. If the old Republican base is a real electoral threat, we will have a failed 4T and a continued 3T mentality. I suspect it will not happen.Not too soon. A trigger now means a 4T start now, which makes the 3T exceed 30 years. You have no idea what the next decade will see. The idea that Biden will win and we can then move on to a 1T in a few years does not pass a plausibility screen.
There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed. In economics there is the fact that profits are no being 100% funneled into stock buybacks and dividends. Capitalism is supposed to work by profits being reinvented into the economy, which grows it. But with the current system capitalist is no deployed to blow up market bubbles. There will be no popping of the bubble as long as the Fed is pumping money into the markets, which is is doing.If Biden does not take steps to collapse the stock market (and I cannot see him doing this) this situation will remain a gun to our head which eventually much trigger hyperinflation, but that could take a decade.
Then there is our empire. We cannot afford it but neither party shows any interest in reign it in. What happens when China decides to call out the US for the paper tiger it is. We cannot even handle a pandemic. I fear hothead might take the war option and will be be crushed. According to Modelski's leadership cycle the Global War phase is to begin around 2025 give or take a five years.
Then there is the high levels of social unrest and high levels of the political stress indicator (which is indicative of evolutionary situations). Many have talked about possible civil war.
Then there is the problem of our eroding democracy and the rises of illiberalism among progressives as well as conservatives.
I'm sure you can think of other things. This is too full a plate to deal with in a single term or even two terms. For Biden to be a true Reconstructive president (which we are supposed to get if they is a 4T) will require three Democratic terms in a row and it would take that long to address all the problems. Yet it seems clear that the Democrats do not have the desire to solve any of these problems and will probably kick the can down the road. The Republicans have no interest either. So we cannot deal with our problems until we have new parties. How long with that take? For the Civil War the Whigs (that's us) collapsed, took on some Democratic factions who had left the party and formed a new party, the Republicans. One possible rearrangement might be for "woke capitalism" to move over the Democrats completing the party realignment begun in 1964, which the Democrats and Republicans completely changing positions.
Supposedly it could go the other way with the Democratic neoliberals going over the the other side, but I can't see that.