07-25-2020, 11:46 PM
I assume this is mikebert's quote:
Unpacking this a bit.
I don't see that there can't be multiple triggers in a 4T, just as there were in the 1850s until one finally set off the civil war, or even in the early 1770s before the Tea Party. This being the cold civil war, we can't expect the necessary unity to bring about the major changes we see in a 4T until the conservative faction is defeated. But the fight is still part of the 4T. Trump's presidency is constant chaos, and thus constant 4T. That seems very clear.
I agree we can't get to a 1T with just one term of Biden bringing back normalcy and curing the pandemic. "There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed."
No future party will want to collapse the stock market; that's not what parties do. If the bubble collapses, it will not be because a political party pops it on purpose.
The empire is not an issue now, but a cold war with China is growing. I agree on 2025 for the next US foreign war danger, and this war could indeed have its early pre-US phases beginning in late 2020. I don't know if it will be a war with China. It may be another Arab-world inferno. But that prediction agrees with what mine has been for decades. Stress, unrest and threats to democracy are certainly growing too. My estimation is that we will begin a progressive era sometime in the 2020s. But this will take more than one Biden term to make happen, or lead to real results.
The two parties are already completely polarized, but Democrats still have moderate factions (I would call them that, rather than neo-liberals). In a 4T things can move fast. This is already happening, so I expect we ain't seen nothing yet. It depends, however, on whether Democrats are smart enough to choose electable candidates for president. They probably aren't going to consult my horoscope scores, so all we can do is hope their intuition and observation is sufficiently mobilized so they can make the right choices, such as Susan Rice rather than Kamala Harris. But other things being equal, we can expect this 4T to heat up and speed up and be done by 2029 as expected. It won't accomplish everything we progressives want. No turning ever does. Things move on, and progress stops and starts between odd-numbered turnings and even-numbered ones.
Quote:Not too soon. A trigger now means a 4T start now, which makes the 3T exceed 30 years. You have no idea what the next decade will see. The idea that Biden will win and we can then move on to a 1T in a few years does not pass a plausibility screen.
There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed. In economics there is the fact that profits are no being 100% funneled into stock buybacks and dividends. Capitalism is supposed to work by profits being reinvented into the economy, which grows it. But with the current system capitalist is no deployed to blow up market bubbles. There will be no popping of the bubble as long as the Fed is pumping money into the markets, which is is doing.If Biden does not take steps to collapse the stock market (and I cannot see him doing this) this situation will remain a gun to our head which eventually much trigger hyperinflation, but that could take a decade.
Then there is our empire. We cannot afford it but neither party shows any interest in reign it in. What happens when China decides to call out the US for the paper tiger it is. We cannot even handle a pandemic. I fear hothead might take the war option and will be be crushed. According to Modelski's leadership cycle the Global War phase is to begin around 2025 give or take a five years.
Then there is the high levels of social unrest and high levels of the political stress indicator (which is indicative of evolutionary situations). Many have talked about possible civil war.
Then there is the problem of our eroding democracy and the rises of illiberalism among progressives as well as conservatives.
I'm sure you can think of other things. This is too full a plate to deal with in a single term or even two terms. For Biden to be a true Reconstructive president (which we are supposed to get if they is a 4T) will require three Democratic terms in a row and it would take that long to address all the problems. Yet it seems clear that the Democrats do not have the desire to solve any of these problems and will probably kick the can down the road. The Republicans have no interest either. So we cannot deal with our problems until we have new parties. How long with that take? For the Civil War the Whigs (that's us) collapsed, took on some Democratic factions who had left the party and formed a new party, the Republicans. One possible rearrangement might be for "woke capitalism" to move over the Democrats completing the party realignment begun in 1964, which the Democrats and Republicans completely changing positions.
Supposedly it could go the other way with the Democratic neoliberals going over the the other side, but I can't see that.
Unpacking this a bit.
I don't see that there can't be multiple triggers in a 4T, just as there were in the 1850s until one finally set off the civil war, or even in the early 1770s before the Tea Party. This being the cold civil war, we can't expect the necessary unity to bring about the major changes we see in a 4T until the conservative faction is defeated. But the fight is still part of the 4T. Trump's presidency is constant chaos, and thus constant 4T. That seems very clear.
I agree we can't get to a 1T with just one term of Biden bringing back normalcy and curing the pandemic. "There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed."
No future party will want to collapse the stock market; that's not what parties do. If the bubble collapses, it will not be because a political party pops it on purpose.
The empire is not an issue now, but a cold war with China is growing. I agree on 2025 for the next US foreign war danger, and this war could indeed have its early pre-US phases beginning in late 2020. I don't know if it will be a war with China. It may be another Arab-world inferno. But that prediction agrees with what mine has been for decades. Stress, unrest and threats to democracy are certainly growing too. My estimation is that we will begin a progressive era sometime in the 2020s. But this will take more than one Biden term to make happen, or lead to real results.
The two parties are already completely polarized, but Democrats still have moderate factions (I would call them that, rather than neo-liberals). In a 4T things can move fast. This is already happening, so I expect we ain't seen nothing yet. It depends, however, on whether Democrats are smart enough to choose electable candidates for president. They probably aren't going to consult my horoscope scores, so all we can do is hope their intuition and observation is sufficiently mobilized so they can make the right choices, such as Susan Rice rather than Kamala Harris. But other things being equal, we can expect this 4T to heat up and speed up and be done by 2029 as expected. It won't accomplish everything we progressives want. No turning ever does. Things move on, and progress stops and starts between odd-numbered turnings and even-numbered ones.