I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-03-2020, 05:19 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

1. What attracted you to S&H theory in the first place?
   
2. What doubts do you have about the theory, with respect to either process or its conclusions?
   
3. What would it take to disabuse you of the theory completely (i.e., the dealbreaker)?
   

1.  It was way back in Clinton 40's time.  I was worried about Waco and Oklahoma City and was starting to get interested in the spiral of violence.  While the spiral faded with the change in the federal rules of engagement, I had picked up the S&H books and started to make sense of the process by which values changed.

2.  I think I covered that recently, so I won't repeat.

3.  If a turning showed no sign of appearing in the real world it would be hard to believe in the theory.  If we don't get a radical shift of values in the current apparent crisis, if we don't build infrastructure while stomping on the old values in the high, if we don't later get a bunch of young people yelling loudly about what they see as flaws in the culture, then the theory would be broken.  If you stop getting anything like the four turning archetypes you would have to look for another way of looking at history.  

Not impossible given that the ages have shifted and we could be developing a new pattern which has nothing to do with the old pattern.  But as is, the pattern from the old age seems to have some inertia in shaping the new pattern.