I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-08-2020, 10:20 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Waiting for the Awakening for solving problems is not a good prophecy. Awakenings are inspirational. They bring out the protests. They lay out what needs to be done. They are generally the times of taking half-measures. But getting things done is the province of 4Ts. So, we get it done sufficiently to sustain our civilization in this 4T, or it never gets done. How much are "half measures" I'm not sure. But we must shift society, and turn the corner. Whatever the trigger is, the meat of the crisis remains basically two fold, as it has been for at least 12 years already: the national divide, and climate change. These issues have been "drawn in" already. Just curing the pandemic will not accomplish anything of what was set for us to accomplish by the 1960s-70s Awakening. Pandemics were not a big sixties item. But pollution and climate change was put on the agenda then, as was our national divide, and the race issue too.

I have predicted that come circa 2029-2030 we will be debating whether we have entered a 1T, just as we have continually discussed whether and when we became 4T. Things are a bit fuzzy this time about turning timings, just as they were two saecula ago.

I have seen awakenings as becoming transforming.  In the last awakening the GIs were willing to write decisive legislation to solve problems.  You had protest, do non violence and get legislation.  I am seeing the 1960s as setting our only example for how 2Ts work in the Information Age.  If 4Ts are no longer centered on a crisis war that transforms, the 2T is the time where transformation had better happen.

In the last 2T we were concerned with dirty water.  We built a lot of sewage treatment plants near big cities.  Global Warming wasn't a big issue yet.  I anticipate the next big push to be in the 2T again.  

But part of the national divide is whether we accept science to inform policy.  If there is a yes on COVID, global warming could follow.  It should, except the economy will be in a mess.  If Biden was not such an establishment figure I might anticipate real action on warming.  As is, fusion may be just around the corner.  Once big oil has extracted their profits, they may allow the replacement technology.  We might build fusion reactors everywhere.  Infrastructure building during the high is a traditional thing.  A shift in priorities during the crisis period could happen.

But I am not seeing it yet.  I am seeing COVID, Black Lives Matter, the economy, but global warming is still on the back burner.  There has been no movement that I have observed yet.  I am hopefully known for calling on people to check their opinions against reality.  Those who think global warming ought to be a priority are allowing their perception to be shaped by their desires.  Check reality.