I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 03:09 PM)jleagans Wrote: Not playing catch up on this post, but what's wrong with 2001 being the start of the 4th turning?  This only works if Biden wins and 2020 officially ends the Turning.  

This would make years per turning:

1st - 1946-1964 (roughly) -19 years
2nd-1965-1983 (roughly)- 19 years
3rd-1984-2001-18 years
4th-2002-2020-19 years

I'm sorry but thats creepily balanced and overlays exactly to the generations (as it should).

I’m usually on the fast short side on this, but I think ending it in 2020 is a bit quick. I think the start of the crisis heart falls about there, but you do not allow time to actually resolve the crisis.

Traditionally, the crisis heart was a crisis war. It took 4 to 5 years to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, find competent generals, and push troops into the other guy’s capitol. But that was in the Industrial Age.

This time, thus far we have identified COVID and Black Lives Matter as centering the two key early crisis issues. It takes a year or two to develop a vaccine. The legislation that would make violent racial policing decisively illegal could happen in the same time. You could see the problems of the crisis take as little as a year or two to solve.

You could see another trigger. After we solve the first two issues, another might rear its ugly head. I don’t see what is coming, but then I didn’t see COVID either. Recovering from the virus, I am seeing a general readiness to move away from strife and head into a high mentality. I could be wrong. A lot of people are pushing for 2030 as the end of the crisis. I don’t see it though.

Will the remnants of the Republican base get enamored of another candidate and make a serious push in 2024?

Then there is the never again period, which is generally put at the tail end of the crisis. What will people want to do so the crisis never happens again? Strengthen the World Health Organization? A better set of anti pandemic treaties? If Trump does make the transition of power ugly, will there be changes to the Constitution to prevent it from happening again? If Trump pardons Pence, resigns, then Pence pardons Trump, could you see them making it hard for that to happen again? If slowing the mail causes confusion, could you see constitutional protections put in place? That makes me suggest another few years?

The crisis might end well before the commonly quoted 2030 date, but I think some time for resolving things and saying never again is needed.