08-15-2020, 04:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2020, 04:36 AM by Eric the Green.)
(08-13-2020, 07:06 PM)RadianMay Wrote: The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
I think that Taiwan question could be an unexploded time bomb. It depends on the Chinese, how far their ambitions will go. I think the USA would defend Taiwan, but perhaps not. If China invades around 2024-25, look for the USA to be involved. If before then, maybe not.
Historically China is not very aggressive with its neighbors, but it has been expansive toward what it feels is its territory. I don't think the Chinese authorities want a war with its best customer though.
The Middle East, Syria, the Kurds, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Arabia, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, the Baltic, Afghanistan.... these remain the worst triggers for further US involvement likely in 2024-26.
This crisis is primarily an internal one, having to do with the decay and division of our country. How violent it may become we might find out in January 2021, or more likely in circa 2025. The "existential" crisis fully arrives then. But the division must be resolved with victory by the progressive side, and not just further fragmentation, if our nation is to survive as we have known it, rather than become something else; something poorer and more authoritarian. Joe Biden has made this dilemna, this choice, quite clear in his campaign rhetoric, and I think he is exactly right.
Unless the public becomes more insistent on more radical change, a center-left progress and rectification of some of the ills brought about over the last 40 years is all we can expect from the next 4, if Biden wins. If he doesn't, then the internal battle will heat up, resistance will grow, street battles will intensify, and it will be up to judges to protect our midterm election. If a fair election can be protected, a big question, then the midterms will be a tsunami against the Trump Party. Another impeachment is likely and a Pence succession.
Our fair judiciary will depend on the election of a Democratic Senate this November, in spite of who wins the presidency. If necessary it will have to be willing to be ruthless in blocking all of Trump's appointments for the entire term. That is a big IF.
If Biden does win, even with a Democratic Senate, we are far from out of the woods in this 4T. It will still have a term to run. If the Democrats stay on through the following term in 2025-2029, they will continue to face unmet challenges that require drastic action, and further demands for change, and also further resistance, possibly very violent, from the right. This may include secession by red states. But if Vice President Harris is nominated in 2024, she will lose, and the Republicans will be in a position to squelch the new progress and keep the USA on course toward banana republic status, and our climate toward tropical torridity. Disasters and pandemics will prevail, including covid. Secession by blue states is highly likely, and this is where violence could ramp up if the Trumpists are not willing to let us go and use their control of the red state to enforce their will. Any other kinds of violent or non-violent revolt from the left will fail and be crushed without mercy. A rebellion by the left against the post-Biden/Harris Republican regime after 2024 will require formation of alternative blue states with armies, in a likely full-scale civil war. With Harris' appointment by Biden, I see this outcome as much more likely now. I see the Harris pick as an unmitigated disaster.
Unless the Democrats are willing to nominate a white guy alternative to Harris, in spite of the power of blacks and women in the party who are insistent on having their way, then I am not optimistic about the survival of the USA as we have known it. That is because it so happens that a few white guys (e.g. McAuliffe, Landrieu) seem to be the only ones available in 2024 to win against the favored Republicans. Susan Rice could do it, but I don't see her resigning the secretary of state position she is likely to receive in order to run in 2023-24. But, maybe she will see the Harris weakness and run against her. It seems unlikely, and I see no other black or white women with the chops and youth to win.
Decisions we have made, and will make, and those which Biden will make and already has made, will have direct and predictable consequences. And the cosmic and generational cycles, charts and aspects will have their say too, and cannot be ignored.