Election Night 2020 thread

[beechnut79]

(11-01-2020, 01:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-01-2020, 01:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These days we can expect the Republican to start out leading the popular vote, thanks to Indiana and Kentucky. It will be hard to close the gap, but it should close and reverse in a few hours, and once the west comes in, Biden will build a sizeable lead in the popular vote.

One thing about Indiana: Over a full century, no Republican nominee for President has won the Electoral College (and this includes the two times in which the Republican nominee won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote) without winning Indiana by at least 10%. Indiana is much more rural than neighboring Michigan and Ohio, and the early closing of Indiana polls strongly favors the rural vote.  Indiana may be becoming more suburban as Greater Indianapolis spills into Hamilton County

So what can I say if Trump is winning Indiana by 7% and Indiana gets called early? Biden wins.

OK, so what happens if Indiana becomes more urban (and Suburbia is beginning to take on urban characteristics) Aside from one's employer, the biggest capitalist in most people's lives is a landlord generally perceived as a passive investor who charges what the traffic will bear.  Suburbanites are increasingly renters, and renters don't have as much of a stake in free-wheeling capitalism as do home owners. A state like  Arkansas or Alabama may be dreadfully poor, but people are much more likely to own their home (even if it is 'only' a flimsy shack or a decrepit trailer). Landlords are not known so much for innovation as they are for gouging.

It isn't quite fair, as landlords are conduits of financing costs, insurance, taxes, and utility bills. Still, the easiest way to have gotten rich in California is to have inherited interest in rental property, which is less intellectually-demanding than being a software engineer or a creative person who creates wealth as intellectual property. Of course one must be born into the right family, which counts for much more in contemporary America than it used to.

...The divide between R and D is more rural-urban than of income, ethnicity, or education. Much of it is a divide between homeowner and renter, which explains why Biden has a chance in Georgia and Texas, but not in Alabama or Arkansas. Renters have a dimmer view of capitalism than do home-owners, and people in the giant cities of Georgia and Texas are much more likely to be renters.  It also explains why the only "D" patches in Tennessee are Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) counties. Rural parts of Illinois are as Republican as any other part of America, and Illinois aside from Greater Chicago would be highly R.

Where Indiana is concerned, lest not forget the heavily urbanized northwest corner of the state just outside Chicago, where steel mills dominated for many years. The northern parts of the state also contains South Bend and Fort Wayne.  And much if not most of Illinois outside of greater Chicago and St. Louis suburbs is largely rural as well.