Neil Howe In The News

[sbarrera]

(11-22-2020, 06:19 AM)Arkarch Wrote: Overall, Neil's comments provided some insight on how we can get to the 1T through dominance of one party.

If Trump maintains a strong voice in the current Republican Party and threatens running in 2024, the effect of freezing out current and emerging front-runners will have a detrimental effect on the party.   Trump's time, perhaps beautifully recruited by Bannon, reached its apex in 2016 and maybe up to this past summer.  I think we have knocked down every institution this year.  I do not see this same mood in 2024.

On the other hand, there is divide in the Democratic Party.  While pragmatic heads kept some of the more progressive elements in check, there will be some reckoning ahead.   Ultimately the Democrat success will be reduction of Covid and a successful economic return.  I think big Progressive items will have to wait until 2024 at least, and that fight will start as soon as Biden decides whether he is running by 2022.  (edit - placing Sanders as Sec of Labor, as has been suggesting in the news, may keep things harnessed for a short while longer.)  

The 2022 mid-term will be telling - to a degree.  

Personally, I'll be happy to just wake up without having to worry about what the President did every day.

The last 4T was about 16 years.  I disagree on Neils 22-year prediction.  I think something soon after 2024 will be the 1T marker - and maybe we will debate that until 2030.

As to Civil War...  this could be fought on many other fronts including economic and race.  I do not think its being fought on map boundaries.   And yes I think it will remain Cold.  And as previously stated, I see two swings - Internal/External and Cold/Hot over four saeculums.

I think that successfully defeating Covid and restoring the economy may require some Progressive items!