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Neil Howe In The News
#41
(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

Possible?  Yes!  Likely?  Not really.  Something akin to a division within the nation seems inevitable if the parties (the GOP more than the Dems) can't reign-in their fringe elements, but it will be a tension that doesn't get resolved until the Boomers are out of the way.  And I don't see China and the US going at it.  I don't think that we, as a nation, will ever regain our position as singularly necessary, but we will always be exceedingly important.  So too the Chinese.  What will hold us back, and the Chinese as well, is our chief strength: diversity.  The Han Chinese may be dominant in the same sense whites were dominant in the US, but not forever.  We're proving that right now.  But in the end, we'll be unable to fracture internally and unwilling to fight a nuclear war, so tensions will have to be addressed in other ways.

Just my opinion, which is all we get talking about the future.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#42
Worth highlighting this video with Neil Howe





Some points where I agree. I have said to folks like Teejay who disagree, that the turnings and generations are becoming more global since the global war.

And of course, that we are half way through the fourth turning which began in late 2008. I think in fact that it is the date he preferred as the predicted date before the 4th turning began, but his partner insisted on 2005.

I think Mr. Howe is looking great, and he has a bit more insight that his partner William Strauss had. He has a better view of Awakenings too. But unfortunately, he did not have Strauss's willingness to interact with his readers and fans on forums like this. On the old forum he only made a few posts, and then finally shut it down. We could never get his backing for this newer version. I got to interview Mr. Strauss on the radio show I used to have. I wish I had a show now and I hope I could interview Mr. Howe. 

But the interesting part is that I don't think he ever took thoughts coming from the old and new forum which improve his theory. But we have developed them here over the years. This includes the idea that there are cusps, in which those born a few years on either side of the boundary have something of the neighboring archetype in their generational makeup. Also, the idea of the double rhythm, which makes our 4T more akin to the civil war than world war II, although both involve a great economic crisis. Indeed it is a bit of a hard sell to compare our times, which are so fractured and unlikely to see our two sides get along, to the consensus and strength of institutions during the American High 1T in the 1940s to the early 60s. He tries here, but it falls pretty flat. And our attempts to resolve the civil war anomaly, which make our times more like the 1850s-- a much better comparison than to the 1930s and 40s, and still not the 1860s yet. 

As Howe points out, we have divided ourselves even more sharply in this 2020 election, and have not resolved which Party will dominate and create the new consensus and make the great changes that 4Ts are supposed bring. Was this question resolved in 1855? No, not yet; and not yet today either. But as Howe points out, it would be in 1860, once the opposition party fractured and allowed Lincoln to take full power. Could this happen this time, Howe asks, if like with TR in 1908, a discredited but still popular Donald Trump runs again and can't defeat two opponents? He also forgets that there is a blue boomer contingent that also respects strong government action to solve problems, left over from sixties and seventies activism; we are not all just individualists, and this still makes some blue boomers and boomer/nomad cuspers gray champion material. But not, I have to always mention, Kamala Harris.

He makes an interesting predictive possibility that Republican governors may nullify regulations commanded by a national Democratic administration, as has happened before, and that this could be a spark for secession or civil war-like enforcement. What he does not mention is that it could happen the other way as well if the Republicans take power, and California wants to make stronger regulations about gas mileage, for example. He sees more engagement with allies abroad under a Biden administration. More interesting comments are made in the video.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#43
(11-12-2020, 09:51 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Worth highlighting this video with Neil Howe





Some points where I agree. I have said to folks like Teejay who disagree, that the turnings and generations are becoming more global since the global war.

And of course, that we are half way through the fourth turning which began in late 2008. I think in fact that it is the date he preferred as the predicted date before the 4th turning began, but his partner insisted on 2005.

I think Mr. Howe is looking great, and he has a bit more insight that his partner William Strauss had. He has a better view of Awakenings too. But unfortunately, he did not have Strauss's willingness to interact with his readers and fans on forums like this. On the old forum he only made a few posts, and then finally shut it down. We could never get his backing for this newer version. I got to interview Mr. Strauss on the radio show I used to have. I wish I had a show now and I hope I could interview Mr. Howe. 

But the interesting part is that I don't think he ever took thoughts coming from the old and new forum which improve his theory. But we have developed them here over the years. This includes the idea that there are cusps, in which those born a few years on either side of the boundary have something of the neighboring archetype in their generational makeup. Also, the idea of the double rhythm, which makes our 4T more akin to the civil war than world war II, although both involve a great economic crisis. Indeed it is a bit of a hard sell to compare our times, which are so fractured and unlikely to see our two sides get along, to the consensus and strength of institutions during the American High 1T in the 1940s to the early 60s. He tries here, but it falls pretty flat. And our attempts to resolve the civil war anomaly, which make our times more like the 1850s-- a much better comparison than to the 1930s and 40s, and still not the 1860s yet. 

As Howe points out, we have divided ourselves even more sharply in this 2020 election, and have not resolved which Party will dominate and create the new consensus and make the great changes that 4Ts are supposed bring. Was this question resolved in 1855? No, not yet; and not yet today either. But as Howe points out, it would be in 1860, once the opposition party fractured and allowed Lincoln to take full power. Could this happen this time, Howe asks, if like with TR in 1908, a discredited but still popular Donald Trump runs again and can't defeat two opponents? He also forgets that there is a blue boomer contingent that also respects strong government action to solve problems, left over from sixties and seventies activism; we are not all just individualists, and this still makes some blue boomers and boomer/nomad cuspers gray champion material. But not, I have to always mention, Kamala Harris.

He makes an interesting predictive possibility that Republican governors may nullify regulations commanded by a national Democratic administration, as has happened before, and that this could be a spark for secession or civil war-like enforcement. What he does not mention is that it could happen the other way as well if the Republicans take power, and California wants to make stronger regulations about gas mileage, for example. He sees more engagement with allies abroad under a Biden administration. More interesting comments are made in the video.
In agreement with you on many points. I’m still not sure I accept the notion of a “double rhythm.” But I do understand the concept, and to some extent your rationale. Many pundits are, of course, tossing off the term “civil war” with increasing frequency.  But at least in historical terms, civil war has usually involved armed conflict between two clearly defined sides.  I don’t see a clear demarcation, especially geographically, as with the American Civil War.  Virginia went “blue” politically years ago, and Georgia may not be far behind, two former states of the Confederacy.  So even the old Mason-Dixon Line has been rubbed out.

Yes, there are various militia groups pining for civil war—or worse, a race war. (Take your pick.) But those groups are all over the place, with respect to their individual makeup and objectives. If armed insurrection does break out, it will likely be racialized violence with mass casualty targets, I fear. And that would be bad enough. But I doubt that that violence would escalate to the level of a civil war, and would likely be put down in relatively short order by state and local law enforcement—and federal forces, if need be.

If by “civil war” you mean a soft civil war between Democrats and Republicans, well, that’s been going on for some time now.  The hyperpartisanship of the two parties and the electorate feels more like a Cold War, having dragged out for years with neither party able to sustain a unified government.  And much like the Cold War between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, our Cold War is being fought with competing propaganda and proxies (e.g., Fox vs MSNBC, or “Hate, Inc.” as Matt Taibbi calls them). And as with the real Cold War, it will likely not end until one side has been so discredited as to go out of existence altogether.  That’s the possibility I’m putting my money on.  

I can somewhat see Howe’s speculation about nullification. We’ve had glimmers of that already during the pandemic. Suppose Biden issues a national mask mandate, but a Republican governor defies the executive order. What then? And even if said Republican governor complies, what about maverick mayors who refuse to go along? What we have, really, are Blue Islands in a Red Sea (Austin, TX) or Red Islands in a Blue Sea (Bakersfield, CA). How does that geographical dispersion of competing political affiliations conveniently sort itself out? Rich Republican Californians who move to my very red town for political solidarity can certainly afford to do so. As for those without the means to do the same, well, it’s “tough luck, Chuck.”  

The last time we saw a mass migration of Americans from one region to another were the Okies fleeing the Dust Bowl for California during the Great Depression and, later, Blacks leaving the former plantation South for the industrial North after World War II, the latter of which was ostensibly motivated for both political and economic reasons. Given the recent decline in mobility, is that kind of mass migration even possible today?

Eric, by my own back-of-the-envelope calculations, I agree with Howe that this crisis era could well last another 10 years (2030) with additional crises developing along the way.  Plenty of messy stuff can happen in the interval—another economic collapse, financial meltdown, constitutional crisis and, yes, even a war of whatever nature.
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#44
(11-11-2020, 08:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

I would love to participate in his book. I have some insights outside the box, and I can do some research.  Note also that the 35th anniversary of Generations is in 2024 (has it been that long?)

What must happen?

1. The interstate polarization in political results must weaken. It got more, and not less severe in 2020 than ever (ruling out the Southern states that did not have a meaningful Republican Party before at least the 1950's) since the run-up to the Civil War. 

2. If we need the effect of a Crisis War, then COVID-19 is it. It kills like a Crisis War; it is killing Americans at least on the scale of World War II, and it is likely to kill for a few more months. COVID-19 has forced people to change their behavior or has put them at risk of severe consequences. The body count is at a level that Americans will not long tolerate. COVID-19 will change even American culture to reflect its devastation. 

9 months from now, covid-19 will essentially be over in 1st world countries, the vast majority of their populations having immunity through vaccinations or through having had the disease themselves already.

But the Crisis will be far from over.  We're nowhere close to the end.  It's impossible to know what form the rest of the crisis will take.  Neil Howe mentions possible war with China, or some sort of civil war between parts of the U.S.  One way or another, though, the situation demands a huge crisis, some sort of enormous conflict big enough to bring the U.S. together and allow us to transition into the next high.

I can easily see a civil war starting.  Some time in the next few years, we end up with both houses of congress being controlled by democrats, as well as the white house with Biden.  Democrats begin passing far reaching legislation.  Red states refuse to follow whatever laws are being passed, and openly defy federal law.  An actual war could break out, and in the chaos, you could end up with some attempted socialist revolution, fascist takeover of government, or who know what else.

I think we'll be doing well if we emerge from the crisis with the U.S. still in one piece, not a dictatorship, and with no nuclear weapons having been used.
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#45
(11-12-2020, 10:04 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(11-11-2020, 08:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

I would love to participate in his book. I have some insights outside the box, and I can do some research.  Note also that the 35th anniversary of Generations is in 2024 (has it been that long?)

What must happen?

1. The interstate polarization in political results must weaken. It got more, and not less severe in 2020 than ever (ruling out the Southern states that did not have a meaningful Republican Party before at least the 1950's) since the run-up to the Civil War. 

2. If we need the effect of a Crisis War, then COVID-19 is it. It kills like a Crisis War; it is killing Americans at least on the scale of World War II, and it is likely to kill for a few more months. COVID-19 has forced people to change their behavior or has put them at risk of severe consequences. The body count is at a level that Americans will not long tolerate. COVID-19 will change even American culture to reflect its devastation. 

9 months from now, covid-19 will essentially be over in 1st world countries, the vast majority of their populations having immunity through vaccinations or through having had the disease themselves already.

But the Crisis will be far from over.  We're nowhere close to the end.  It's impossible to know what form the rest of the crisis will take.  Neil Howe mentions possible war with China, or some sort of civil war between parts of the U.S.  One way or another, though, the situation demands a huge crisis, some sort of enormous conflict big enough to bring the U.S. together and allow us to transition into the next high.

I can easily see a civil war starting.  Some time in the next few years, we end up with both houses of congress being controlled by democrats, as well as the white house with Biden.  Democrats begin passing far reaching legislation.  Red states refuse to follow whatever laws are being passed, and openly defy federal law.  An actual war could break out, and in the chaos, you could end up with some attempted socialist revolution, fascist takeover of government, or who know what else.

I think we'll be doing well if we emerge from the crisis with the U.S. still in one piece, not a dictatorship, and with no nuclear weapons having been used.
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#46
Overall, Neil's comments provided some insight on how we can get to the 1T through dominance of one party.

If Trump maintains a strong voice in the current Republican Party and threatens running in 2024, the effect of freezing out current and emerging front-runners will have a detrimental effect on the party. Trump's time, perhaps beautifully recruited by Bannon, reached its apex in 2016 and maybe up to this past summer. I think we have knocked down every institution this year. I do not see this same mood in 2024.

On the other hand, there is divide in the Democratic Party. While pragmatic heads kept some of the more progressive elements in check, there will be some reckoning ahead. Ultimately the Democrat success will be reduction of Covid and a successful economic return. I think big Progressive items will have to wait until 2024 at least, and that fight will start as soon as Biden decides whether he is running by 2022. (edit - placing Sanders as Sec of Labor, as has been suggesting in the news, may keep things harnessed for a short while longer.)

The 2022 mid-term will be telling - to a degree.

Personally, I'll be happy to just wake up without having to worry about what the President did every day.

The last 4T was about 16 years. I disagree on Neils 22-year prediction. I think something soon after 2024 will be the 1T marker - and maybe we will debate that until 2030.

As to Civil War... this could be fought on many other fronts including economic and race. I do not think its being fought on map boundaries. And yes I think it will remain Cold. And as previously stated, I see two swings - Internal/External and Cold/Hot over four saeculums.
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#47
(11-22-2020, 06:03 AM)Arkarch Wrote:
(11-12-2020, 10:04 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(11-11-2020, 08:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

I would love to participate in his book. I have some insights outside the box, and I can do some research.  Note also that the 35th anniversary of Generations is in 2024 (has it been that long?)

What must happen?

1. The interstate polarization in political results must weaken. It got more, and not less severe in 2020 than ever (ruling out the Southern states that did not have a meaningful Republican Party before at least the 1950's) since the run-up to the Civil War. 

2. If we need the effect of a Crisis War, then COVID-19 is it. It kills like a Crisis War; it is killing Americans at least on the scale of World War II, and it is likely to kill for a few more months. COVID-19 has forced people to change their behavior or has put them at risk of severe consequences. The body count is at a level that Americans will not long tolerate. COVID-19 will change even American culture to reflect its devastation. 

9 months from now, covid-19 will essentially be over in 1st world countries, the vast majority of their populations having immunity through vaccinations or through having had the disease themselves already.

In the mean time, perhaps more people will die of COVID-19 in America than have already died because we are in a particularly-deadly third wave. I'm doing what I can to avoid crowds; I wear a mask in public settings; I wash my hands frequently for at least twenty seconds. I am not going to throw away fifteen to twenty good years of life out of some reckless refusal to defer gratification. I have always played the long game in life.      


Quote:But the Crisis will be far from over.  We're nowhere close to the end.  It's impossible to know what form the rest of the crisis will take.  Neil Howe mentions possible war with China, or some sort of civil war between parts of the U.S.  One way or another, though, the situation demands a huge crisis, some sort of enormous conflict big enough to bring the U.S. together and allow us to transition into the next high.

We have had the economic calamity and we are now having the mass death as if from a meat-grinder war. Many ways of life, many commonplace myths, and many fads are being discredited. We are at the end of the line for greater levels of productivity creating more human happiness. We have adjustments to make, and we have just cast out a catastrophic failure as President.


Quote:I can easily see a civil war starting.  Some time in the next few years, we end up with both houses of congress being controlled by democrats, as well as the white house with Biden.  Democrats begin passing far reaching legislation.  Red states refuse to follow whatever laws are being passed, and openly defy federal law.  An actual war could break out, and in the chaos, you could end up with some attempted socialist revolution, fascist takeover of government, or who know what else.

A Czechoslovak-style divorce looks more likely now. It is possible that as America becomes more homogenized in politics, the interstate polarization will weaken. When only fourteen states are decided by 10% or less, we obviously have some huge regional divides. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Margin 

Blue for Trump, Red for Biden 

10-15% saturation 8
8-10% saturation 6 
5-8% saturation 5
1-3% saturation 4
under 1% saturation 2

Gray... completely out of contest, and you know how those states and districts are oriented. 

I am guessing, putting the wayward Second Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska in the middle category. As I make this map, Biden leads in New York state by 14.75%... but a significant number of votes are outstanding and they are largely in ultra-solid D New York City.  Ohio slipped a category and New York City will push the state past a 15% category when the votes are fully counted.  

Fully thirty-one states were decided by 15% or more in 2020!  It is possible to say that the Trump Administration flooded some farm states with farm subsidies to distract voters in those states from the damage that his trade war with China caused.  How the states have voted beginning in 2000:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]

 



all six for the Republican
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
(white - 3R, 1D)
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat

That is six elections and the biggest changes since then have been 

(1) that several states that once favored Democrats in Democratic wins and that even voted twice for Bill Clinton in the 1990's have swung completely to the GOP and haven't gotten close
(2) the West Coast went from the fringe of competitiveness for Republicans to out of reach for them 
(3) Virginia went from the sort of state that never voted for a Democrat except in a landslide (from 1952 to 2004 it had gone D only for LBJ in 1964) to strongly D; New Mexico went from shaky D to strong D; Colorado went from iffy in D landslides to solid D. 
(4) the fast-growing Mexican-American vote in the southwestern United States is making Arizona and even Texas shaky for Republican nominees for President.
(5) The Republican Party has lost its appeal to the educated part of the urban middle class.

Not shown on this map: the urban-suburban difference in politics is becoming a triviality as suburban areas lose their old rural character (white populations, low density and relatively recent infrastructure that has low costs of maintenance) and become more urban (less white, higher density as apartment complexes replace the 70-year-old 'starter homes' of WWII veterans, and obsolete infrastructure in need of costly repairs or rebuilding).

Quote:I think we'll be doing well if we emerge from the crisis with the U.S. still in one piece, not a dictatorship, and with no nuclear weapons having been used.

Here is one pattern worth remembering: betting against the United States of America is has been a sucker bet. We lost the war in Vietnam only because we got tired of the war after enduring about one fifth the military casualties of the Vietnam War as so far from COVID-19 and seeing no good in the war but an easy escape.  We have no obvious, easy escape from COVID-19 or we would have taken it. Here's one group who would come to regret betting against the United States:

[Image: 220px-Defendants_in_the_dock_at_nuremberg_trials.jpg]

Twelve of the defendants (Martin Bormann, not yet known to be dead, was tried in absentia and sentenced to death) would be sentenced to death by hanging for some horrific crimes that they thought at some point they would get away with because Nazi Germany would win the war, or at the least trivialized the wrongness of their crimes. 

This fellow believed that he did nothing wrong even if his duties included giving false assurances of the good will of Hitler to political leaders whose countries Hitler would attack and invade, arranging agreements with other countries to dismember other countries in shared aggression, having responsibilities for brutal administration of countries under Nazi rule, encouraging leaders of satellite states of the Third Reich to deliver their Jews to Nazi extermination camps, and even advocating the lynching of downed Allied fliers. Joachim von Ribbentrop was wrong:

[Image: 260px-Deadjoachimribbentrop.jpg]

DEAD WRONG! 

It is my hope that in about ten years Americans will be less tolerant of 'deplorable' identity. Pride in ignorance will bring shame, as it will become socially unacceptable -- perhaps even in rural, white America. I expect some cultural changes, including a norm of 14 years of education after kindergarten instead of 12, with '13' and '14' teaching people a trade and how to live most fully. Standardized college courses in economics, philosophy, comparative political systems, world literature, comparative religion, psychology, and maybe a little music appreciation and art appreciation?  Life is more than economic gain and indulgence, collecting more shoddy stuff that ends up in the landfill or experiences (like 'the nudie bar' that the Al
Bundy character on Married With Children teases his son with) that one can't really talk about in polite company?

Don't be a hoarder, don't be a bore, and above all, don't do evil.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#48
(11-22-2020, 06:19 AM)Arkarch Wrote: Overall, Neil's comments provided some insight on how we can get to the 1T through dominance of one party.

If Trump maintains a strong voice in the current Republican Party and threatens running in 2024, the effect of freezing out current and emerging front-runners will have a detrimental effect on the party.   Trump's time, perhaps beautifully recruited by Bannon, reached its apex in 2016 and maybe up to this past summer.  I think we have knocked down every institution this year.  I do not see this same mood in 2024.

On the other hand, there is divide in the Democratic Party.  While pragmatic heads kept some of the more progressive elements in check, there will be some reckoning ahead.   Ultimately the Democrat success will be reduction of Covid and a successful economic return.  I think big Progressive items will have to wait until 2024 at least, and that fight will start as soon as Biden decides whether he is running by 2022.  (edit - placing Sanders as Sec of Labor, as has been suggesting in the news, may keep things harnessed for a short while longer.)  

The 2022 mid-term will be telling - to a degree.  

Personally, I'll be happy to just wake up without having to worry about what the President did every day.

The last 4T was about 16 years.  I disagree on Neils 22-year prediction.  I think something soon after 2024 will be the 1T marker - and maybe we will debate that until 2030.

As to Civil War...  this could be fought on many other fronts including economic and race.  I do not think its being fought on map boundaries.   And yes I think it will remain Cold.  And as previously stated, I see two swings - Internal/External and Cold/Hot over four saeculums.

I think that successfully defeating Covid and restoring the economy may require some Progressive items!
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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