08-13-2016, 04:43 PM
Mikebert Wrote:My earlier work using a correlation between Kondratieff signposts and turnings had implied the start of the 4T was in the 2000-2008 period. Taken together this all implies that if the S&H cycle is valid, a 4T began not later than 2008 and quite possibly before, but not earlier than 2000.
I am working on a hypothesis that the turnaround in inequality last cycle reflected a crisis in capitalism over 1907-1941 caused by high inequality. It is happening again, with a new episode beginning around 2006. It is rare that history aligns to give you an opportunity to make an explicit (relatively) short term prediction. This is one of those times. The capitalist crisis hypothesis (CCH) predicts a 10000+ drop in the Dow from its peak before the beginning of the next economic expansion. If this fails to happen CCH is rejected.
CCH also predicts another financial crisis during the next recession or the one after it.
OK, is there any correlation between CCH and Elliot wave theory ? Another question would be is if any indicator is of use do to the massive FED intervention in the markets? It seems to me that interest rate repression has caused a lot of risk on behavior in the markets.
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