05-07-2021, 05:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021, 05:29 AM by Eric the Green.)
(05-05-2021, 02:42 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beatles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:(05-03-2021, 01:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I mostly agree with Brower's descriptions of the turnings, but not the dates or all the names.
1946-1963 1st turning. It ended with JFK's assassination, not MLK's.
1964-1984 2nd turning. Ends only with Reagan's re-election and "morning in America." Before then the awakening mood persisted into Reagan's 1st term, even though it was getting sullen and less inspiring. Again, it should not be called the Boom Awakening. It was the Consciousness Revolution, in which all generations participated. That does not mean that all generations were listening to the music of the new pop counter-culture, of course. But the Awakening belongs to the mid-1960s and the LSD-driven counter-culture, the human potential/new age movements, and all the myriad social and political awakenings, with 1966 being the year when it exploded at greatest Richter-scale levels. Remember the explosive emerging of "black power" culture proclaimed by Stokely Carmichael and Floyd McKissick at the march against fear in June 1966, and the simultaneous founding of the National Organization for Women. Remember what secular millennials forget about the Strauss and Howe theory; that the concept of Awakenings are the periodic spiritual events that contrast with the secular crisis periods. The second turning was a Consciousness Revolution, of tremendous scale and significance, and primarily to do with cultural and spiritual awakenings. It is the only period in the cycle where substantial numbers of people, mostly young and middle aged, can change their worldviews. That is what happened in the 2nd turning of 1964-1984. Today's millennials often try to suppress this awakening through such media as wikipedia, pretending that the discoveries of this awakening were just a passing phase. They are not; they remain true and relevant.
1984-2008 3rd turning. The Fall of Communism fits in well with the "decadent," neo-liberal and "free-market" Reaganomics program of this turning. Only the resulting great crash and recession in 2008 was the existential threat that could have sent the USA and the world off a financial cliff that could have been fatal; not Katrina. Before about Nov. 2008, economists were still not ready even to call it a recession. But the crash precipitated by the fall of Lehman Brothers in Sept.2008 was the decisive event. Before that, cracks were appearing (mostly only since 2007, not 2005), but they were only cracks; the mood of the nation had not shifted at all. People at WAMU were still tipping wine classes and celebrating their big profits.
2008-2029 4th turning. We just passed the half way point. The recession lingered for most people because the Republicans blocked everything after the initial stimulus. Then Trump came along, and although recovery continued at a slower rate than during Obama's second term, Trump himself became the Crisis personified, including his mishandling of covid. The regeneracy has begun, timed with the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec. 21, 2020, but the Republicans have put up huge walls, and are putting up more. The resistance to progress has not been broken. So the Crisis goes on.
Covid was the inevitable result, as was the 2008 crash, of the rule of neo-liberalism, installed with Reagan's election in Nov. 1980 and tax cuts in July 1981 (on the exact date of Jupiter-Saturn conjunction). Although the 20-year/40-year Jupiter-Saturn/Skowronek cycle played out with these events, and ending with Trump's fall, the Awakening mood continued after 1981 because Reagan was still unpopular and because the 1980 recession continued, and so did the 2nd turning in the 84-year saeculum/Uranus cycle. But once neo-liberalism became enthroned, with its "trickle-down economics" program of lower taxes and regulations on the "job creaters" (rich/big business), subsidies for big, deadly corporations, cuts in social spending, ending environmental progress and consumer protection, accelerating climate change, and scapegoating and demeaning of welfare and social programs as "dependency", it ruined everything that it touched. Another crash like 1929 was inevitable, given the lax regulations of business and unleashed speculation of neo-liberal policy, followed under all presidents in varying degrees from Reagan to Trump, and under Republican power at all levels. Under the neo-liberal on steroids, Donald Trump, the federal government left the response to covid to states and individuals on the grounds that a federal big-government program was "tyranny." This did not work. So the covid crisis, the great recession, the racial unrest, the climate crisis, gun massacres, and gross inequality and health care debacles, are all the outcome of neo-liberal rule, mostly during the 3rd turning and extending into the 4th. Also, the neo-libs were often allied with the neo-cons, who were big on military spending and on starting unnecessary, expensive, deadly wars. Then there's the alt-right, another ally of neo-libs and neo-cons, and chief booster of Trump; bent on blaming immigrants, building national protective walls and spreading conspiracy theories. And the call for "law and order" is always available to right-wing demagogues.
I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).
I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?
In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.
I don't know just what events will lead us into a third turning around 2066. What I wrote was that, unlike 1984, there could be a lot of progressive trends swirling around that year, and they could be green. The climate crisis will still be causing lots of floods. But there could also be a tax revolt and a "green scare." The square of Neptune and Pluto of that era signifies a lot of disillusion and decadence will characterize the 2060s. In general, the basic historical parallel to the times of circa 2066 is to the 1890s and early 1900s, and the 1970s and 80s come to mind as well. As for 2090, as is usually the case in our large and varied society, there will be lots of varied trends. But I think in 2090 and 2092-93 there will be a cyber-crisis and an economic crisis that will dampen the mood, and focus the people on more practical and civic concerns and on helping the less fortunate, probably similar to the 1930s (Neptune in Virgo, as then). Populist tyranny could make a comeback during this 4T. The recession or depression won't be as deep as in the 1930s though, or long-lasting. There will be an upswing soon that moves us toward an expansive era. In 4Ts a great war can't be ruled out, circa 2110. It depends on our level of social and spiritual evolution. There could be a disruptive and far-reaching revolution too (Uranus conjunct Pluto, circa 2104). A lot of Earth rebuilding could be done. But by the 2090s, the information age, although still dominant in many ways, will be less focused on tech progress. The era might even be called "the end of progress." It looks to me like some sudden computer crash in June 2090 will cause a lot of information age infrastructure and a lot of interest in technology to collapse.
Did you get my book yet? I can't write my book here, but you can get it and read it
