05-07-2021, 10:56 AM
(05-07-2021, 09:35 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Early 22nd century.....
Eric, do you think that the projected Crisis of 2100 may end around 2110? If so, the subsequent 2T would start around 2128/2130, and probably last to around 2148/2150.
Whoa! S&H identified a repeating pattern, but that doesn't equate with a timer. There is no greater chance that we can accurately predict events that far out than we can predict the weather two years from today. There are always unexpected events that change the pattern slightly (or not so slightly), and extend or compress the timeline. Yes, the pattern will be there, but the rest is just ungrounded speculation.
Based on known threats and more near-term predictions that will have real effects, we can guess. For example, the current projected timeline for AI achieving human level intellectual capacity is 20-30 years. After that, the machines will continue to advance. Where is that in anyone's calculus today?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.