I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[pbrower2a]

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(05-07-2021, 05:14 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 02:42 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beatles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?

I don't know just what events will lead us into a third turning around 2066. What I wrote was that, unlike 1984, there could be a lot of progressive trends swirling around that year, and they could be green. The climate crisis will still be causing lots of floods. But there could also be a tax revolt and a "green scare." The square of Neptune and Pluto of that era signifies a lot of disillusion and decadence will characterize the 2060s. In general, the basic historical parallel to the times of circa 2066 is to the 1890s and early 1900s, and the 1970s and 80s come to mind as well. As for 2090, as is usually the case in our large and varied society, there will be lots of varied trends. But I think in 2090 and 2092-93 there will be a cyber-crisis and an economic crisis that will dampen the mood, and focus the people on more practical and civic concerns and on helping the less fortunate, probably similar to the 1930s (Neptune in Virgo, as then). Populist tyranny could make a comeback during this 4T. The recession or depression won't be as deep as in the 1930s though, or long-lasting. There will be an upswing soon that moves us toward an expansive era. In 4Ts a great war can't be ruled out, circa 2110. It depends on our level of social and spiritual evolution. There could be a disruptive and far-reaching revolution too (Uranus conjunct Pluto, circa 2104). A lot of Earth rebuilding could be done. But by the 2090s, the information age, although still dominant in many ways, will be less focused on tech progress. The era might even be called "the end of progress." It looks to me like some sudden computer crash in June 2090 will cause a lot of information age infrastructure and a lot of interest in technology to collapse.

Did you get my book yet? I can't write my book here, but you can get it and read it

Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since N&H got most of the dates the turnings occured in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

Technology typically solves more problems than it causes. A dangerous technology has a tendency to either not be implemented or to appear, like the automobile, with needful regulation. Any technology (think or motion pictures, the telephone, radio, recorded music, or the automobile) can have cultural effects, and something like the birth-control poll can change sexual practices. So people have more sex and fewer babies. It's up to people to decide to not use a motor vehicle as a way to get to the a criminal opportunity or to use it to get away from the act... or to not use computers in scams.

The trick in Howe and Strauss theory is to separate coincidences from cause. I agree with Eric on much, but I do not get astrology. Astrophysics is far easier to understand, and should there be a nearby gamma-ray burst by astronomical standards, then we are literally cooked. There are patterns of intellectual life, politics, mass culture, labor-management relations, and wars. To put it in the crudest terms, a 3T is a time in which people collect oily rags, a 4T is a time when the oily rags do spontaneous combustion, a 1T is when people replace what is lost in the fires from spontaneous combustion of oily rags, and a 2T is a time in which people relax their guards against crazy ideas.