06-16-2021, 07:39 PM
(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?
No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).
This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?
My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really
Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.
There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.
Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.
I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.
I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.
Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.
Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?
I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?