06-18-2021, 07:46 AM
(06-17-2021, 04:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(06-17-2021, 08:13 AM)David Horn Wrote: Yes, there are more Blues than Reds, but the Reds feel under siege. Expect every dirty trick in the book -- and some not written. Just look elsewhere for clues on just how far this can go. The large swaths of social conservatives see this time as existential. I doubt the progressives are as motivated.
I agree that 2022 will tell the tale. Will the miscreants in the GOP succeed in stealing (yes, that's the right word) elections by then? They are certainly trying. If stasis prevents Federal legislation to overturn most of the meddling, then assume 2024 will be crisis in brief.
2022 will be crucial for a successful 4T, but if the Republicans win, the 4T won't be over. Biden will run for re-election and probably win (or at least I hope so; if Kamala is nominated she will lose). So assuming Biden wins again in 2024 then there's 4 more years in which the blue side can carry the day. These days, progressives are more and more motivated. But I agree, the reds feel under siege and we can't underestimate the lengths to which they are already demonstrating they will go.
That's why it's a battle. The confederates felt the same way. The blues were less motivated then too, but like us they were the majority, and they prevailed, and I predict that today's blues will also prevail. But it shows what a fight we truly have on our hands. That just means that the 4T isn't over; not that we have already lost, or even that if we lose in 2022 we will have lost the battle.
But then, I have some faith that the Uranus Return to its degree position in the USA horoscope will still be significant, as it was so significant in the past. It marks the crisis climax, as in 1776, 1861 and 1944, to the degree, and marked the previous crises in the 1690s and 1608 too, and it is not due until 2027. And there's no reason to believe the saeculum is speeding up and can be prematurely cut off just because things still look dark. Mr. Howe doesn't think so. The archetypal 84-year length of a human life, the basis for both cycles, has not changed.
"The tides of man wait for no one". We've moved into a new paradigm twice in the brief history of this republic, and both changes: the Industrial Age and the Information Age, altered the saeculum in subtle but observable ways. One of those changes is the intensity of the dominant Turnings. In the case of 2Ts, communication that took days or weeks before the telegraph became same-day nationwide (and later worldwide). The internet has put that model on steroids. 4Ts were expedited by the railroad and later by automobiles and airplanes. Hypersonic weapons will move that to real time. The intensity level merely follows suit. Look at the last 2T as the first full model. So no, we can't be this way for another 6 to 9 years. If this is a game of attrition, the neo-GOP will probably win long before we reach 2030.
I agree that the saeculum itself is driven by the human life, so adjustments will be take here and give there. Was our last 1T longer? I think it was, by a year or two. I think we've just watched an extended 3T as well.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.