I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Eric the Green]

(06-18-2021, 02:20 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(06-17-2021, 04:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-16-2021, 07:39 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

Yes indeed. And the 2070s will definitely be 3T.

I'm not so sure about 1815, except it definitely was the Awakening start in Europe because of the renewal of liberal movements there, so some echo probably happened here, probably the start of the anti-slavery movement. And possibly some spiritualist or romantic trends. 

1850 is pretty clear. The compromise staved off a real danger of civil war breaking out. President Taylor was ready to "march and crush the traitors," but then he died. The end of the Mexican War made the battle to get more free or slave states uppermost. When Abraham Lincoln met "Uncle Tom's Cabin" author Harriet B. Stowe he told her, "so you're the little lady who made this big war". The book came out in 1851-52. It was a big deal. Then came the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, and the battle was on.

What kinds of stuff might break out in the 2070s (I think you said in your book that there might be a second Teddy Roosevelt either in the late 1860s or the 1870s and that disease and guns might still sadly be a problem here in America, but on the brighter side there might be a watershed moment in 2074 comparable to Neil Armstrong landing on the moon in 1969)? What would you say might be a good historical analogy/parallel to that decade (in either the Civil War, Great Power, or Millennium saeculums)?

In your forecast, you said the 2080s would be a calmer (and probably more fun) decade, but still very 3T, correct? At any rate, it certainly sounds like it's gonna parallel the Roaring Twenties a lot, I think you said there might be a second prohibition era (if the double rhythm holds there, I see that working about as well as it did in the 1920s, LOL)? I think you also said the 2080s might actually make the Roaring Twenties look chaste in comparison (both culturally and in terms of loosening social mores)?

Yeah, I think you're right, there was already an anti-slavery movement here in America as early as 1815 (I think there might have even been a few seeds planted before that, but those were likely pre-Awakening early 1960s like events). I know S&H's name for the 1794-1815 1T doesn't work, as the supposed 'Era of Good Feelings' started in 1815 (when the 1T was already all but over and the Awakening was starting).

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this (especially on this forum), but I know next to nothing about President Taylor, what was he like? Was it his death that officially ended the 3T and started the 4T, or was it a little before or after that?

I don't know; you might know more about my book than I do at this point   I am more focused on current events in this 4T right now. But that sounds right for the 2070s, and the best parallel will be the 1900s-1910s. But yes the 2080s will parallel the 1920s in their roar, but the early years will be very idealistic and progressive, quite different from other 3T decades.

Taylor was a victorious general in the Mexican War. The only two presidents elected by Whigs were old generals who didn't live out their terms (the other was W H Harrison in 1840). He was no liberal, but he was very irrascible. He was not given to compromise. I would say the controversy about whether states entering the union conquered in the Mexican War (especially good ol CA, and NM) would be slave or free, leading up to Taylor's threat to start a civil war, was the start of the 4T; the Compromise merely staved it off temporarily.