06-20-2021, 03:59 PM
(06-19-2021, 08:05 PM)David Horn Wrote:(06-18-2021, 02:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Again, that's a focus on tech as the driver of civilization and progress. That's not so, as I see it. Politics has slowed down, and that's the key point. It is taking longer to make any shift, for better, or even for worse. The length of human life not having changed, or if anything gotten a bit longer, will confirm the uneven rhythm of the current saeculum, with the last 1T (only 1946-1963 according to S&H) and the previous 4T (1929-1945) being shorter (not longer), and thereby this is extending the 4T to a normal turning length. The 3T (1984-Sept. 2008) lasted longer, and the 4T has been sporadic in its trends; but first a great crash and recession, then a Tea Party and a Trump presidency, and then a covid crisis, plus the ongoing and intensifying global warming crisis, have all made this definitely a 4T since 2008, and one due to last 21 years, the normal length of a turning.
I'll dispute the 1T ending in 1963, the Kennedy assassination not to the contrary. I was 16 when Kennedy was assassinated, and it made a lasting impression, but so did 9/11. The real mood change began with the Freedom rides, but it wasn't strong enough to create the change until the Vietnam War became unavoidable: 1966 or so. The 2T ended when Reagan fired the air traffic controllers, and his new paradigm took hold fully: 1982. That makes the 1T roughly 20 years and the 2T about 16. If the 3Tended in 2008 (26 years) then my premise is true.
Eric Wrote:None of this has really been resolved, because political change is stalemated. So the battle still looms, and violence is not off the table-- as we have already seen early this year. Boomers like us cannot put ourselves off the hook, NO SIRREEE! We still must lead the way, even into the 1T starting in around 2028. Social media and the internet has merely made the stalemate stronger and more intense, since each side can spread its views more easily, and the red side's ability to spread misinformation has ballooned as never before. Only changes in thinking (a relatively few people dropping the conservative ideologies) will cause the blue side to get enough of a victory by 2029 to dislodge the stalemate and resolve issues, even if the consensus among the public only extends to about a 56-44 percentage, in a 1T that will be more like the 1870s than the 1950s.
I suspect that a resolution of some sort will happen in the next 5 years, and violence will ad hoc or nonexistent.
Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.