06-24-2021, 03:26 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2021, 03:32 PM by Eric the Green.)
(06-24-2021, 10:52 AM)galaxy Wrote: An alternating pattern of "good ending" and "bad ending" 4Ts does not require any mechanism or institution that spans multiple saecula.
The thing that causes a bad-ending 4T appears to be a lack of will, ability, or both to leave the 3T way of life.
So, consider:
good-ending 4T -> very powerful 1T (extremely peaceful, extremely conformist, etc) -> very powerful 2T (strong reaction against intensity of conformism) -> very powerful 3T (result of intense 2T) -> bad-ending 4T (society is too 3T-ish during 4T, failure to unify) -> weak 1T (more active, less conformist) -> weak 2T (just not as much to rebel against) -> weak 3T (society isn't quite so "awakened") -> good-ending 4T (society much more easily leaves the 3T behind).
I've said things to this effect in other posts (such as referring to the post-Civil War 1T as "reconstructing" and post-World War 1T as "reconstructed," and my thread about the distinction between 4Ts in which the country faces an external enemy and 4Ts in which the country battles against itself), but here it is fully articulated.
Thoughts?
That's good. A quibble over terms though. I would say there hasn't been a "bad" 4T, or a "failed" one, ever in anglo-american history, so ours would be the first. But the civil war 4T, though it ended well with the progressive side winning, as usual, resulted in less consensus, because it was an internal battle. So instead of just "bad" it was something like "less consensual." or "less unified 4T." That's the kind of 4T we are in today, and it fits the pattern.
And it is just a degree of difference. The turnings between saecula are more alike than they are different. There was an internal battle during the Depression, but the losing side lost more decisively and earlier. In the Civil War European powers threatened to intervene. In the Revolution, the tories were shoved aside pretty quickly, and the attention was on the external enemy. However, even then, before the Revolution was declared the colonies were not literally "external" to the British Empire.