I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[beechnut79]

(06-29-2021, 03:14 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 08:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 03:29 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 03:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 02:20 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: What kinds of stuff might break out in the 2070s (I think you said in your book that there might be a second Teddy Roosevelt either in the late 1860s or the 1870s and that disease and guns might still sadly be a problem here in America, but on the brighter side there might be a watershed moment in 2074 comparable to Neil Armstrong landing on the moon in 1969)? What would you say might be a good historical analogy/parallel to that decade (in either the Civil War, Great Power, or Millennium saeculums)?

In your forecast, you said the 2080s would be a calmer (and probably more fun) decade, but still very 3T, correct? At any rate, it certainly sounds like it's gonna parallel the Roaring Twenties a lot, I think you said there might be a second prohibition era (if the double rhythm holds there, I see that working about as well as it did in the 1920s, LOL)? I think you also said the 2080s might actually make the Roaring Twenties look chaste in comparison (both culturally and in terms of loosening social mores)?

Yeah, I think you're right, there was already an anti-slavery movement here in America as early as 1815 (I think there might have even been a few seeds planted before that, but those were likely pre-Awakening early 1960s like events). I know S&H's name for the 1794-1815 1T doesn't work, as the supposed 'Era of Good Feelings' started in 1815 (when the 1T was already all but over and the Awakening was starting).

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this (especially on this forum), but I know next to nothing about President Taylor, what was he like? Was it his death that officially ended the 3T and started the 4T, or was it a little before or after that?

I don't know; you might know more about my book than I do at this point   I am more focused on current events in this 4T right now. But that sounds right for the 2070s, and the best parallel will be the 1900s-1910s. But yes the 2080s will parallel the 1920s in their roar, but the early years will be very idealistic and progressive, quite different from other 3T decades.

Taylor was a victorious general in the Mexican War. The only two presidents elected by Whigs were old generals who didn't live out their terms (the other was W H Harrison in 1840). He was no liberal, but he was very irrascible. He was not given to compromise. I would say the controversy about whether states entering the union conquered in the Mexican War (especially good ol CA, and NM) would be slave or free, leading up to Taylor's threat to start a civil war, was the start of the 4T; the Compromise merely staved it off temporarily.

Fair enough.  You're right though, that WOULD be different from other 3T decades (LOL). After the Cold War ended, I suppose there were some shades of idealism in the 1990s under Clinton (but still, hardly what you would really call progressive). Is it fair to say Generation Alpha's influence in politics (being the Prophet/Idealist generation that they'll become) will lend the early 2080s it's idealistic and progressive reputation? Plus, since people are living longer now, I'm sure at least some of us Millennials will still be around as well (Mr. Brower has brought up before that older generations living longer might help to stave off the worst aspects/trends of any turning, this could be just such an example).

Yeah, that all makes sense. So Taylor was a Whig I take it (if he was, he was DEFINITELY bad news then)?

Right, and Woodrow Wilson was another example of an idealist during a 3T, although he was not so idealistic in some ways. But this indicates that the early 2080s, in which Uranus will line up with Jupiter and Saturn in Aquarius with Neptune opposing in Leo, could see some breakthroughs like we saw after WWI and after the Cold War. Major economic policy changes too.

Taylor ran as a Whig, but probably only because the Whigs chose him (like the Republicans chose Ike before the Democrats could get him). There was not much difference between the parties then, but the Republicans took over the Whig mantle when the Whigs collapsed due to riffs over slavery.

You're right, Woodrow Wilson was also an idealist (albeit from the Progressive Artist/Adaptive generation) and probably one of the better 3T leaders we've had. It really is ironic that the 2080s will be so idealistic for a 3T, because now I'm suddenly thinking of the 1970s, which (as we both know) was very cynical compared to other 2T decades (LOL). Is there any chance us old age Millennials will be willing to work together with midlife Gen Alphers (providing we can get over some of our typical midlife/elderhood hubris as a Hero/Civic generation) in our next 3T?

I take it Uranus lined up with Jupiter and Saturn in Aquarius with Neptune opposing in Leo during the 1920s and 1990s (or after the end of WWI and the Cold War) too?

That makes sense, I actually DID look up Taylor a bit more, and while he was no liberal/progressive by any means, it certainly doesn't sound like he was anywhere near as bad as the core Whig Party. Hey, I know you said before that the mood shift occurred in 1834 because that was the year that the resistance against the Abolitionist Movement started, but do you think there was a specific moment in 1834 when the Awakening ended and the 3T began?

I would argue that the present is a much more cynical and downbeat time than were the 1970s. Sure there were those bummed out by the fallout from Watergate, and Carter May have hinted at a national malaise, even if that M word wasn’t specifically uttered. It was a wild and fun time when staying home on a weekend night unless deathly sick was akin to blasphemy. Folks often partied their brains out in clubs and discos, which is definitely not happening now and hasn’t been for several years, long before the pandemic began. Risky behavior was much more accepted during that halcyon days after The Pill and before AIDS. On a grand scale I would say that it was an even more hedonistic decade than were the 1960s. Free love matured and became casual sex, and you didn’t have to watch what you said anywhere near the way you do now. Homeless were still bums. What amazes me is how few people seem to be nostalgic for those freer, more swinging times gone by. Given the chance I would return to that time I a heartbeat. Sure the time frame had it’s problems, but what bracketed period doesn’t. It was perhaps the best period in history in which to be a single solo traveler.