Ibn Khaldun's Theory of Dynasty Formation and Disintegration

[sbarrera]

To summarize: Khaldun relies heavily in his discourse on his concept of "group feeling," which I take to mean "social cohesion." He's speaking strictly about monarchical dynasties, as though that were the only form of government in existence. But the concepts he uses to describe a dynasty could be applied more generally to any institutional framework, and his concept of "royal authority" could be taken to mean "trust in institutions."

So by his theory, royal authority and group feeling (social cohesion and trust in institutions) are strong when a dynasty is founded, and then fade away with the passing generations. So I take it that after the founding, the dynasty is in a First Turning, and as the turnings progress, each new generation loses more of the group feeling Eventually the dynasty disintegrates and is replaced by a rival. This is a new founding event; this is what happens in the Fourth Turning. 

Again, Khaldun is talking about royal dynasties emerging out of tribal groups, but you could extend his thinking to different forms of government, for example the U.S. Constitution going through its transformations in the recent Crisis Eras.

Khaldun also states that "prestige lasts at best four generations," and details how this happens. I quoted him on generations in a different post, and will repeat the quote here.

Quote:The builder of the family's glory knows what it cost him to do the work, and he keeps the qualities that created his glory and made it last. The son who comes after him had personal contact with his father and thus learned those things from him. However, his is inferior to him in this respect, inasmuch as a person who learns things through study is inferior to a person who knows them from practical application. The third generation must be content with imitation and, in particular, with reliance upon tradition. This member is inferior to him of the second generation, inasmuch as a person who relies upon tradition is inferior to a person who exercises independent judgment.

The fourth generation, then, is inferior to the preceding ones in every respect. Its member has lost the qualities that preserved the edifice of its glory. He despises (those qualities).

The four generations can be defined as the builder, the one who has personal contact with the builder, the one who relies on tradition, and the destroyer.

In order, that would be the Hero, the Artist, the Prophet and the Nomad.