The Great Power Saeculum 4T

[Mikebert]

(09-07-2016, 02:32 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(09-07-2016, 12:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.

Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.

Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.

Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt...des/player

Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.

I read that book in junior high.  It had a chilling effect.  I read On the Beach in college.  About a decade ago I saw the film. It was hard to watch, I kept seeing my granddaughter as the child in the film.  Recently I saw Fail Safe and my blood ran cold.

I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.

In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.

"On the Beach" is complete rubbish, scientifically speaking. What was depicted in that story is not possible. Fall out and global circulation do not work that way. Of course, the point of that story was to scare people.

Of course not.  I knew that when I read it 40 years ago.  So what is your point?  Nuclear war isn't scary?